Once again, I will point out that conferences don’t play football games. As such, phrases like, “The Big Ten had a bad week” are slight misnomers and usually overgeneralizations. Still, they make life easier when attempting to talk about a lot of games at once.
Week 3 CFP Implications
Aside from that, though, the statement is pretty true this week. Last week may have been disappointing for the league’s biggest contenders, but this week was just bad for everyone. Big Ten teams went 3-6 in nonconference games, with the three wins being over Kent State, Miami (Oh), and Fresno State (the only potentially not-awful team of those three). The only awful loss on the list was Iowa’s loss to Iowa State, but add it all together and it does not help the league’s rapidly-dropping national perception.
In addition to that, Virginia Tech–the team that upset Ohio State last week–lost a tight game at home to East Carolina. Now, ECU is far from a bad team and could definitely be the Group of Five’s automatic bid to a major bowl if they win Conference-USA. Still, it does not help the perception of Ohio State when the team that beat the Buckeyes loses at home to a mid-major.
However, I will reiterate what I said last week about the Big Ten contenders, because nothing has really changed. Nebraska is basically a lock for the CFP if they run the table–just like any undefeated power conference champion. Wisconsin and Michigan State aren’t locks if they finish the season with only one loss, but it’s hard to think that high-profile nonconference losses will be held against them. And Ohio State is probably in if they run the table from here, though they may need a bit of help.
The biggest news of the week, though, is that the Pac 12’s chances of getting two teams into the playoff are basically gone. In fact, their only real chance of even being in the discussion is if Oregon ends the season with one loss and does not win the Pac 12. Their nonconference victory over Michigan State should keep them in good stead throughout this season.
The real effects will come from USC’s loss to Boston College, of course. Now, it was USC scheduling a power conference team on the road, but Boston College will most likely not be a good football team this year. They have already lost to Pitt and could struggle just to make a bowl. This was a bad loss for USC and probably means that USC is not getting into the CFP unless they run the table from here.
The other issue with USC’s loss is that they already beat another CFP contender in-conference. Stanford now has to deal with the fact that their loss to USC looks a lot worse. Before it looked like their loss would be to a top 10 team that could only lose tough in-conference games (to Oregon and maybe Arizona State). Now, though, Stanford has a loss to a team with a poor loss of its own. This does not help the Cardinal’s chances of getting in to the CFP with two losses. As things stand now, they probably need to win out to get in.
Speaking of Arizona State, both they and another Pac 12 next-tier contender (UCLA) lost their starting quarterbacks to injury. Brett Hundley looks like he may not be out for too long, but losing Taylor Kelly could be huge for Arizona State. The Sun Devils handled Colorado anyway, but UCLA came very close to losing to Texas without their starting QB. They survived, though, and avoided what could have been a much more awful week for the Pac 12 and college football in Los Angeles.
We just have to keep in mind in these early weeks that there is still a ton of football left to play. Right now it looks like the Pac 12 will have trouble getting a 2-loss champion in and that the Big Ten is lagging behind the other power conferences in terms of leading contenders. But there is still a ton of football left to play and at the end of the day the committee will judge the resumes of teams, not conferences. And just keep in mind, Notre Dame and BYU are both lurking and could throw a huge wrench in everything late in the season.
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