While fantasy football season is occupying the minds of most sports fans right now it is important to note that fantasy basketball season isn’t as far away as we might think, I mean were almost halfway done with September and do you even know which draft order you’re selecting? Yeah I thought not. Not to worry though as I’m here to project and break down the top 10 fantasy players for the 2014-15 season. Playing Fantasy Basketball for 5 years and winning the league title in 3 of those 5 years I’d say I’ve mastered the art of at least building a competitive team and after reading this article you might be able to do so as well. Or at least have a good idea who you would want to draft in the first round (barring injury of course).
#10 John Wall
John Wall took a major leap in fantasy value last year having the best year of his career and posting 19.3 ppg, 8.8 assists, 4.1 rebounds, and 1.8 steals. He also shot more three’s than before and as a result made more at 1.3 per game. The only knock on him would be his low FG% at .433 but the reason he’s projected in the top ten this year (and ahead of another young point guard in Kyrie Irving) is that I fully expect him to make another mini leap this year in his game. Last year Wall gained invaluable playoff experience and had a whole injury free season to develop some chemistry with his teammates. He’s still young and there’s no reason not to expect another career year from him. I would say the same for Kyrie Irving but for fantasy purposes it’s harder to be as dominant when you have to share the rock with Kevin Love and Lebron James. John Wall is the undisputed leader and superstar on the Wizards. His a/t ratio is a very healthy 2.44 and as point guards are often the most valuable position in the fantasy world (especially if you have an a/t ratio category in your league) taking Wall at #10 could very well be a steal the only reason he isn’t a few slots higher is his fragile injury history.
#9 Dwight Howard
This will be a surprise for many putting Dwight Howard at #9 above the likes of other stat sheet stuffers such as Demarcus Cousins, Kevin Love, Damian Lilliard, and Lamarcus Aldridge. Let me explain. Last year Howard didn’t have a top ten worthy season by any stretch of the imagination. His line read 18.3 ppg, 12.2 rbg, 1.8 apg, 1.8 bpg, .8 spg, .59 1fg%, .547 ft%]. He can also be turnover prone with 3.2 turnovers per game. So why place him so high at #9? Well for starters it was his first year at Houston learning a new system with new teammates. Second, his numbers were down because he had to share the possession with Chandler Parsons and James Harden. Parsons is in Dallas now and his replacement Trevor Ariza is a defensive minded player first. Dwight Howard should definitely get more opportunities, his teammates know by now where on the court he likes to get the ball passed to him, he should have a better feel for passing out of the double teams, and most important of all, if you watched him last year you could see a fully healthy Dwight Howard having fun and also improving his offensive repertoire. Case in point: the playoffs where he was put on a great series (despite Houston losing). Look for big things from Howard this year. I’m going to go on a limb and say he has the best season of his career in 2014-15.
#8 Carmelo Anthony
Carmelo Anthony had a monster season last season. He averaged 27.4 ppg which is expected from such a talented scorer but he also dedicated himself to getting rebounds (8.1 rbg) and had a respectable assist total (for a scorer like him anyway) at 3.1 apg. The biggest category that jumps at you though is his 1.2 steals per game which was a nice surprise for his owners (me included) and of course the three-pointers are always going to be there for him at 2.2 per game. Say what you want about him being a so called ball stopper and not the greatest defensive player in the world but the fact is for fantasy basketball purposes he’s almost the complete package. His FG% at .452 and stellar FT% at .848 puts him in the elite in terms of stuffing an owners stat sheet. Some uneducated fantasy players have said that if Carmelo Anthony is your best player, you’ll never win the championship and while that may be true in real life it certainly isn’t in fantasy basketball. He’s pretty much going to run the Knicks offense next season (as he has in seasons past) and under the watchful eye of the zen master expect big things again.
#7 Russell Westbrook
Russell Westbrook had a slightly disappointing season last year from a fantasy perspective dues to his mid season injury. He still managed to post a line of [21.8 ppg, 6.9 apg, 5.7 rbg, .7 bpg, 1.2 spg]. His shooting percentage was a mediocre .437 and his a/t ratio a 1.802. By all accounts John Wall had a better season than Westbrook last year BUT keep in mind Westbrook had a major injury mid season and it took him a while to get back into rhythm. He will be back to his dominant self this year. This is a crucial year for the Thunder, the duo of Westbrook and Durant have no excuses as to why they can’t get over the hump. Everyone’s healthy, they know each other, they know their strengths and weaknesses. Russell Westbrook is one of the most competitive guys in the league and as last year was a breakout year for Kevin Durant, this year expect Westbrook to make a little leap and be more responsible with ball. People forget Westbrook is a superstar in his own right and when his game is on he’s almost near unstoppable. Take him in the top 10 and you won’t regret it.
#6 Steph Curry
Steph Curry, [24 ppg, 8.5 apg, 4.3 rbg, 1.6 spg, 3.3 3pts per game] all while shooting .47 from the field and .885 from the free throw line. If you have Steph Curry on your team you’re in good shape. He’s the 2nd best point guard in fantasy basketball (only because Chris Paul has less turnovers and a ridiculous 4.572 a/t ratio) and if you have him on your team you can probably lock down the 3pt made category as a win. Not only that but he’s almost a complete player which is an underrated part about his game. Sure he scores in bunches but he also dishes out 8 or 9 assists a game and can get you some decent rebounding for a point guard not to mention the steals. The only reason he’s not higher on this list is the costly 3.8 turnovers a game and his fragile frame might be at a higher risk for injury than other superstar centerpieces you would want to build your team around. If he can control the turnovers he can take his game in real life and fantasy to a whole another level and reaching his prime years you can’t be faulted for taking a flier on him a little earlier with the third or fourth pick.
