We are now five weeks into the season. Many teams have played five games while almost all have played at least four. It’s still early in the season, yes. But now it is probably time to stop pretending the end of the season will play out the way we expected at the beginning and time to move our expectations based on what we have actually seen on the field.
Many media outlets, both mainstream and internet bloggers, have been predicting their four teams for the inaugural College Football Playoff since the season began. The most common pairings of teams just about everywhere are Florida State, Oklahoma (some replace with Baylor), Oregon (some replace with Stanford or USC), and Alabama (some replace with some other SEC West team).
This makes sense. It’s taking the expected champions of the four widely-thought strongest conferences and putting them in the bracket, in some order or another. The problem with this, though, is that it ignores the fact that we have to be worried about selecting teams, not conferences. I began to touch on this a bit last week, but now is when we really need to start looking at the resumes of teams. Teams have built their nonconference resumes for the most part, so giving the scenarios about how conference play will shake out is much easier.
I cannot stress this enough. Every team, even teams from the same conference, have a unique resume. If I had the space, I would look at what every single team needs to do to reasonably expect a CFP berth. That is the only comprehensive way to map out a season, tedious as it may be. To do anything less risks missing something.
For example, let’s start with the Big XII. Based on the aforementioned widely-used model, the champion is in the CFP. And an undefeated champion will be (let’s be honest, we are not going to have four or more undefeated power conference teams). But if there is a 1-loss champion, who that team is makes a world of difference. There will likely be three or four ranked Big XII teams at seasons’ end, so a champion will have faced two or three ranked teams in conference. That’s not a lot, but it’s not awful either. So a team like Oklahoma, who played Tennessee out-of-conference in addition to that, will have a solid resume among 1-loss teams. But if that 1-loss champion is Baylor, they are in trouble. That likely means a 2-1 record against ranked teams at best, along with an abysmal nonconference schedule. Baylor is in if they run the table, but they are probably heading towards the very back of the line of 1-loss teams if it comes down to that.
While we’re looking at teams who could have a hole in a 1-loss resume, we have to discuss, first and foremost, Florida State. Now, it looks like Florida State’s only remaining losable game might be Notre Dame. Then again, with the way they played against N.C. State they could be in a lot of tight games. But the fact is, it is not impossible that Florida State’s only year-end ranked opponent will be the Irish. Yes, Clemson most likely ends up ranked and Oklahoma State or N.C. State could also, but the pickings are very slim on that resume. Their eight conference opponents have gone a combined 18-7 in nonconference play so far this year. Some of those losses have been to good teams (and Boston College has that win over USC), but that’s not such a great percentage for a Power 5 conference. It’s hard to think that the committee will punish Florida State too much for a nonconference loss to Notre Dame, but even a 12-1 Florida State just will not have much meat on their resume. Right now Florida State is getting a pass in the polls by being the defending national champions. But if they need to trust the committee to pick them over other 1-loss teams, it could make for some very nervous nights in Tallahassee.
This is the type of thinking we need to do when we look at teams’ CFP potentials. We need to dig into the nitty-gritty of the resumes. We need to look at who they’ve played and who they will play. It’s not about what conference a team is in and that conference’s record in nonconference games. Because a team is not a conference. And a team doesn’t play their entire conference. Opponents’ records in nonconference games–as well as opponents’ records in conference games against non-opponents–matter so much more than the conference’s standing itself. An SEC East team just won’t have the same resume as a team from the West. And we can and need to break things down further than that. It is the entire resume that matters when looking at the CFP contenders. And the sooner that fans and the media get used to this idea the sooner we can have the proper conversation about who is the less shock and indignation there will be when the first of the committee’s rankings have a few surprises in a month. It’s all about the resume. Good wins, bad losses, everything in between, and maybe a little bit of the “eye test” as well will be what gets a team in or leaves a team out.
What the four CFP teams won’t be, though, is simply the champions of the top four conferences. Now, those champions might end the year with the best resumes. After all, it’s hard to win a Power 5 conference without building a strong resume on the way, barring a ridiculous upset in a conference championship game or something like that. In fact, it will probably make life much easier on the committee if those four conference champions have the best resumes. But in the end of the day, it will be the playoff resumes that determine who will play in the CFP. Nothing else.
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