Welcome back to Top Shelf Prospects. It’s that time again–major junior hockey is back and we’re here to preview the new season for you. While teams have already played their first game in the QMJHL, things are set to start on September 19th in the WHL and on September 24th in the OHL. With that in mind, we will start our division previews out east, then go west, and finally finish in Ontario this year. You can check out our previous Top Shelf Prospects articles here.
OHL Central Division Preview
The Contenders (In order of how I predict they will finish)
Niagara Ice Dogs: The Ice Dogs barely squeaked into the playoffs before giving eventual Eastern Confence champ North Bay all they could handle in a gruelling seven-game series. The team returns most of their key players from last year, and with those players one-year older, they should be even better. The Ice Dogs had a very good first line last year, and with Coyotes first rounder Brendan Perlini, Toronto Maple Leafs prospect Carter Verhaege, and Anthony DiFruscia all returning, they could be amongst the best lines in the conference this season. Newly acquired Cody Payne should team with Jordan Maletta, and 2015 Draft eligible forwards Graham Knott and Hayden McCool will provide some secondary offence. That said the defence will be the real strength of the team. Niagar returns their entire top four from last season in 2015 draft eligible Vincent Dunn, Blue Jackets draft pick Blake Siebenaler, Stars draft pick Aaron Haydon, and overager Luke Mercer. They also add 2013 New York Rangers 4th rounder Ryan Mantha to the team after acquiring his rights from Sault Ste. Marie and then getting him to commit to the team in August. Behind them all Stars draft pick Brent Moran had a solid season as a 17-year-old and should be even better this year. Overall the Ice Dogs are the most complete team in the division, and primed for a major jump up the standings. To me this division is the Ice Dogs to lose and while I will name a number two and three team I can’t see them really challenging Niagara.
North Bay Battalion: The Battalion were one of the best defensive teams in the OHL last season, and it took them all the way to the OHL final. They should be just as good defensively this year, with Jake Smith returning in goal; and Marcus McIvor, Kyle Wood, Brenden Miller, Kyle Locke and Riley Bruce returning on the blue line. The fact that they can keep the puck out of their net as well as anyone will help them up the standings. The question mark though, is how many goals will the Battalion be able to score after losing Barclay Goodrow, Vincent Praplan, Matt MacLeod and Ben Thomson. 2013 Dallas draft pick, and now Ottawa Senators prospect, Nick Paul is their leading returning scorer from last year and will be looked upon to lead the offence. He will need to take a big step forward though, as he had just 46 points in 67 games last year. He did play extremely well in the playoffs though with 12 goals and 18 points in 22 games. 2015 NHL Draft eligible Brett McKenzie will also be asked to take a big step forward in his sophomore season as will Kings draftee Mike Amadio. Overall though, I see them as being very competitive, but they just won’t be able to score enough to be a true contender.
Barrie Colts: It would appear that the Barrie Colts have lost 2014 first overall pick Aaron Ekblad. While nothing is certain, I would be shocked if he didn’t stick with the Florida Panthers. Even with that loss they still return a strong team. Up front overagers Garrett Hooey and Joseph Blandisi; Buffalo Sabres second round pick Brendan Lemieux, Sharks draftee Kevin Labanc, and Andrew Mangiapane will be expected to help lead the offense. Roy Radke committed from Shattuck St. Mary’s and is also looking to have a big season. Still the Colts have to make up for the losses of Andreas Athanasiou, Zach Hall, Mitchell Theoret and Tyson Fawcett and that won’t be easy. On defence the team will feature CJ Garcia, Josh Carrick, and Michael Webster and Barrie will hope that their experience will help make up for the loss of Ekblad. They have also added Rasmus Andersson as an import from Sweden and are expecting big things from the 2015 NHL Draft eligible. The best draft eligible player on this team though is goaltender MacKenzie Blackwood, who could be the top goalie drafted in 2015.
