Even bad teams have players with fantasy value. Here’s a look at some widely available players that may (or may not) have value even though their teams are in last place. Players are listed from least likely to most likely to help down the stretch.
Burton is currently owned in 4% of leagues. His (limited) value lies in the fact that regular closer Glen Perkins is injured which leaves a vacuum at the closer spot for the Twins. Personally, I would pass on Burton due to a low chance of success. His FIP (4.27) & xFIP (4.58) are glaring red flags and should come with warning signs and his 6.24 K per 9 innings indicates that he should not be trusted to be a closer pick up.
Bottom Line: Run for the hills
Webster is currently owned in 1% of leagues. He is slated to start Thursday’s game against the Rays. While his numbers this year leave a lot to be desired (5.54 ERA/1.50 WHIP), he has pitched better in September (3.18 ERA).
I could (possibly) buy him as an option if the Red Sox were playing on the road where he has pitched a little bit better. However, the Red Sox are playing at home where he has struggled badly (7.03 ERA). Even though he has been better in September, I would advise against plugging him in for his start on Thursday. He’s unlikely to rack up strikeouts (5.37 per 9 this year) and his FIP/xFIP numbers (4.59/5.15) indicate that his value is extremely limited.
Bottom Line: Don’t be fooled by decent September numbers
Galvis is owned in 4% of leagues and is eligible at 2B, 3B, SS & OF. While he has an unsightly .173 AVG, he has hit better in September hitting .246 3 HR 8 RBI in 19 G.
While he’s not going to give you much power, I still think Galvis is better than what his 2014 numbers indicate. His BABIP this year is at .184 indicating that he has been one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball. Even when adjusting towards his .247 career BABIP which is well below average, he is at least a .230 hitter.
Despite some recent signs of improvement and factoring out for a balance in luck, Galvis’ current ability is still well below what would be needed to help your fantasy team.
Bottom Line: Not as bad as .173 AVG indicates, still not good enough to help your team
Odor is currently owned in 4% of leagues and only eligible at 2B. He is only 20, and his future appears to be bright but what about the final stretch? While he isn’t currently a must have player, I am surprised his ownership rate is this low. He has provided at least some pop (8 HR) despite having a low HR/FB rate of 7.3% and his AVG is at least not a category killer at .258 (which is close to his current actual ability).
He has hit better (and more often) against righties but he has actually hit significantly better on the road (which hurts his last weekend value). Still, if you are in desperate need at 2B, you could definitely do worse.
Bottom Line: Substantial long-term upside, not quite sold on strong finish to 2014
Coghlan is currently owned in 18% of leagues and is eligible at 3B & OF. He has over-achieved somewhat this year with a .336 BABIP (versus .321 career total). In reality, I think he’s closer to a .270 hitter (compared to his .281 total for 2014) and he’s not exactly a reliable power source.
That being said, he finishes the season off against a steady stream of right handed pitching and a Brewers team that has apparently forgotten how to win ballgames. This year, he has hit .290 against righties (compared to .253) and hit six of his HR against them. While his long-term value is much lower than it is for Roughned Odor, things are stacked in his favor for him to have a productive last weekend.
Bottom Line: Negligible long-term value but could be set up to finish 2014 off strong
Pollock is owned in 29% of leagues and is eligible at OF only. Based on what he has done over 269 PA, he would likely be owned in more than 50% of leagues if not for the time he missed due to injury and playing for one of the worst teams in baseball this year.
Granted, I’m not sure he’s going to hit .308 in the long-term (I see him as closer to a .280 hitter. But he has established a track record of giving owners double digit stolen bases and he would have likely provided double digit HR power if he would have stayed healthy this year.
For this weekend, Pollock has the advantages of a) playing at home and b) facing a steady stream of right handed pitching, two factors that both play into his favor. His team may be going nowhere but he does have some potential to put your fantasy team over the top.
Bottom Line: Very strong short & long-term value, pick him up if you have the chance
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Ownership rates found on Yahoo! Fantasy
All numbers referenced found on fangraphs.com
