This week we’ll take a look at three of this year’s breakout outfielders. What chances do I give Michael Brantley, Charlie Blackmon, and Corey Dickerson of repeating this year’s success? Read ahead to find out.
Michael Brantley
Brantley has been a fixture in the Indians outfield since 2010, but never put up the kind of offensive numbers he’s been able to crank out this year. Brantley is on the verge of a 20-20 season with 18 homers and 17 steals which are both already career highs. His power and speed numbers are strong but it’s his .310 batting average that really makes Brantley’s breakout spectacular.
We’ll start by analyzing Brantley’s past performances in the power department. Brantley’s minor league power numbers were actually awful. His isolated power, ISO, which measures how many extra bases a batter earns per at bat never exceeded .106. An average hitter’s ISO is somewhere near .150 while players hitting twenty-plus homeruns will see their ISO approach .200. Brantley was regularly in the starting lineup for the Indians over the past three seasons and his ISO numbers went .118, .114, and .112. Brantley turned the magical age of twenty-seven this season so it’s possible an uptick in the power department is legitimate, but given his consistently bad ISO from 2011 through 2013, I’m saying Brantley’s career high in home runs is unfolding in 2014.
As far as Brantley’s average is concerned, it seems to be legitimate. Brantley is the fourth toughest batter in the majors to strike out among qualified hitters, K’ing in only 8.5% of his plate appearances. Brantley has an elite line drive rate as 26.1% of his batted balls have qualified as line drives; a mark good enough for ninth among qualified hitters. Given his modest BABIP of .312 and his elite line drive rate, I’ll make the argument that Brantley has actually been unlucky this season and has hit more than his fair share of “at-him” balls in 2014. Most of the batters with line drive rates higher than Brantley’s have a BABIP near the .350 mark. Brantley’s hitting success this year mirrors what he was able to do in the minors where his career batting average was .303. With a few less loud outs in the future, Brantley’s name will be in the discussion for the AL batting title for the foreseeable future.
So is Brantley legit? Yes, just expect his homerun totals in the future to top out in the 12-15 range as opposed to pushing into the 20’s.
Charlie Blackmon
Blackmon played well for the Rockies after being called up from AAA last season and rode an amazing first half to an All-Star Game selection this year. Blackmon is currently batting .289 with 17 homeruns and 22 steals. However, is his hitting here to stay?
As with any player who calls Coors Field home, we’ll have to really analyze home-road splits. This season, Blackmon is batting .337 at home and almost .100 points lower on the road with an average of .238. For the sake of comparison, Troy Tulowitzki has a much less drastic split in the average department as he’s a career .323 hitter at Coors Field and a respectable .274 on the road. Of Blackmon’s 17 homeruns this season, 12 have come at home. In his MLB career, Blackmon has hit 65% of his homeruns at home while Tulowitzki has only relied on the altitude to hit 56% of his career homeruns. Tulowitzki benefits from playing his home games at Coors Field but still hits fairly well on the road. Blackmon, on the other hand, seems to rely on Coors for a little too much of his overall production. As long as Blackmon calls Coors Field home, seasons like this one could be in his future. However, without improved numbers on the road, Blackmon doesn’t seem like a candidate to improve on his breakout season. He could totally fall off the table if he’s ever calling somewhere other than Colorado home.
Corey Dickerson
Dickerson is another Rockies outfielder who’s put up way better numbers than anyone expected him to this season. After batting .267 with 5 homeruns in just over 200 at bats at the Major League level last season, Dickerson has bested those numbers and currently has a .311 batting average with 22 homers. Is Dickerson just another product of Coors Field like Blackmon?
Dickerson has shown impressive numbers in the power department throughout his minor league career. His ISO never fell below the .200 mark during any of his stops in the minors, where he registered over 100 at bats. His ISO so far in 2014 is .267 which is outstanding. If he had enough plate appearances to qualify among the league leaders, he’d sit at fifth in the majors behind only Edwin Encarnacion, Chris Carter, Jose Abreu, and Giancarlo Stanton. Given his ability to consistently maintain an ISO above .200 in the minors, the power Dickerson is currently showing should be surprising.
Dickerson has always maintained excellent raw power, but he played in many hitter-friendly parks throughout his minor league career and now plays in the best hitters’ park in the majors. If you look at Dickerson’s home-road splits, they show he does rely on Coors considerably. Currently, 13 of his 22 (59%) homers have come in Denver and his batting average at Coors is .361 while it sits at .254 on the road. These splits are between what Tulowitzki and Blackmon have shown. It is likely that Dickerson is more likely to be this productive in the future than Blackmon
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