Players to Watch
Brendan Lemieux, Left Wing, Barrie Colts: A second roud pick of the Buffalo Sabres, Brendan is the son of former NHLer Claude Lemieux. Brendan Lemieux plays the same in your face, pest like, borderline dirty style that defined his father’s career, for better or worse. He is always involved along the boards, in front of the net or in any scrum that comes his way, and is a real pain to play against. Lemieux loves to chirp and can be a real agitator out there on the ice. He also has some real offensive talent, including a good shot and a quick release. Lemieux cycles the puck well down low and makes smart passes to teammates. If given space he is willing to drive the net and can finish in tight. He does well in battles in front of the net and on the boards. If there is a criticism it is that he sometimes forces plays and doesn’t always wait for a great opportunity, trying a low percentage shot, or to force a pass through a lane that just isn’t open.
Spencer Martin, Goaltender, Mississauga Steelheads: After being a 2013 Draft pick of the Colorado Avalanche, Martin had a rough year statistically. That said, he was playing behind a very young defence in Mississauga, and was often called upon to make a lot of saves. He made enough to get the Steelheads into the playoffs though, and with the team maturing, you can bet on a better year in 2014-15. Martin is part of the new breed of taller goaltenders that NHL teams have started to fall in love with in recent years. He takes advantage of his size, and challenges shooters, by coming out of his net and playing his angles very well. Martin plays a solid butterfly style and uses his extremely strong and quick legs to take away the bottom of the net very effectively. Up top he has a quick glove hand, and is decent on the blocker side. His technique is very good for a young goalie. Martin has solid lateral movement, and tracks the puck well. He moves post to post quickly to take away cross ice opportunities. He also is decent at handling the puck and can help his defencemen by starting the breakout. Like many young goalies, Martin can sometimes have an issue with rebound control, and he will need to focus on improving that aspect of his game going forward. More importantly though, he will need to work on his mental game. When things spiralled out of control in the second half of last season, he had a hard time getting back in the groove. Martin needs to be able to get past things and recover when he lets in a bad goal, instead of allowing a 2nd or 3rd soft goal to get past him. This should come with more maturity though.
Stefan Leblanc, Defence, Mississauga Steelheads: Was the Steelheads best defenceman after a trade brought him in from Sudbury at mid-season. Excellent skater with strong passing skills and a good point shot. His positioning is good in the defensive zone, and despite the fact he needs to add some muscle, he’s not afraid of anyone and doesn’t back down from physical confrontations. One area he does struggle with is speedy forwards going to the outside.
Brendan Perlini, Left Wing, Niagara Ice Dogs: A first round pick of the Arizona Coyotes, Perlini will miss the beginning of the season with a broken hand. He is a very good skater, with excellent speed and acceleration. He couples this with very good agility to be deadly off the rush. He is extremely hard to stop one-on-one. Add to that the good balance and power to be able to fight through checks and you have a lot of offensive potential here. In the offensive zone, Perlini possesses very good hockey sense, good creativity and excellent vision to be a dynamic playmaker with the puck on his stick. He has good stickhandling, and puck protection skills needed to extend plays and give his linemates time to get open. He is very good in the cycle game. Perlini has shown off a much improved shot and release this season, and this is the biggest change in his offensive game. He has a great wrist shot, and also has a very good one-timer. While Perlini has great height, he could stand to put on more muscle and play a more physical game going forward. Perlini is also good defensively.
Carter Verhaeghe, Centre, Niagara Ice Dogs: Verhaeghe exceeded expectations last year, as the Toronto Maple Leafs prospect had a very solid season for the Ice Dogs. He is a smooth skater, with very good technique that leads to excellent top end speed and acceleration. Verhaeghe is very good at carrying the puck through the neutral zone and gaining the line with a successful zone entry. He is also a strong playmaker for Niagara with very good vision. Verhaeghe has excellent stickhandling and can be very slippery in the offensive zone, and has the ability to make his linemates better with tape to tape passes.
