Welcome to this year’s first edition of “Play your Stars Right.” This series is inspired by the British game show ‘Play your cards right’ (also known as card sharks in America), and involves my weekly fantasy football predictions about whether a player’s score will be higher or lower than the week before. If there is any player you would like me to cover in a future edition of this series, be sure to send a tweet to either myself or the LWOS Fantasy Sports account (a must follow for advice before kick-off).
Note: all points totals courtesy of NFL.com standard scoring
Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Last week-8.30 This week- Higher
Nelson owners were disappointed last week after production that ranked him as only the 40th best at his position. But this isn’t too surprising considering the Packers were up against the Seattle Seahawks, who allowed the second-least fantasy points to wide receivers in 2013. In comparison, this week’s opponents, the Jets, ranked in the top six. The fact that Derek Carr completed more than 60 percent of his passes and scored 2 touchdowns with no interceptions in his debut tells you all you need to know.
The other extremely promising factor is how much Aaron Rodgers used Nelson in the first game. He had more targets than the next three players combined (Randall Cobb, Andrew Quarless, and Jarrett Boykin). With Eddie Lacy unlikely to be used extensively against a strong run defense, especially after his concussion, expect to see the Packers pass a lot this week. Against a much weaker secondary, Jordy Nelson will have a far better chance at taking one to the house, and as a result, double digit fantasy points should be the minimum to expect out of the 29-year old this week.
Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Last week- 31.42 This week- Lower
Matt Ryan has a history of starting off well. He averages a quarterback rating of 106 in week one, a 16 percent increase on his career average. But this doesn’t always carry over to Week 2. His average yards per attempt drops from 8.51 in Week 1 to 6.95 in Week 2. I expect this year to continue the trend, which is something I say with deep regret considering that he is my starting quarterback in multiple leagues.
The main reason for this is the matchup. Last week’s shootout with the Saints was a big reason for Ryan’s success. But the Falcons Week two opponents, the Cincinnati Bengals, gave up 16 points despite Joe Flacco passing over 60 times. Add to this Jake Matthews’ absence due to an ankle injury, and it looks highly unlikely Matty Ice breaks 30 fantasy points for the second week in a row.
Terrance West, RB Cleveland Last week- 10.00 This week- Higher
The least surprising yet unexpected moment in week one was Ben Tate getting injured. Everyone knew it would happen at some point, but not even the most pessimistic analysts could have forecasted him not getting through the first game unscathed. As a result, the former FCS stud stepped right in, and made the most of the opportunity with more than 6 yards per carry.
Assuming he gets more touches as a result of starting and not coming off the bench, West could be in for a big day against the Saints, who allowed the sixth-highest yards per rush attempt last year. Start West with confidence this week, as he should put up good numbers, especially if he finds the end zone.
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