Welcome to Puck Drop Preview 2014-15, where our hockey department gives you a detailed look at each team from around the NHL leading to the start of this hockey season and
offers our insight and analysis. Makes sure to stick around until the end of the series, where we’ll offer our full predictions for the standings in each division, and eventually our collective LWOS 2014-15 Stanley Cup pick. You can check out all our articles on our Puck Drop Page. Today is the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Last Season:
Just like every season, the Toronto Maple Leafs went into last season with a dangerous amount of hope. They were coming off their first playoff appearance in nine years (everyone remembers the end of that series with Boston). And, they’d just added some “much-needed” grit to the lineup, by trading for Dave Bolland and signing David Clarkson to the league’s worst contract. The Leafs also addressed another lesser issue, by trading for goaltender Jonathan Bernier.
In true Maple Leafs fashion, the Buds came out of the gate hot. They went 10-4 in October, despite Clarkson’s 10-game suspension right off the bat, as punishment for his role in this episode. Fans were expecting Leafs hockey in May, and (obviously) a parade was being planned.
Then, disaster struck. In November, Bolland sliced his Achilles tendon, knocking him out for the majority of the season. Until then, he’d quickly become a fan favourite in Toronto, bringing some much-needed Mimico heart and leadership to the club. The Leafs were then blown out of the water, going 4-9 in November. There was talk everywhere about how sorely Bolland was missed, and how the team would be great again upon his return. Because, obviously, it’s acceptable for a team to rely on a third-line centre.
They continued to be ridiculously streaky the whole season. There were highs like their 7-3 drubbing of the Chicago Blackhawks, and the shootout win over Detroit at the Winter Classic, as well as lows, like a 6-0 defeat at the hands of the Columbus Blue Jackets.
In mid-March, with just 14 games left to play, the Leafs were already pencilled in for an Eastern Conference playoff spot. At that point, fans were thinking less about whether they’d make the postseason, and more about who they’d meet there. Hockey fans everywhere were drooling at the prospect of a potential Leafs-Canadiens first round matchup, which was looking more and more likely by the day. The Leafs had just finished their dreaded “Death Valley” road trip to California, where they’d won two of three games against Anaheim and Los Angeles.
The California trip ultimately was a turning point in the Leafs season (although not for the reason many expected it would be). In the last game against the Kings, starter Bernier was forced out with an injury. When James Reimer came in to replace him, he subsequently received a blow to the head. He stayed in the game, despite his play indicating he was quite obviously hurt. For the rest of the season, he never regained his form, causing many Leafs fans to blame him for what happened in the last 14 games.
Reimer did finish the season poorly, but then again, so did the rest of the Leafs. Bolland’s return didn’t help much, especially considering he still couldn’t skate well due to his injury. In a way Leafs fans are all too familiar with, the proverbial eighteen-wheeler fell off the cliff immediately after the game in LA. Toronto lost eight straight games, many of them against divisional rivals like Montreal, Detroit and Tampa Bay.
Just like that, the Toronto Maple Leafs fell wildly out of a playoff spot in just a few weeks, ending up with the eighth overall draft pick. Reimer had gone from hero to devil in the eyes of many Torontonians, being made a scapegoat for the team’s collapse. That, of course, was despite the fact that the Leafs had one of the worst defensive seasons in NHL history, surrendering the most shots against ever in an 82-game season. They were outshot and out-possessed almost every night. In fact, goaltending was what kept them afloat all year. Facing in the neighbourhood of 40 shots every game, Bernier kept a save percentage 0f .923. Until the infamous game with the Kings, Reimer’s was .914 – also nothing to sniff at.
Goaltending was certainly a bright spot in what turned out to be another dark season for the Leafs. So too was the team’s offensive production. Phil Kessel had another great year, finishing 5th in the NHL with 37 goals, and 6th in points with 80. His linemate, James van Riemsdyk, posted a career-high 30 goals, and 61 points. Additionally, the Leafs lucked out by signing Mason Raymond to a low-risk 1-year contract, as he turned out to be another deadly weapon (finishing with 45 points).
So, it was not all doom and gloom for the Leafs in 2013-14. However, fans became increasingly frustrated with coach Randy Carlyle‘s lack of a defensive system. At the end of the season, with a new team president coming aboard in Brendan Shanahan, it was almost a certainty that Carlyle would be fired. Surely the man behind the bench for that tremendous collapse couldn’t stay, right?
Puck Drop Preview: 2014-15 Toronto Maple Leafs
Offseason Changes:
Well, one of the first things the Leafs did this offseason was give Carlyle a contract extension. This left Leafs fans and pundits alike gaping. Instead, his assistant coaches were fired. Steve Spott, last season’s head coach of the Toronto Marlies (Toronto’s AHL affiliate), and Peter Horachek, who was once interim coach in Florida, were given the vacant jobs beside Carlyle.
