Yes, it’s early. Yes, the Texans have benefited greatly from an easy schedule. Yes, there are other deserving candidates. And yes, history is against him.
But when you look at what J.J. Watt is doing for the Houston Texans this season and ask yourself if it’s enough for him to win the NFL’s Most Valuable Player award, the only reasonable answer is a resounding YES.
The Texans are off to a 3-1 start and Watt is almost solely responsible for two of those three victories. Here’s a quick rundown of what Watt has done in his four games this season:
- Week 1 vs. Redskins: a sack, a fumble recovery, five quarterback hits, two tackles for loss, one batted-down pass and a blocked extra point attempt (Texans win 17-6)
- Week 2 at Raiders: catches his first career touchdown pass while lined up as a tight end (Texans win 30-14)
- Week 3 at Giants: records a sack early on before Giants run the ball down Houston’s throat (Texans lose 30-17)
- Week 4 vs. Bills: 11 quarterback hits (two of which were negated by roughing the passer penalties) and an 80-yard interception return for a touchdown (Texans win 23-17)
Sunday’s game against Buffalo requires closer examination to drive home just how unstoppable Watt can be. He had more quarterback hits by himself (nine in all) than any other defensive unit had combined. His touchdown came with the Bills leading 10-7 and threatening to take a 10-point lead, a potentially insurmountable advantage given the difficulties the Texans had moving the ball (they rushed the ball 24 times for 37 yards). Instead, Watt jumped an E.J. Manuel pass and flew down the field to give Houston a 14-10 lead they would never relinquish.
His numbers for the season: off the charts. Consider this: if Watt were to sit out the remainder of the year, his QB pressures (sacks, hits, and hurries) would still rank him in the top-20 in the league based on last year’s numbers.
https://twitter.com/PFF/status/516722331587448832
His nine QB hits in the Buffalo game? Only eight defensive ends had more for the entire 2013 season. His 16 quarterback hits this season? More than double his nearest competitor. His Pro Football Focus grade of +13.5 for Sunday’s game? The best in history, breaking his own record from a season ago.
But is it enough to win him an MVP award? If numbers were all that mattered, certainly Watt would have gotten more consideration following his 2012 Defensive Player of the Year campaign. Watt finished that season with 20.5 sacks (equaling Lawrence Taylor’s career-best from his 1986 MVP season), 23 tackles for loss, and 16 passes defended in what some would argue was the greatest single season by a defensive end in league history. If he didn’t win it then, why would he win it now?
Watt’s MVP candidacy calls to mind the upstart boxing contender slugging it out with the champ in a see-saw battle that goes to the judges’ scorecards. Inevitably, a ringside pundit will remind viewers that the challenger can’t just win, he’s got to win beyond a shadow of a doubt before he can snatch the belt from the champ’s waist and fasten it to his own.
It’s an uphill battle for sure. But as those hopping aboard the J.J. Watt MVP bandwagon will tell you, if there’s anyone who can do it, Watt’s the man.
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