Nick Paul, Left Wing/Centre, North Bay Battalion: Nick Paul was a fourth round pick of the Dallas Stars in the 2013 NHL draft and was traded to the Ottawa Senators in the Jasson Spezza deal. A power winger, Paul has a long and powerful skating stride. While his speed is just average, it is the power and balance that will be his biggest assets as he goes forward. Paul can fight through checks, and protects the puck extremely well down low, due to his size and skating ability. He can make solid passes or take the puck to the net off the cycle. He battles in the corrners for loose pucks and goes to the front of the net without it. Paul could stand to work on his stickhandling though, as he will need to improve this or will be limited to being a grinder at the next level.
Mike Amadio, Centre, North Bay Battalion: Drafted by the Los Angeles Kings in the third round of the 2014 NHL Draft, Amadio played a very defensive role for the Battalion last year. He was used to check the other team’s top line, to take key faceoffs in the Battalion zone, and to play on the first penalty kill unit. Over the course of these tough minutes Amadio still put up 12 goals and 38 points. I see a big jump in production as Amadio is given a bigger role offensively. He is very good skater, with strong acceleration, good top end speed, and excellent agility. Amadio also possesses a decent shot and release, and strong playmaking abilities off the cycle.
Nick Baptiste, Left Wing, Sudbury Wolves: A third round pick of the Buffalo Sabres in 2013, Baptiste put up 45 goals and 89 points for the Wolves last season. Baptiste’s offensive game is very simple, and based on power. His best work is done down close to the goal line, and he is extremely effective on the cycle. He protects the puck extremely well, using his body to shield it. Out of the cycle, Baptiste can power his way to the front of the net. He has a decent shot and release, but Baptiste scores the vast majority of his goals within 10-15 feet of the goal line. Baptiste drives hard to the net, and battles for position in front, banging home rebounds, and firing home passes. He also has good passing skills coming out of the cycle. Baptiste wins a ton of board battles and plays a very robust physical game. He has a very powerful skating stride. The power he generates allows him to battle through checks and play his game. His strong lower body gives him great balance and he is very hard to knock off the puck. His top end speed has really improved as has his acceleration and this gives him the ability to take a defender wide and then drive the net. His edgework and agility are good, but Baptiste’s game is built on power, not finesse. When the Wolves traded Matthew Campagna, they sent a clear message that they were rebuilding, so watch for Baptiste to be moved before the mid-season trade deadline. He would make a great addition to any contender.
2015 Draft Eligible Players to Watch
Rasmus Andersson, Defence, Barrie Colts: A late 96, Andersson joins the Colts as an import out of Sweden after playing two seasons for Malmo in the Allsvenskan. He’s a solid two way defender, with excellent mobility due to his great skating ability. He is able to move the puck with a good first pass, and through skating it himself as he also has good stickhandling ability. Andersson also shows excellent positioning, anticipation and hockey sense in his own zone. He is able to create turnovers with his fast stick, and is able to quickly transition those turnovers into offensive opportunities. Andersson should take on a lot of the minutes that Aaron Ekblad got last season, and while he’s not quite at the level of Ekblad, he is a possible first round draft pick.
MacKenzie Blackwood, Goaltender, Barrie Colts: Blackwood enters the season as the favorite to be the first goalie taken in the 2015 draft after playing 45 games for the Colts last season. Already at 6’4″ he has the ideal size that teams look for in goaltenders. He uses that size effectively and comes out to challenge shooters and take away the amount of net they have to look at. He is almost always square to the shooter, even on cross ice passes as he gets across very quickly. Blackwood plays a strong butterfly technique with strong legs that take away the bottom of the net, and an excellent glove hand. While he has very good rebound control for a goalie his age, it can be improved still. He does a very good job of recovering quickly and getting square to the puck when he does give up a rebound though. Blackwood also is a very good stickhandler and passer, not being afraid to leave his crease to play the puck.