The conclusions most people have come to about the odd Carlyle extension is accountability. It’s possible that Leafs management wants to make sure the players feel responsible for what happened last season. Additionally, Carlyle will likely be expected to change his old-school system, to align with the new philosophy in Toronto. If he’s unable to adapt, it would shock no one to see him gone midseason.
This offseason, the Leafs ultimately made the headlines more for changes to their front office than to their on-ice personnel. The trend of retaining the chief but purging his deputies continued, as GM Dave Nonis kept his job, unlike his assistants Claude Loiselle and Dave Poulin. 28-year-old Kyle Dubas was brought on as a new assistant GM, leaving his post at the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds.
Dubas’s specialty is, apparently, advanced stats and analytics. This hiring surprised many people, considering the attitude the Leafs had previously taken about analytics. The team was consistently one of the worst in the NHL in Corsi and Fenwick, and management indicated that they didn’t think it was a problem. In fact, many fans were infuriated by the fact that the Leafs brass seemed to be deliberately ignoring advanced stats altogether.
However, it appears that Shanahan has a completely different attitude. He is attempting to bring change to the culture in Toronto, modernizing the way things are done. Dubas was certainly not the end of Shanahan’s hirings. He proceeded to create an entire analytics department, comprised of renowned hockey bloggers Cam Charron and Rob Pettapiece, as well as creator of ExtraSkater.com Darryl Metcalf.
Of course, there were on-ice changes as well, to complement the new-look management. The Leafs traded defenceman Carl Gunnarsson to St. Louis for Roman Polak – also a defenceman. They also made a deal to bring depth winger Matt Frattin back to Toronto in exchange for Jerry D’Amigo.
During free agency, the Buds inked veteran blueliner Stephane Robidas, and brought back fan-favourite pest Leo Komarov from the KHL. In the days after July 1st, Petri Kontiola, Komarov’s Finland linemate and renowned orator, also made the jump to the NHL from Russia.
Since Raymond’s low-risk, high-reward signing worked out so well last season, the Leafs took a flyer on Mike Santorelli, David Booth and Daniel Winnik. Booth and Winnik were likely both signed under the advisement of Dubas, considering their strong possession numbers.
With these offseason signings, the Leafs now have arguably the deepest group of bottom six forwards in the entire league. There will be a lot of healthy competition at training camp for the few spots available.
The Leafs did also lose some key players this summer, most notably Gunnarsson and Nikolai Kulemin. They may have dodged a bullet by letting Bolland walk, as he signed an outrageous 5-contract with the Florida Panthers, with a yearly cap hit of $5.5 million. They also lost penalty-killing centre Jay McClement, defencemen Paul Ranger and Tim Gleason, as well as Raymond (who cashed in on his comeback year in 2013-14, signing a 3-year, $9.45 million deal with Calgary).
All in all, the Leafs added more than they lost this offseason. One would have to say that, on paper, they look like a better team than they did in September 2013.
2014-15 Lineup Projection:
It’s almost a certainty that the first line of Van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak and Kessel will be kept together, at least to start the season, considering how well they worked together last year. It’s possible that Nazem Kadri could jump up to become the first-line centre later in the season, however.
As for the second line, Kadri and Joffrey Lupul will likely stay together, to continue their strong chemistry. The right wing spot on that line, however, is up for grabs. Clarkson will probably be given the position to start, despite his abysmal season last year, as he’s bound to bounce back. Booth and Frattin could also be looked at to fill the role.
The bottom two lines are really a crapshoot. Komarov, Kontiola, Winnik, Santorelli, Troy Bodie, Booth, Frattin, Peter Holland, Carter Ashton and Spencer Abbott will all be competing for a regular spot. The days of the Leafs employing goons like Colton Orr and Frazer McLaren are gone, as it seems there will be no spots for them. Instead there will be actual hockey players on the fourth line. With that said, the lack of Orr and McLaren may play to Bodie’s favour, as he’s capable of dropping the gloves when needed.
As for the back end, the Leafs finally look like they have some options. Dion Phaneuf will, obviously, lead the first pairing. It would be interesting to see him with Jake Gardiner, as that will allow the captain to assume more of a defensive role. He struggled last year when expected to help at both ends of the ice, playing far too many minutes.
Morgan Rielly, another young puck-moving starlet, could be paired with Robidas, who will have a similar effect as Phaneuf will have on Gardiner – allowing the younger guy to play an offensive role. Of course, the same goes for the third pairing, which will probably be Polak and Cody Franson.
Jonathan Bernier will likely be the opening-night starter in net, considering his great season in 2013-14.
