The race for the 2014 Supporters’ Shield has been reduced to a two team race, pending a DC United sacrificial offering to the Soccer Gods of course. The LA Galaxy and Seattle Sounders sit tied on 57 points, each with four games left to play. Seattle holds the first tie breaker with two more wins than LA such that if the two remain tied on points, Seattle will take the Shield. DC United have 51 points (also four games left), and the next likely contender for the Shield. No one else has a remote chance after that.
For those of you living under a rock, the Galaxy and Sounders will finish the regular season with a home-and-home series, October 19th in LA and 25th in Seattle. MLS fans have been salivating over this bonafide “Supporters’ Shield Showdown” for almost a month now. The League could not have scripted this better, and it will be a perfect end to the season and lead up to the playoffs. Clear your schedule, this is going to be two crackers between the best in MLS.
For these two games to live up to the hype however, it’s going to require they meet with both teams having a legitimate shot at winning the Shield. Should one of them stumble such that they need six points in the final two games, it won’t be as exciting. Suppose LA wins their match at home and forces second leg into a winner-take-all match. That second leg might be the most watched game of the regular season.
Seattle’s final two games before the Showdown are at Colorado and home against Vancouver. Colorado is a tough place to play in the altitude and is getting a bit cold now. Seattle has had trouble in the past there, but this Rapids team is devastated with injuries (especially losing Drew Moor) and is way out of the playoff picture. They’ll put up a fight, but Seattle should come out on top if they don’t let the altitude get to them.
Vancouver has made it back into the 5th spot in the west. Cascadia matches are normally unpredictable shootouts, but the Sounders are the better team. This will also be the first match up between the two in Seattle. The Sounders drew and lost the previous two at BC Place. The Whitecaps are back in the playoff picture more because of Portland falling off than their own resurgence. The Whitecaps have lost four of their last seven. Their loan wins in that stretch came against San Jose and RSL, but in both matches Vancouver converted a PK. Even with all the attacking options Vancouver has, Seattle is the better team and has a distinct advantage at home.
In short, I think Seattle rolls into Stub Hub with 63 points.
The LA Galaxy host Toronto then go on the road to FC Dallas. Toronto comes in desperate, but they only have one Michael Bradley. He can’t defend both flanks and shield the back line from Zardes and Keane. Their back line is very suspect, and unless Jermaine Defoe makes his return in this match, I think LA walks away with a victory even if TFC puts up a fight in the first half.
Dallas is not the best team in the conference, but their speed is lethal. The Galaxy win when they can dominate the flanks, use their speed, and victimize defensive mistakes. If there is any team in MLS as fast and as good on the flanks as LA, it’s Dallas. While they aren’t the best defensively, their back line has quietly gotten very good at putting out fires. Steven Keel is the even-keel foil to Matt Hedges. Hedges is the physical do-it-all defender, but can make mistakes sometimes. Keel is the clean up man who puts the fire out before it spreads. FC Dallas is third in the west in fewest goals allowed, behind only RSL and LA. The Galaxy will not be able to victimize them as effectively as they have other teams.
If there’s any game between these two teams that ends in a draw or a loss, it’s LA on the road to FC Dallas.
Combined with the fact that the second leg of the Supporters’ Shield Showdown is in Seattle AND Seattle has the tie breaker in the standings, the Seattle Sounders are in the driver’s seat to win the Shield.
The Galaxy are going to need a win in the Showdown regardless. A win at home against Toronto and Seattle and a draw at Dallas and Seattle, and the Galaxy win the Shield, regardless of what Seattle does. Getting four points out of six against Seattle is going to be a big challenge, pending a Sounder meltdown like this one. Or this one. Seems simple, but it won’t be easy.
Trolling aside, there’s a strong possibility the Showdown ends up in a win-loss or two draws, which doesn’t move the needle. This trophy and home field advantage through the playoffs is going to come down to the wire. The Shield also gives the winner a match up with a wild card team instead of having to play RSL in the first round. Both teams also play great at home. Should they meet in the semifinals, home field advantage could be pivotal. Oh, and there’s that little CONCACAF Champions League bid too.
This match up is so close, even the fancy stats community is having trouble picking. Our good friends at Sports Club Stats give Seattle the edge 55% to 44%, citing the schedule difference and Seattle holding the tie breaker.
American Soccer Analysis however gives LA the nod at 78% to 21%. They give Seattle only a 31% chance of winning in Colorado this weekend, while LA has a 61% chance to beat TFC. Harrison Crow, one of their stats gurus, explains that it’s LA’s xG (expected goals). They give the Rapids a 40% probability of beating Seattle this weekend. That could give LA a maximum three point cushion going into the Showdown. In that case, LA would just need to break even to win the Shield.
Personally, I still give Seattle the advantage on taking home the shield. The Galaxy’s best chance is through a meltdown by Seattle. While nonzero and very Seattle Sounders like, I don’t think that’s likely. I would give the Galaxy the advantage in the playoffs however. They have more experience and have been more successful in the past. Seattle’s defense is still their Achilles’ Heel. Zack Scott not returning in time due to his ankle injury would only exacerbate that situation. Soccer aside, this team seems to be on a mission to win for Landon Donovan, and the premature death of AJ DeLagarza’s son Luca has only galvanized the team.
The Supporters’ Shield Showdown could be an instant MLS classic. There could be more on the line in these two matches than in any other two games in MLS regular season history.
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