There were two teams that were supposed to run away with their respective divisions: The Detroit Tigers and the Oakland Athletics. One of them did won the division, and that’s why the Kansas City Royals are here. The other, Oakland, did not, and that’s why they are here. Now, these two teams have one game to prove that they are worthy of moving on and playing the Los Angeles Angels in the American League Division Series.
James Shields (14-8, 3.21 ERA) and Jon Lester (16-11, 2.46 ERA) will face off tonight at 8:07 pm in Kansas City in the American League Wildcard game, in hopes of carrying their teams further in the postseason. Both pitchers have been in the playoffs before, but with different teams. Lester with the Red Sox in 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2013, had a record of 6-4 with a 2.11 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. Shields’ numbers aren’t as compelling. He is 2-4 with a 4.98 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in 2008, 2010, and 2011 with the Tampa Bay Rays.
It is no question as to why both of these teams are here: Pitching. Not only do both teams have above average starting rotations, they both have top-notch bullpens. Oakland has the advantage in ERA at 2.91 over Kansas City’s 3.30, Kansas City’s advantage lies with the final three pitchers: Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis, and Greg Holland. Those three have a combined 258 strikeouts. Like the Royals, the A’s also have a very capable back end of the bullpen, but are very average in the middle reliever department. I give a very slight advantage to the Royals in the bullpen, only because of the late inning hurlers.
The saying, “Defense wins championships.” Doesn’t just apply in football, but baseball as well. Players like Josh Donaldson for the A’s, who has a good shot at winning a gold glove this season, and Alex Gordon for the Royals, who will most likely be a gold glover for the fourth year in a row, have had huge impacts on the way their teams’ season has gone. Donaldson has a dWAR of 2.7 and a WAR of 7.4. On the flipside, Alex Gordon for the Royals is the best defender on the team. Gordon has a WAR of 6.6 and a dWAR of 2.6. I give the advantage to the A’s because Kansas City makes way too many mental errors, and give up way too many unnecessary runs.
Though no lineups have been revealed yet, the A’s will probably go with: Coco Crisp CF, Adam Dunn DH, Josh Donaldson 3B, Brandon Moss LF, Josh Reddick RF, Jed Lowrie SS, Stephen Vogt 1B, Giovani Soto C, and Eric Sogard 2B. Adam Dunn is the biggest power threat in the A’s lineup, and can change the game with one swing of the bat. Kansas City doesn’t have any big boppers like the A’s, but their strength is in speed. The Royals lineup will probably look something like this: Alcides Escobar SS, Norichika Aoki RF, Lorenzo Cain CF, Eric Hosmer 1B, Billy Butler DH, Alex Gordon LF, Salvador Perez C, Omar Infante 2B, and Mike Moustakas 3B. It will be likely that Billy Butler will sit, and Nori Aoki will be slid into the role of DH, Jarrod Dyson to center field, and Lorenzo Cain to right field.
There will be plenty of players to watch in this game. Specifically, along with the pitchers Lester and Shields, look for Gordon, Escobar, and Nori Aoki for the Royals, and for the Athletics Donaldson, Vogt, and Reddick, to provide their respective teams with a spark.
I will give the overall advantage to the Oakland Athletics. The Royals have lost to Jon Lester three times this season, and were even no-hit by Lester in 2008. For the A’s, anything less than the ALCS will be a disappointment because of all the moves at the trade deadline. For the Royals and a fan-base that hasn’t experienced the playoffs in 29 years, a win would certainly be a nice treat. Even though the standings say otherwise, Kansas City is a clear underdog in my eyes.
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