With Week 1 of SEC action complete, let’s examine how much of the reaction is real and how much is hype. People are quick to read into games, especially early season matchups. How many of the conventional storylines are over-reactions and how much are legitimate concerns and conclusions? Let’s take a look. (Note: Thursday games analyzed here)
SEC Week 1 Analysis
Georgia 45, Clemson 21
Conventional Storyline: Georgia’s dismantling of Clemson makes them one of the nation’s four best teams.
Verdict: Over-Reaction
Georgia certainly established itself as the SEC East favorite after winning their opener against a tough Clemson team. Todd Gurley had a tremendous game. Georgia – like all of the big SEC non-conference games this week – simply wore down Clemson. This was a close game until mid-way through the fourth quarter. Additionally, Clemson lost a tremendous amount of talent from last year. Georgia relied on its running game, and Hutson Mason effectively managed the game but did not have a star turn (18-26-131-0-0). With South Carolina’s loss to Texas A & M, Georgia is now the clear favorite in the SEC East, but it’s too much of a stretch to have Georgia as the #4 team after one week.
Alabama 33, West Virginia 23
Conventional Storyline: Alabama has slow start, but easily handles West Virginia.
Verdict: Under-Reaction
Did I miss something? Did the Alabama defense really just give up 365 passing yards to Clint Trickett? Alabama’s run defense was strong, and the Tide did have two 100-yard rushing efforts, but the passing defense and Blake Sims’ pedestrian effort are reasons to think that Alabama might be vulnerable this season, particularly with the emergence of Kenny Hill and the known abilities of Nick Marshall and Bo Wallace on the schedule. West Virginia is a quality team with an offensive identity, but a top-four Alabama squad should have performed better in this game.
Auburn 45, Arkansas 21
Conventional Storyline: Auburn wears down rebuilding Arkansas team.
Verdict: Spot On
Bret Bielema is a good coach and Arkansas is getting better, but playing in the nation’s toughest division isn’t easy. Auburn controlled the line of scrimmage and put up 595 yards of total offense. Their defense adjusted at the half and kept Arkansas scoreless after the break. If Auburn can take care of business and not look ahead to the Texas A&M and Georgia games, they will quickly build momentum and have another chance at playing in the playoffs.
Kentucky 59, Tennessee-Martin 14
Conventional Storyline: Stoops has Kentucky ready to compete in SEC.
Verdict: Over-Reaction
Nice stats, yes. Big plays, sure. Big name coach’s first game, got it. But let’s not forget Kentucky was playing Tennessee … Martin. If you can show me where Martin, Tennessee is on a map, then you need to be in a geography bee. And while Kentucky’s offense shined, their defense allowed 398 total yards to the SkyHawks. If UT-M can put up 400 and 14 on Kentucky, what are Georgia, Missouri and the rest of the SEC going to do to that defense? Kentucky did what they should have done, nothing more and nothing less.
Missouri 38, South Dakota State 18
Conventional Storyline: Missouri off to solid start.
Verdict: Under-Reaction
This one is tough to judge, just like the Tigers. On one hand, Missouri looked good early and coasted for much of the game. On the other hand, SDSU is an FCS school, and with SEC so wide open, the returning champs should have made more of a statement in their opener against this type of opponent. This game was a 3-point game in the third quarter. If Mizzou wants to repeat as SEC East Champs, they need find their focus and take care of business against their non-conference schedule. In the new play-off era, teams looking for the third and fourth spots need to impress “The Committee” week-in and week-out.
LSU 28, Wisconsin 24
Conventional Storyline: LSU wears down Wisconsin, escapes with big win.
Verdict: Spot On.
Les Miles is amazing. LSU comes into this game with multiple suspended players, one key injury, and a new quarterback. And, on top of everything, the turf in the Houston stadium wasn’t real grass. LSU looked sluggish and lost all night until midway through the fourth quarter when they decided they might like to win this game. LSU is the great unknown in the SEC West. We’ll see how far Miles’ magic goes in 2014.
Mississippi State 49, Southern Miss 0
Conventional Storyline: Mississippi State builds on strong 2013 with good start to 2014.
Verdict: Spot on.
As opposed to the Ole Miss, Missouri and Kentucky games, Mississippi State actually made a statement in their opening game. Dan Mullen’s team looked sharp, got great play from its dynamic quarterback, and the defense held Southern Miss to under 300 yards. Again, they play in the nation’s toughest division, but Bulldog fans have reason to be excited about the possibility of building on a solid, Liberty-Bowl winning 2013 season.
Tennessee 38, Utah State 7
Conventional Storyline: Tennessee gets big opening win against upset-minded Utah State.
Verdict: Spot On.
Similar to Mississippi State’s win, Tennessee had a quality win against a solid non-Big Five school. Utah State has taken USC, Auburn and Boise State down to the wire the last three years and has a Heisman watch-list quarterback in Chuckie Keeton. Tennessee showed promising signs on defense and in the offensive skill positions. An inability to establish a run game against a suspect defensive line and depth on the defensive front are still areas for concern once Tennessee starts the grueling SEC schedule.
Analysis: SEC Week 1 Reaction
Overall, in the inter-conference match-ups, the SEC displayed its depth. Ole Miss, Alabama, Georgia, and especially LSU simply wore down teams that didn’t have the same level of depth. Increasingly, what separates the SEC from other conferences is not necessarily the talent levels, but the depth of talent. Alabama and Georgia’s stables of strong and fast running backs are prime examples. Watch SEC defenses rotate in two and three defensive linemen during series. That’s what makes the SEC so strong against other top teams from other conferences.
In the two intra-conference games, we see the strength of the SEC West. Arkansas is clearly better and Texas A&M is really, really good. With Auburn looking similar to 2013 form and even with Alabama not impressing against West Virginia, there are three teams (Alabama, Texas A&M, and Auburn) with a legitimate shot at the title and three more schools- LSU, Ole Miss and Mississippi State- with an outside shot. Whoever wins the West will be the most prepared and battle tested team entering the postseason. A West division winner that wins the championship in Atlanta ought to be a lock for the playoff, even if they have one loss.
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