Just when Leafs fans think their team is on the right track to winning that big game or on the road back to the playoffs, their beloved squad finds a way to blow it. The “18 wheeler” as dubbed by former Leafs GM Brian Burke, has driven off the cliff too many times to count; The dreaded 2013 game seven vs. Boston, losing eight straight games in regulation in the month of March last season, and other years of starting great only to fade when the season ramps up.
The question is, what is keeping this team from taking the next step? Is it the players? Coaching? Management? Poor drafting and development? Unfortunately, it’s a combination of all those things and for the team to have long term success, that has to change.
When looking at the main core of players of Phil Kessel, Tyler Bozak, James van Riemsdyk, Nazem Kadri, Dion Phaneuf and Jonathan Bernier, they aren’t the most inspiring bunch. This is a group where leadership just seems to be lacking.
Phaneuf may have the captaincy but when comparing him to other captains around the league, he just doesn’t stack up. And when you look at other Leafs, who else is capable of wearing the “C” in the Toronto market? Joffrey Lupul is comfortable in front of the cameras and is a popular player but he is often injured and just doesn’t come across as captain material.
Kessel is one of those players where what you see is what you get. He will play all 82 games and pot around 30 goals a season. van Riemsdyk will rack up around 60 points and use his size to create chances. But when looking at the top two centers on the team in Bozak and Kadri, it doesn’t exactly invoke Stanley Cup visions dancing in your head.
The defense is a little more promising with guys like Morgan Rielly and Jake Gardiner but there isn’t that No.1 workhorse yet. Phaneuf is considered that guy but he isn’t in the class of Shea Weber, Drew Doughty, or P.K. Subban.
The fact that head coach Randy Carlyle was given a two year extension is puzzling to say the least. Carlyle’s style just doesn’t seem to fit the way this team is built. It’s no secret that Carlyle likes physical. tough, grinding teams but there aren’t too many Leafs that play that style. David Clarkson can, but hasn’t played like it in his time as a Leaf. The Leafs were a bad puck possession team last year as the goaltending duo of Bernier and James Reimer kept this team’s head above water for much of the season.
In terms of prospects, they have some nice ones in players like defensemen Matt Finn and Josh Leivo and of course the crown jewel William Nylander, but after them, there are guys who project to be NHLers, just more of the bottom six forward or 5th/6th defenseman category. Nothing wrong in having prospects like these, but the good teams find stars deep in the draft. Even with the Leafs, their first round is a little spotty such as taking Luke Schenn at fifth overall or trading picks to draft Tyler Biggs at 22nd overall in 2011.
In the case of Biggs, it’s not too late for him to turn it around, but he hasn’t shown enough the past few years to warrant a first round selection. It’s especially painful when seeing guys like Brandon Saad, Tomas Jurco and John Gibson go after him. For many Leafs fans, Biggs is a reminder of the Burke era, where size and truculence was the motto.
On the management side, they went all out in hiring new front office staff that includes new assistant GM Kyle Dubas, who is huge on analytics. As the league trends towards puck possession, it is certainly worth it for a team like the Leafs who aspire to join the NHL’s elite to look into it. But if the Leafs are going to get better, management decisions have to better and this team needs an identity. This summer, the Leafs signed several forwards highlighted by Daniel Winnik, David Booth (who is already injured) and Mike Santorelli, while bringing back former Leafs Leo Komarov and Matt Frattin.
The one thing that can’t be stressed enough about the Leafs is they need a #1 do-it-all center. Contending teams are strong down the middle. Bozak and Kadri are valuable but they just aren’t the backbone of a contender. Many claim Bozak’s chemistry with Kessel but I feel it’s Kessel making Bozak better, not the other way around.
To be honest, I feel there is more chemistry between Kessel and van Riemsdyk. Both are high picks so they have a pedigree most lack and van Riemsdyk uses his size to create space and has pretty good hands for a big man. In contrast, Kessel has the speed and one of the best shots in the league and watching a Leafs game, it becomes obvious those two feed off each other more and complement better despite both of them being goal scorers.
I think for the Leafs to have sustained success, the core group of players has to change. This team has time and time again failed to elevate their games at crucial moments. It’s not an excuse to say this is a young team; Kessel, Phaneuf, Bozak and Lupul are all in their prime while van Riemsdyk isn’t exactly a young kid anymore either.
Years past has seen goaltending taken the brunt of the blame but Bernier has been the best goalie this team has had in a long time and he did more than his share of keeping this team alive. The players haven’t done their best under a tough coach like Carlyle, while the pretty easy-going Ron Wilson was let loose before him.
Management has to look at this team from a critical standpoint. Most of the core is locked-up to big contracts that, for the most part, don’t justify their on-ice performance. They may been enamored with analytics and numbers but right now the only number that matters is how many games need to be won, something the Leafs have trouble doing. If this team wants to be playing meaningful games from April onward, it’s time for management to make some tough decisions and for the players to step up.
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