It was a wild ride, but the Nationals’ winning streak is finally over. It took an implosion of Doug Fister and a ten run outburst from the Giants to curb what has been a robust Washington squad. Since 2012, the Nats have long been pegged as one of the best teams on paper. After some inconsistency and injuries earlier in the season, the Nationals have rocketed to a six game lead over the sputtering Braves and the best record in the National League at 73-54. Though it’s over, a ten game winning streak is nothing to sneeze at, and it’s very possible that we’re looking at the NL pennant winners.
It’s a bit presumptive to make that call, yet it’s one that makes too much sense to not consider. The other division leaders have all taken major hits, while the Nationals have only grown stronger. The Dodgers are currently employing Roberto Hernandez and Kevin Correia in their rotation, along with Dan Haren (who has been worth a whopping 0.1 fWAR this year). Hanley Ramirez can’t seem to stay healthy, and the bullpen has been a mess all year. The Brewers, while impressive, don’t figure to have the pitching staff to shut down lineups in the postseason. And the Giants, Pirates and Cardinals all have their own glaring issues (offense, pitching, and offense, respectively).
Washington is the team to beat in the senior circuit, and it isn’t close. There isn’t a single weak spot on the team. You can slice it a number of ways, but here are some quick facts and figures.
- WSH Offense: 18.0 fWAR (4th in NL), .312 wOBA (5th in NL), .319 OBP (6th)
- WSH Starters: 13.3 fWAR (1st), 2.08 BB/9 (1st), 0.75 HR/9 (2nd) 3.25 FIP (1st)
- WSH Relievers: 4.2 fWAR (1st), 2.83 BB/9 (2nd), 0.46 HR/9 (1st), 3.02 FIP (1st)
Simply put, Washington has had the most dominant pitching staff in the NL this year. They don’t give up freebies (walks and homers), and their starters go deep into games. The core of Strasburg, Zimmermann, Fister, and Gonzalez has lived up to their billing as the best first four in baseball, and Tanner Roark has quietly been the second best pitcher on the team. The relief core has also been lockdown. Rafael Soriano, Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard, and Craig Stammen have all been ruthlessly efficient.
The only sore spot, if you can call it that, has been the run production. The Nats lack a true superstar hitter (if you don’t count Bryce Harper, whose injuries have hampered him), yet their lineup manages to be exceptionally deep. The one real super-producer is the unflappable Jayson Werth. Werth is having a typical Werth year at .285/.376/.441, good for a 132 wRC+. The home runs are down (18% HR/FB last year compared to 9.2% in 2014, and he’s actually hit a higher rate of fly balls this year) but Werth is still a rock-steady presence that makes the Washington lineup tick.
And don’t look now, but Harper himself is starting to get hot. Or just lucky, at least. In the month of August, Harper is hitting .283/.353/.400 with three homers. However, that’s been driven by a massive .400 batting average on balls in play. That’s going to have to regress in an ugly way at some point, but the Nationals will take what they can get from the young man once hailed as the “Chosen One.” It’s unfair to assume that Harper, owner of two 20-homer seasons prior to turning 21, will automatically turn into the baseball version of God. Injuries happen, and Harper seems to be working himself back well. If he can get back to form for September, it will be just another bullet in the Washington arsenal.
However, the Nats have been getting along just fine without a Jose Abreu-type anchor in their lineup. They lead the NL in runs scored for August, and are third in home runs. That’s all without Ryan Zimmerman, too. That’s because since the addition of Asdrubal Cabrera, there isn’t a true easy out besides the pitcher spot. Almost every batter in the order has some pop in his bat, as well. The only one that really doesn’t, Denard Span, hits leadoff and has a true knack for getting on base and swiping bags. It’s not a lineup that you want to pitch to, plain and simple.
It remains to be seen whether or not the Dodgers can quickly get Hyun-Jin Ryu back into the rotation, and see what they can get out of Hanley down the stretch. Maybe the Brewers can have their pixie dust pitching continue. Yet at this moment, the National League is the Nationals’ to lose. They are the most productive, most balanced team in the game, and it may just be time for that World Series title that we’ve been talking about for three years now.
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