Sports. Honestly. Since 2011

Don't Be Shocked if Grigor Dimitrov is Your US Open Champion

Most of the attention heading into the US Open has been on Rafael Nadal’s withdrawal, Novak Djokovic’s recent struggles, and Roger Federer’s resurgence.  While Grigor Dimitrov usually garners more than his fair share of attention, he seems to be flying a little under the radar heading into the Open.  After making the semifinals of Wimbledon and the Toronto Masters, he suffered an early loss in Cincinnati which seems to have taken the focus away from him.

Many are including him on their list of players to keep an eye on, but the consensus seems to be he is not quite ready to challenge for the title (a position I have recently held as well).  However, with a reasonable draw and no Nadal in the field, Dimitrov may have a better chance to win the title than many people think.

The biggest factors holding Dimitrov back in the past have been his fitness, nerves, and to some degree his consistency.  In the past year Dimitrov appears to have raised his fitness to an elite level, thanks largely to his new coach Roger Rasheed.  There’s no reason to believe Dimitrov will have any problems holding up physically in New York, even if he has to survive one or two grueling five setters.  The days of Dimitrov giving away matches he should have won because of his fitness appear to be over.

Dimitrov’s nerves have also cost him several winnable matches over the past few years, particularly against top players.  In the Australian Open quarters, he missed an easy forehand on set point against Nadal that would have given him a 2 set to 1 lead.  He also tightened up in the Wimbledon semis against Djokovic, when he had several chances to send the match to a 5th set.  In previous years he struggled to close out sets against the top guys in Masters tournaments, despite building early leads.

However, Dimitrov has a history of needing to experience a situation a few times before he is ready to reach the next step.  Now that he has faced pressure in majors at the later rounds on a couple of occasions, he should be better prepared to handle such situations at the Open.  It’s certainly possible his nerves get the better of him one more time, but now he has more experiences to rely on.

Since he shouldn’t have to worry about his fitness, and likely will have a better handle on his nerves, Dimitrov should be able to focus on what he does best-outclassing opponents with a mix of power, finesse, speed and variety of shot making.  Dimitrov’s best is just about as good as anyone’s in the field, and he should be ready to announce himself as a contender in front of the New York crowd.  Many people expect him to fall to his idol Federer in the quarters, but Federer’s strong run of late means Dimitrov can embrace the underdog role and the reduced pressure that comes with it.  If Federer has a slightly off day (which become more frequent after you turn 33), Dimitrov should be ready to take advantage.

Dimitrov does have a lot riding on this tournament, as he needs a deep run to raise his profile in America.  He may have all the characteristics of a budding superstar, but without a signature result the top level endorsement deals won’t start flooding in.

Dimitrov now knows he belongs at the top of the game, and should be as hungry for the title as anyone.  With his better fitness, more experiences to draw from and loads of talent, don’t be surprised if this is the tournament Dimitrov puts it all together.

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Main Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

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