The odds of each driver left standing for the IndyCar championship vary based on how many points are up for grabs and the past accolades of each competitor, but there is one thing that is a near-certainty; fans will get to watch one of the world’s greatest natural dramas.
If the race itself plays out like the past two season finales have, fans can be assured of seeing a true champion being crowned Saturday night.
IndyCar Finale Set to Test the Best
A 500-mile race has stood over the years as a true test of a racing team’s determination, speed, resiliency and teamwork. The 2-mile mammoth Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, California — with its aging asphalt and long straightaways — weeds out the weak and rewards the strong.
In last year’s season finale, only five cars finished on the lead lap at the end of the night, and eighth-place finisher Ryan Hunter-Reay finished eight laps behind. Even better, Charlie Kimball dropped out with 12 laps to go due to an engine failure, and still finished 10th!
The high speeds that are sure to be seen only push the drivers and teams further to their limits. It’s expected that average lap speeds will exceed 220 mph. Last year’s pole-winning effort by Will Power was recorded at 220.775 mph, and the all-time open-wheel qualifying record at the track stands at 241.428 mph by Gil de Ferran in the 2000 event (sanctioned by CART).
No mistakes at those speeds will be tolerated by the cars, so drivers need to buckle down and race intelligently, and 500 miles is a lot of time for drivers and teams to make mistakes. It’s a true test of champions.
This Saturday, the maximum number of points a driver will be able to score is 104, which is equal to leading the most laps from pole position en route to winning. If 22 cars are indeed entered as it stands now, that means a last-place finish would be worth 16 points, so any driver within 88 markers of the leader is mathematically eligible.
Ryan Hunter-Reay just missed the cut of title contender by leaving Sonoma 92 points behind, even after scoring a second-place finish.
Will Power, leader — 626 points
Power clinches with a sixth place or better finish.
As the defending winner of this race, Power could be the favorite to win not just the championship but the race as well. Although it came one year late, Power’s 2013 triumph stamped his name as one of the favorites in 2014.
A career roadie (being proficient at road courses), Power has slowly and begrudgingly improved his craft at ovals. 19 of his 22 career IndyCar wins have come on left and right-handed courses, but Power has added wins at Texas Motor Speedway, Auto Club Speedway and the Milwaukee Mile, the latter two coming in the past 12 months.
Power just needs to prove one more time that he is competent enough on ovals to clinch his first title, one that is long overdue. Three times, the Penske driver has come up short in the season finale with a championship on the line.
In 2010, Power entered the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway holding a slim 12-point lead over Ganassi rival Dario Franchitti. In the second half of the race, Power ran wide and brushed the wall, damaging his suspension and giving Franchitti the championship by five points.
One year later, Power took an 11-point lead into the penultimate race at Kentucky Speedway, only to give it up to Franchitti (again) after an issue with another driver on pit road left him deep in the pack. Power never got a chance to make up the 18 points that he trailed Franchitti by going into the season finale at Las Vegas after Dan Wheldon was tragically killed in an early crash in the event.
Power lost the championship lead in the season finale for a third year in a row in 2012, this time at Fontana when he lost control and crashed hard early in the race to lose by three points to Ryan-Hunter Reay.
Saturday could be the day that Power finally earns his first major driving championship. It will take one more solid effort and a clearing of his past demons and it’s officially in the books.
Helio Castroneves, -51 points
Castroneves isn’t so far behind to be considered a long shot, but he’s going to need some help to win the 2014 IndyCar crown. If Power finishes 22nd — a last-place finish with the current entry list — Castroneves can claim the championship with a podium result.
Castroneves has led 217 career laps at Fontana, more than twice as many as any other active driver, and was one of the fastest drivers in the Indianapolis 500 back in May, finishing second in a late duel to Ryan Hunter-Reay.
Castroneves’ experience in IndyCar dates back to 2001, when the series was predominantly an oval track series. 16 of his 23 career IndyCar wins came on an oval. It’s clear Castroneves has the moxie at high speeds, so it will be very interesting just how close the Penkse driver can come to winning his first title.
Simon Pagenaud, -81 points
The lurking Frenchman has one option: Win.
If Pagenaud wins the race, he needs Power to finish outside the top 20 to have a shot at the title. If Power can finish 20th, the duo will at the very least end in a draw, with the tiebreaker going to Power with more second-place finishes.
The Schmidt-Peterson-Hamilton Racing driver should count himself lucky to even be in the title picture. Pagenaud finished third last week at Sonoma Raceway, but his average running position was at 11.27.
Pagenaud started 13th and finished there last year in California, suffering an engine failure in the final 40 laps. All four of his career IndyCar wins have come on road courses, with his best oval finish a fourth place at Texas this year.
Basically, Power just needs to stay out of trouble. Pagenaud needs to win and lock Power in the trackside toilet.
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