At UFC Fight Night 50 Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza scored the biggest win of his mixed martial arts career to date when he submitted former adversary Gegard Mousasi with a guillotine choke four minutes and thirty seconds into the third round. With the stoppage victory Jacare avenged a September 2008 loss to Mousasi, and emphatically staked his claim as the number one contender for the UFC Middleweight Championship. He now has the resume to match his skills, and while he undoubtedly deserves a shot at the belt in his next fight, time may not be on his side.
Chris Weidman, the current UFC Middleweight Champion, puts his title on the line in early December against former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Vitor Belfort. In November former Strikeforce Middleweight Champion, Luke Rockhold, squares off with perennial contender and The Ultimate Fighter Season 3 winner Michael Bisping. The timing and results of these two fights could shape Jacare’s future.
Timing is Everything: Jacare and his Potential Title Shot
Jacare’s first hurdle is the date for Weidman vs Belfort. By the time those two fight for the belt, it will have been three months since Jacare’s conquest of Mousasi. Regardless of who wins, Jacare would most likely be looking at May 2015 for his shot at the belt. Since 2012 Weidman has fought on average only twice a year. If he wins, May makes the most sense for his potential title defense versus Jacare because he can rest over the winter holiday, have a nice long camp through spring, compete in May, and get the summer off for the first time since he began fighting professionally.
If Belfort wins, Jacare would still most likely be looking at May, because Memorial Day weekend falls in May, and the UFC usually loads up that show. Stars such as Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, Cain Velasquez and Junior dos Santos have all recently headlined during the Memorial Day weekend event, and Belfort’s name belongs with them as one of the biggest in the sport. A Belfort vs Jacare title fight would draw masses of Brazilian fans to Las Vegas for that fight, and it would be a huge success.
Another thing you must consider with a potential Belfort win is the possibility of the UFC doing an immediate rematch. If Weidman loses to Belfort, and they run it back right away, they will most likely rematch in, you guessed it, May. Which means, for Jacare, instead of waiting from now until May to fight for the title, his wait could be substantially longer.
Jacare has already stated he has no problem waiting for his title shot. So assuming there’s no immediate rematch between Weidman and Belfort after they throw down in December, what’s the hold up? Well, as I stated above, a month before Weidman vs Belfort goes down, Rockhold and Bisping will have a grudge match in Australia.
The Rockhold vs Bisping feud has been brewing for about two years now, and the highly anticipated fight is finally happening. Two years of intense trash talking has led to a five round main event, and a potential title shot for the winner. What about Jacare though? Why would Rockhold or Bisping leapfrog him?
First, in September of 2011, Jacare lost a unanimous decision to Rockhold, and in the process surrendered his Strikeforce Middleweight Championship to him. Since then Rockhold has been on a tear losing only to Belfort. If Rockhold can stop Bisping, people will want to see the final Strikeforce champ lock horns with Weidman. If Belfort beats Weidman, people will love Belfort vs Rockhold II. In their first fight, Belfort was on TRT, and Rockhold has been clamoring for a rematch with a clean Belfort ever since.
The second reason is Bisping’s popularity. Michael Bisping is, without a doubt, the most popular fighter in the UFC who has never gotten a title shot. Despite failing to win a number one contender’s bout yet, Bisping is always one or two wins away from seeing his dreams of a title shot finally realized. If he can finish Rockhold the stars may finally align for the Brit. With a stoppage win of Cung Le, and a potential win over Rockhold, the UFC may let Bisping hop to the front of the line. Weidman vs Bisping would do much better business than Weidman vs Jacare, as Bisping is a master salesman, and one of the biggest draws in the sport. Supporters and haters alike would buy the pay-per-view, to see him either accomplish his life- long goal, or to see him get shut up on the biggest stage.
If Belfort beats Weidman, Belfort vs Bisping could also be huge. It would be big for all the same reasons as above, plus, Belfort has already beaten Bisping while on TRT, and Bisping has been clamoring for a rematch ever since. Sound familiar?
Jacare could be in trouble. Out of the five men discussed – Weidman, Belfort, Rockhold, Bisping and Jacare – Jacare has the least drawing power. He speaks the least English and has the least amount of UFC fights on American soil. Yet, his resume screams that he is more deserving of a title shot than either Rockhold or Bisping, regardless of the outcome of their fight.
Style wise, I think Jacare presents the most challenges for Weidman, and he has the greatest chance to dethrone Weidman. However, we may never get to see that.
Hopefully Jacare gets what he’s earned, but one Belfort spinning back kick, one Rockhold anaconda choke, or one Bisping overhand right and Jacare’s title shot could go up in smoke.
Timing is everything. Unfortunately for Jacare, the timing sucks.
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