I will be here each week with my Captain’s Picks to cover the info from the last weekend’s action and give you my thoughts on what this means going forward for the players and your teams. I have worked in the fire service for 20 years. In that time I have learned to take a little bit of information and use it to make decisions. These decisions, on limited information, affect the safety of my crew along with the citizens of the community I work in. We use training and experience to make these decisions. I will use my experience and knowledge gained through playing fantasy sports for an even longer time to help you see the way through the fantasy smoke each week. I will pick players each week that good or bad have given me reason to look at them and see if it changes the way they are viewed.
Reading smoke is a very important skill in the fire service. The color, volume, and speed of the smoke is information that can tell us where a fire is in a building. By looking at the smoke coming from a building I can make a decision on how to best deploy my crew. It is not the whole story but it gives us a very good starting point. Each week of football is filled with all kinds of fantasy smoke. I will look at the information form each week, along with my experience, to guide you through the fantasy season. It may get dark and hot at times, stick with me and we will get to our goal of a Fantasy Football Championship.
We do a ton of work in the offseason to prepare you for the fantasy football season. This work may have already paid off, if you listened. Take Darren Sproles for one. Here is a player many of us thought would be a value for where he was taken in drafts. After one week we look smart, right. I also felt good about Cordarrelle Patterson. If you just look at the fantasy numbers, I again was on top of my game. However looking closer at that smoke, I am a little scared. Patterson had just 3 receptions on 5 targets for a measly 26 yards. The points came on 3 carries for 102 yards and a score. This does not make me feel as good about him. The only positive is, they found ways to get him the ball.
Jake Locker looked good going 22 for 33 with 266 yards passing and 2 scores. There was some thought that Locker could be a decent QB2 sleeper this year. As always with Locker health is still a concern. He went undrafted in most leagues. Now is the time to grab him if you have a weak or no QB backup. He is must own in 2 QB leagues.
You can discount the efforts of Chad Henne and Derek Anderson. These players are just keeping the seat warm for now. Chad Henne will be replaced by Bortles and Anderson was a fill in for the injured Cam
Newton. Other performances not to worry about are the single digit outputs of Aaron Rodgers, Romo, and Brady. These players have enough track records to get a pass, for now.
Robert Griffin III had a performance that has me scratching my head. He ran for 2 yards on 3 carries while throwing for 267. No TDs hurt his scoring. So I would not normally be worried however, after last season, the change in coaching, and the fact that Cousins is waiting in the wings has me worried. If you have Griffin III get a good back up now, just in case.
Knowshon Moreno was in fantasy flux as we were not sure who would have the bulk of carries in Miami. Moreno had 24 carries compared to Lamar Miller’s 11. Not only did Moreno get the carries he also was effective going for 134 yards and a score. Moreno is a no doubt starter in week #2. Lamar Miller was also effective and is a quality flex starter.
Mark Ingram was the leader in points from the Saints three headed RB core. The Saints split up the carries; Ingram 13, Thomas 7, and Robinson 6. They targeted Ingram once while giving Thomas seven. This makes decisions on these three going forward tough. I think that Ingram and Thomas are starters on most fantasy teams this week. This situation is one that may frustrate fantasy owners all season. The best you can hope for is that one or even two of these guys step out as the better options for the Saints.
Chris Ivory had ten carries for 102 yards. Although Johnson had the bulk of touches last week, Ivory showed he has the skill to be the man. Chris Johnson has been on the downward slide the last few years and may lose some of those touches he got in week one if Ivory continues to show he can get the job done. I would move to acquire Ivory if you can while his value is low. He will take over the role as the man for the Jets at some point this season.
Ben Tate got hurt. What you don’t look surprised, well neither was I. The question is who the Browns will go to when Tate is hurt. Although Crowell had two scores, the bulk of the carries went to West. If I want to know what to do here,” I say Go West, young man”.
Justin Forsett looked good in week one while Benard Pierce stumbled to 14 yards on 6 carries. Now that TMZ did what the NFL could not do, buy a video. It is Forsett’s job to lose in my opinion. If Justin Forsett is available pick him up at all cost.
Allen Hurns went undrafted in the League. Not yours the NFL. So, do not feel bad that he was a free agent in week one. He caught 4 passes on 9 targets for 110 yards and 2 scores. He should be picked up in all leagues this week. However, he does not need to be the first guy you target. The reason I do not want you to discount his performance in week one was the 9 targets. This was more than a fluke in week one. The other side of the coin is, the NFL does very good drafting their talent and rarely does an undrafted free agent become a fantasy starter as a rookie. If you miss out on other waiver targets, be happy with this lottery ticket.
Kelvin Benjamin is another Rookie that had a good week. He however was drafted in your league. With 6 catches on 8 targets and a score he seems to be an important part of the team. If you took the chance on Benjamin, pat yourself on the back.
Donnie Avery was another undrafted WR that had a big splash in week one. The key here is he got targeted 13 times. That was tied for third most in the league. For that alone he needs to be added in all leagues. The concern is how those targets will be divided up when Bowe returns. After last season, I am not as concerned about how many will go to Bowe. Add Avery and hope that the game manager Smith keeps looking his way.
Markus Wheaton looked elite for the Steelers this week. I would not hesitate to start him going forward. He was targeted 7 times and caught 6 of them for 97 yards. This is more about what I saw than even the numbers, as he looked like a very good wide out.
Dennis Pitta was targeted 14 times in the Ravens loss to the Bangles. He caught 10 of them for 83 yards. After missing 12 games last year Pitta looked like he has not missed a beat. This was a nice first game for those who took the chance on Pitta this year.
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