James van Riemsdyk – Tyler Bozak – Phil Kessel
Joffrey Lupul – Nazem Kadri – David Clarkson
Leo Komarov – Petri Kontiola – David Booth
Daniel Winnik – Peter Holland – Troy Bodie
Dion Phaneuf – Jake Gardiner
Stephane Robidas – Morgan Rielly
Roman Polak – Cody Franson
Jonathan Bernier
James Reimer
Players to Watch:
- David Clarkson: The man who was heralded last summer as the next Wendel Clark didn’t quite live up to expectations in Toronto. He became a source of ridicule around the league, managing just 11 points in 6o games played. However, he’s certainly due for a bounce-back year. Clarkson had a bad start last season, missing the first ten games due to suspension. He then battled an elbow injury the whole year, which had a visible effect on his level of play. If he is on a line with Lupul and Kadri, he could find himself in a much better situation. In New Jersey, he scored dirty goals, from rebounds after shots by Ilya Kovalchuk and Patrik Elias. This would be a similar deal. It’s unlikely that Clarkson will ever be worth his $5.25 million cap hit, but after last season, there’s nowhere to go but up.
- Leo Komarov: When Komarov departed to Dynamo Moscow after the 2012-13 season, many Leafs fans despaired. In just one season with the club, he’d had a huge impact. Komarov gave the team a spark, as one of the NHL’s best agitators. He can chirp in pretty much any language, and is the king of refusing to respond to his opponents (which infuriates them). Last season, one could see how much the Leafs missed Komarov, as they clearly lacked identity. Returning this year, Komarov was given a substantially more expensive contract, however he could well be worth it.
- James Reimer: At the end of last season, Reimer was as good as gone. He’d fallen out of favour with many fans, and he very obviously didn’t get along well with Carlyle. In June, Reimer officially requested a trade away from Toronto. However, he became a restricted free agent on July 1st, which really put the ball in the Leafs’ court. Ultimately, Reimer signed a new 2-year contract to avoid salary arbitration, and it appears that he will indeed be a Leaf come October. Like Clarkson, Reimer is due for a bounce-back year. Last March was poor, but it’s very likely that he was playing with a head injury. He won’t likely settle for a backup role, and will probably continue to try and win back his starting job. At the least, the Leafs now have one of the most desirable goaltending tandems in the NHL, with both Reimer and Bernier under contract for just over 5 million dollars.
On the Rise:
- Morgan Rielly
- Jake Gardiner
- Nazem Kadri
All three of these young players are budding stars in Toronto. Both Rielly and Gardiner are exceptional puck-moving defencemen, which is becoming a rare commodity in today’s NHL. Gardiner had his breakout last year, when he was at times the team’s best blueliner. Rielly had a great rookie campaign too, and has likely earned himself a permanent job at the age of 20. They are both expected to command the Leafs’ defensive corps for years to come. This summer, Gardiner was signed to a new 5-year contract, in a move which delighted fans, and now he’ll be looking to prove that he’s worth it.
Kadri is also looking to be a future star at centre. He’s in a contract year, so expect him to really turn up the offensive production this season. He’ll be trying to earn himself a spot on the first line, winning Bozak’s place. Kadri will be an exciting player to watch in 2014-15, as he tries to cement himself as Toronto’s first-line centre of the future.
On the Decline:
- Stephane Robidas
- Joffrey Lupul
- Jonathan Bernier
Robidas is probably the most obvious member of this list. He’s 37, and is coming off a season in which he broke his leg twice. The Leafs probably don’t expect him to be like he used to be. His role with the team is more as a veteran mentor, for young players like Gardiner and Rielly. He will do well in that job, but don’t expect him to be a brick wall in defence.
Lupul is also likely beyond his best years, although less obviously so. Another fan favourite, he’s been an offensive assassin when healthy. However, he is 30, and is very injury prone. Lupul will almost certainly not be anywhere near the point-per-game pace he had a couple years ago. He will probably still have at least one or two more seasons of good point production, but he’s certainly not likely to improve.
Now, the most surprising name on this list is Bernier. However, some clarification is needed here. Bernier is not getting old (he’s only 26) or battling injuries. He’s certainly not on the tail end of his career. Here, he could be said to be “on the decline”, simply because of the great season he had last year. It’s extremely unlikely that Bernier will repeat his .923 save percentage. He’s certainly due for at least some regression, especially if the Leafs continue their unsustainable habit of allowing 40 shots a night (which is effectively what Dubas was brought in to fix).
2014-15 Season Expectations:
As always in Leafland, expectations are high going into a new season. The team is definitely better than they were this time last year, on paper. With the projected weakness of the Eastern Conference, the Leafs could well find themselves in the thick of the playoff race.
It’s unlikely that the new front office hires will have an immediate impact. If the Leafs stink this year, expect the anti-analytics crowd to be out in full force, claiming that advanced stats are useless, as are the suits who propagate them. However, they must be given time to influence the team.
What could have an immediately visible impact, however, is the coaching staff. The new assistants, Spott and Horachek, might be able to help Carlyle adapt his system, and help the Leafs’ defence. And, if Carlyle is unable to adapt, and the team isn’t doing well, expect him to be out the door by Christmas.
The Atlantic Division will be wild this year, and with the parity in it, the Leafs could reasonably finish anywhere from the third playoff spot to a lottery position. If things go well for them, and Bernier and Reimer provide above-average goaltending, the Leafs could definitely take one of the East’s wildcard spots.
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