#5 Anthony Davis
Anthony Davis was the undisputed Fantasy breakout player of the year last year. Hes good for a 20-10 easy on any given night but his 2.8 bpg, 1.3 spg, low turnover rate of only 1.6, and most important of all .791 FT shooting (A Big Man that can Shoot Free Throws!) put him over the top. Not only that but we fully expect him to take his game to the next level this year and fully establish himself as the best big man in the game. The Brow has almost no chinks in his all around game all he needs to do is mature and improve (which comes naturally over time as his understanding of the NBA games improves with experience) and you can expect him to lead your team to fantasy basketball glory (just make sure to pair him up with a stellar point guard in the next round). In fact after Lebron James and Kevin Durant picking the Brow makes pretty good sense. There’s only one drawback though, he has dealt with nitpicking injuries throughout his NBA career. That’s the only knock on him and its not an unreasonable one. No fantasy player wants the cornerstone of his team to be injured or have to be worried about the constant threat of injury. Its one of the reasons Derrick Rose hasn’t made the this list and it’s the only reason Anthony Davis isn’t rated a couple slots higher.
#4 James Harden
The Beard. Notorious for his great offense and sometimes for his equally bad defense. For fantasy purposes though his weak defense won’t be a detriment to his value (the man still gets 1.6 steals per game) because there is really no statistical measure for taking a couple plays off and letting your man blow right past you (living in Houston I have to come down hard on Harden’s defense but he’s the best shooting guard in the league no doubt about it). Last year Harden put up a line of [25.4 ppg, 6.1 apg, 4.7 rbg, .4 bgp, 1.6 spg, .45 FG, .86 FT] and he also was good for an average of 2.4 3pt made. The only knock on him other than that lackadaisical defense was high turnover rate at 3.6per game. Harden is going to have to carry a larger load for the Rockets with Chandler Parsons leaving and that could very well mean that he will have the ball in his hands more. This might lead to more turnovers yes, but more than likely it will lead to more points, assists, free throws (Harden is one of the best at getting to the free throw line), and three pointers. If he can find a way to improve his FG% just a bit and tone down the turnovers Harden might have a monster year. He could be right up there with Kevin Durant and Lebron James. Harden recently stated that he “was the best player in the game” and now at 25 years old, with the team on his back, he needs to go out and show it.
#3 Chris Paul
Chris Paul is a guy that I almost second guessed myself about putting ahead of Anthony Davis and James Harden. Sure he’s the best fantasy point guard but it’s not like he scores as much as Curry or Harden (19.1 ppg). He’s also getting older and Blake Griffin is coming onto his own, I mean can we really safely say that Chris Paul would be worth a definite #3 pick behind Lebron and KD? The answer is yes and no. If you have a/t ratio in your league then TAKE HIM. He has a stellar 4.572 a/t ratio, he will get you steals (2.5 spg), he won’t turn the ball over a lot (only 2.3 which is low for a point guard), and he’s been very durable from an injury perspective the last few seasons. If you don’t have an a/t ratio field then you could take a gamble and go with some of the high risk high reward guys like Davis and Curry, but if you want a sure thing with your #3 pick then you go with Paul. He won’t carry your team all by himself but he will get 90% of the job done and that’s all you can ask from your #3 pick. He also has a point to prove as his teams always seem to be good but not quite at that elite level. This is a legacy year for Chris Paul and a competitor like him is what you want on your fantasy team.
#2 Lebron James
Lebron James is the best player in the NBA. He’s the best player in the world and the best player we have seen since Michael Jordan. In fantasy Basketball though he’s second best to Kevin Durant (explanation below). Lebron has the best overall game with (unfortunately shutdown defense can’t really be accounted for in Fantasy) and posted a monstrous line of [27.1 ppg, 6.4 apg, 6.9 rbg, .3 bpg, 1.6 spg, .56 FG, .75 FT] and he was also good for 1.5 3pt made as well. However this was the Miami Heat and he’s back in Cleveland now. What does that mean for his fantasy production? Well, he might not score as much with Love and Kyrie there, his assists will probably go up, rebounds down (Love is way better at rebounding than anyone Miami had), but the real question is will he be able to keep up his stellar field goal percentage and cut down on the 3.5 turnovers per game? That is to be decided and with a new team and system the first month or so may not yield consistent results. Don’t get me wrong Lebron James is too great of a player to not get his. He will stuff the stat sheet in some way every night. The only question is, in what way, and how often will he have the ball in his hands, what offensive system is Cleveland going to run? The unknown is too great and the difference between him and Kevin Durant too miniscule for us to take a risk on Lebron with the first pick.
#1 Kevin Durant
The greatest fantasy basketball player of this era. An absolute scoring machine and despite playing with a shoot first all star point guard he still leads the league in scoring. Last year Durant averaged 32 ppg, almost 5 ppg higher than the next man Carmelo Anthony at 27.4. The biggest difference in Durant’s game though was not the scoring but the improvement in his all around game. He became a better passer and rebounder averaging 5.5 apg and 7.4 rpg. His field goal percentage was a ridiculous .503. While Lebron may still boast a better all around game Kevin Durant has closed the gap significantly in the non scoring categories and beats Lebron outright in the scoring category. He’s a better three-point shooter and free throw shooter and he averaged more blocks than Lebron as well. The most important factor though is Lebron’s going to a new team, in a new system, and there is going to be a learning curve like there was when he first joined the Heat. Kevin Durant will have no learning curve. His team will largely stay the same, his critics are growing louder asking why he can’t get over the hump and win a championship, and this might be just me thinking out loud but you get the feeling Kevin Durant just wants it more. He wants be the best. He wants to lead his team to the championship. He wants to be a better player ever game. Most important of all he wants to lead my fantasy team to glory. And he will.
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