It’s that time of the season again where I try to make some sense of whats unfolding in the NFL. Those who know me are aware that I never like to wager the first two or three weeks. It is tough to get a read on just how good or bad a team really is on just a couple games. Teams are finding their identity, dealing with injuries and adjusting to new schemes, new coaches and new plays. But the biggest reason I always wait a few weeks is that there isn’t any true line value yet. The reason is because the geneal public and the media always love to overreact to what they have just seen. When they do, the line moves to counter the volume of bets placed on this overreaction and causes a value proposition that smart bettors (known as Sharps) jump on. I have always had a saying when it comes to betting on NFL football–“When everyone else is zigging, a smart bettor should be zagging”. Historically, there is money to be made by being a contrarian and betting against the public consensus.
Last week, for those who follow me on twitter, I released five picks to transition into my new weekly article to be published every week before the Sunday games. The picks were three wins (Kansas City, New York Giants and Seattle), one loss (a blown lead by St Louis) and one push (another blown lead by Cleveland). Without further adieu, lets get to week four in the NFL.
NFL Week 4 Picks Against the Spread
1) MINNESOTA VIKINGS +3 (Atlanta at Minnesota)
This is the perfect ‘over reaction’ game. Thursday night the Atlanta Falcons annihilated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 56-14 and suddenly everyone has forgotten about last seasons epic fail in Atlanta or how the Cincinnati Bengals destroyed them just two weeks ago. Don’t get me wrong, the Falcons have a decent team, but they are not anywhere near one of the best teams in the league. Las Vegas is begging people to bet on Atlanta by throwing up such a weak line, as most casual bettors would assume Atlanta would be favored by six or seven points here. With Adrian Peterson not playing, and the rookie Teddy Bridgewater set to take the helm as the Vikings starting quarterback there is a lot of unknown in Minnesota.
This is where the sharps jump aboard. The Vegas lookahead line before last week had Minnesota favored by 1.5 so the sharps are getting value here. Matt Ryan is abysmal outside of a dome on the road historically and will struggle compared to the numbers he has put up so far this year. Over 85% of the betting public is on the Falcons, which usually means the other side is the right side. Sharp money has been coming on Minnesota all week, and I will be joining them.
I will gladly take the three points Vegas is giving me, but we wont need them. Minnesota wins this game outright.
*Minnesota 24 Atlanta 20*
2) CAROLINA PANTHERS +3.5 (Carolina at Baltimore)
What in the world am I doing backing the Panthers after such a horrible loss at home to the Steelers last week? Didn’t that Steelers team that shredded Carolina get a beat down handed to them by the Baltimore Ravens a couple weeks ago? Shouldn’t Baltimore be able to roll over the Panthers at home?
All good questions. But I truly believe the Panthers are the right side and will either win this game outright or at least stay within the magical number of three. Baltimore is an eight or nine win team, but they don’t have a lethal offense and will struggle to put up a lot of points on this stout Panthers defense. Baltimore, who is 1-4 against-the-spread at home in its last five contests, will also miss having Dennis Pitta to throw to. Coming off a couple divisional battles it will be tough for them to be ready for this game.
The Panthers on the other hand will want to show that last weeks loss was a fluke. Cam Newton always bounces back with a big game coming off of a loss. Carolina’s run game will also get a boost with the return of DeAngelo Williams. Expect a tight game in Baltimore this week, but cash the ticket as Carolina stays within three.
*Carolina 21 Baltimore 20*
3) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS +7.5 (Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh)
This is another prime overreaction on both teams. Tampa Bay’s loss to Atlanta was horrible. Pittsburgh’s dominating win in Carolina was very impressive. I believe we are getting three points of line value here as the Steelers should be favored by 4.5 max. When the rest of the world is selling their Buccaneer stock I will be buying as much as I can.
The Steelers may be a little over confident in this contest coming off such an impressive win and hearing all week how good they are in the media and how horrible Tampa Bay is. Pittsburgh is decimated with injuries right now and will be facing a desperate team that is in a ‘must-win’ situation. Many pundits had Tampa Bay as a surprise team coming into this season, and they still have a decent team. With Josh McCown injured the Bucs will turn to Mike Glennon. I see this as a good thing. Glennon being handed his lead role back will take every effort to keep the starting position. McCown cashed in on his great play the last part of 2013, but lets be real for a second–he is a 35-year-old journeyman backup. The Bucs will rally around Glennon and keep this very close. I wouldn’t be surprised if they pull the upset here.
*Pittsburgh 24 Tampa Bay 23*
4) BUFFALO BILLS +3.5 (Buffalo at Houston)
The Bills are one week removed from being one of the undefeated teams in the league. One week later and public perception on the Bills is down. For one, they should never have been rated so high after two wins, but a loss to a top-tier team like the Chargers shouldn’t have people jumping ship just yet. The Bills are going to be hungry for a bounce back here, and I fully expect the stout and underrated Bills defense to want to lay a beating on former quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick here.
We also have a “breather alert” situation here for Houston. After this game they face two rivals in the Colts and Cowboys as well as tough matchup against the Steelers. How do you expect them to get up for the Bills. Take a deep breathe, place your wager, and I will see you at the counter as we cash this ticket. Bills win outright.
*Buffalo 20 Houston 17*
5) NEW YORK JETS +1.5 (Detroit at New York)
Who in their right mind would bet against a team that just held the Green Bay Packers to seven points in a 19-7 victory? Who would bet on Geno Smith to take down Matthew Stafford and Calvin “Megatron” Johnson? With well over 70% of the bets coming on the road favorite there isn’t a lot of people. I am definitely zagging on this one. I am not as confident on this one, but I have to go with the trends here.
In the last 21 games the Jets have played at home following a home loss they are an amazing 18-3 agianst-the-spread. On the other side of the ball the Lions are an abysmal 10-24 against-the-spread against teams with a losing record in the previous 24 games. Trends favoring the Jets combined with public pounding the Lions leaves me no choice but to hop on the Rex Ryan bandwagon this weekend.
*New York 24 Detroit 21*
6) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +13.5 (Jacksonville at San Diego)
There’s not much to analyze here. Sharp bettors will always bet on a team that is getting 13+ points. I could see the awful Jags losing by more, but if you are giving me two touchdowns, I will take it every single time. If you just blindly followed double-digit dawgs you could make a lot of money.
Also, there is a lot of public overreaction here as well. San Diego has looked great while Jacksonville look awful. Before last week the look ahead line in Vegas was sitting around 9.5 to 10, so take this to the bank as Jacksonville gets a back door cover.
*San Diego 24 Jacksonville 14*
Thank you for reading. Please take a moment to follow me on Twitter –@KEVINBRADLEY17. Support LWOS by following us on Twitter – @LastWordOnSport and @LWOSworld – and “liking” our Facebook page.
For the latest in sports injury news, check out our friends at Sports Injury Alert.
Have you tuned into Last Word On Sports Radio? LWOS is pleased to bring you 24/7 sports radio to your PC, laptop, tablet or smartphone. What are you waiting for? GO!