Roy Radke, Right Wing, Barrie Colts: There was a lot of fanfare this summer when the Colts inked Roy Radke. He spent last season with Shattuck Saint Mary’s and most assumed that the 2012 OHL draft pick would head the college route. Unlike the other players on this list, we haven’t seen Radke play yet, but have been told he was excellent in the Colts pre-season. Radke is listed at 6’2″ and is said to combine that size with excellent skill off the wing. He is one player we are very intrigued to see.
Vince Dunn, Defence, Niagara Ice Dogs: Dunn is an outstanding skater. He has good speed in both directions, excellent agility, and very good pivots. This mobility defines his game in all areas. He is a very good puck-moving defenceman as he combines that skating ability with the puckhandling skills to skate the puck out of dangerous areas, and led the rush. He also has very good vision and passing skills, making strong breakout passes, and quarterbacking the play on the powerplay. Dunn is willing to use his body to defensively, throwing hits and blocking shots. He could stand to work on his gap control, as he sometimes gives forwards too much room on the rush, when he has the skating ability to really close down and take away their time and space a lot better. Still Dunn has outstanding skill and could be a first round pick.
Graham Knott, Left Wing, Niagara Ice Dogs: Graham Knott has excellent size at 6’3″ and is another potential power forward. He loves to hit, and does so in all three zones. Knott getting in quickly on the forecheck and finishes his checks. He also provides strong defensive support in his own zone and will level an opponent down low in support against the cycle. Knott plays a power forward’s game driving to the net with the puck on his stick, whether that means going around an opponent or through them. He has soft hands in tight to the net, and a good shot and release from further out. His skating is decent, but it is one area that he could improve with a bit of refinement in his technique.
Brett McKenzie, Centre, North Bay Battalion: McKenzie jumped right into the North Bay lineup last year as a 16-year-old, however he was mostly used on the lower lines. Now with so much of North Bay’s offence not returning to the team he could find himself as the team’s top centre, giving him plenty of opportunity to show off for the 2015 NHL draft. McKenzie is a power center who gets in quickly on the forecheck with his good speed and strong skating stride. When he gets there he finishes his hits and causes turnovers. He also uses his good size to protect the puck down low on the cycle and establish position in front of the net. If he can add some muscle to that frame he can be even more effective. McKenzie has a decent shot and a good release which he uses often. His vision and pssing skills are decent, but he’s very much a shoot first player.
Kyle Capobianco, Defence, Sudbury Wolves: On last year’s veteran Wolves team, the then 16-year-old Capobianco saw very limited even strength minutes, but plenty of time on the powerplay. When injuries hit he did get more five-on-five time and did well, but with Sudbury going into a rebuilding phase, he will get a lot more minutes this year. Last year Capobianco showed off his strong skating, good vision and passing skills and strong puck-handling ability. Defensively he shows good positioning and strong anticipation, however he could stand to be a bit more physical. With so few minutes last year its hard to give a good assessment of where exactly Capobianco will be drafted in June, but he has the skill to make an impression on scouts this season.
2016 Draft Eligible Player to Watch
Sean Day, Defence, Mississauga Steelheads: In watching Day it is clear what has him as the early favorite for the first overall pick in the 2016 NHL draft. He has excellent size as he is already 6’2″ at just 16-years-old. He also has great skating. His strides both forwards and backwards are long and smooth. His mobility is already top notch. He has great offensive instincts, the ability to rush the puck and to run the power play from the point, a hard shot, and great passing skill and vision. Day has some things to work on in his own end, but the talent and work ethic are there as I saw a lot of Mississauga games last season, and saw Day get better week to week and game by game. He is not intimidated and willing to play a physical game against opponents who are older and who have more muscle on their frame at this point in their development. Quite simply, Day has everything a scout looks for in a defenceman, and has the potential to be elite. We must remember though that he will be just 16 years old this season, so he may not be ready for the role of a #1 defenceman quite yet, though he played top 4 minutes last year and should see more of the same.
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