I’m writing this three and a half days before the second Bledisloe Cup game at Eden Park on Saturday. It’s not that I have nothing better to do (although that is true, to be honest) but I wanted to get down in black (sic) and white my view, before the actual match kicks off.
You may have noticed how a lot of the rugby media have a tendency to be very wise after the event and stuff like “I could have told you” and “the final score did not surprise me” often litters column inches and social media. Well I plan to put my best mate on the block by telling you what I think ahead of the game! The Australian media, former (and indeed current) Wallabies are suggesting that, not only has the All Black aura gone, but that they are now ripe for the taking and the Eden Park fortress (20 years since New Zealand lost and 28 years since the Wallabies won there) is about to be demolished.
Reports of the All Blacks Demise have been Greatly Exaggerated
I recognize that Australian rugby is currently riding high – the Tahs Super 15 win and the Sydney Test are ample evidence that Michael Cheika and Ewan McKenzie have restored confidence as well as skill and physicality – but one swallow and all that (as a non- rugby hooker would say).
Certainly, as an England supporter, it worries me that Australia are starting to peak just over a year out from the 2015 ‘Group of Death’. Having said that, I find it a bit of a jump to write off the All Blacks and to make them underdogs when the gold shirts arrive in Auckland later this week.
A team that has gone 18 games undefeated – yes, lest we forget it was a draw last Saturday in Sydney – does not look too much like New Zealand lamb for the slaughter to me. Forget the ignored penalties (although I’m sure Ewan won’t let Michael Hooper forget them) – the fact is the All Blacks didn’t lose – and they were the away side.
Of course New Zealand are not unbeatable – no side is – and at some point the Eden Park record will be broken, but you write them off at your peril. The Aussie chest beating and bravado has a distinct echo of the noises coming out of the England camp back in June when the All Blacks only just beat a largely second string outfit. Roll forward a couple of weeks and normal service had been resumed with an all-black day for Stuart Lancaster’s men.
Australia are unchanged – a surprise to me as I didn’t think Kurtley Beale was all that convincing at 10, whilst, for New Zealand, Ma’a Nonu and Jerome Kaino are almost certain to be missing. However Conrad Smith should return – probably the most effective and complete centre since BOD and Will Greenwood graced the turf. Keiran Read is, for me, the best player on the planet at the moment and if I was Steve Hansen I’d have Ritchie at 6 and bring in Sam Cane to combat the speed of Michael Hooper. Of course, if I was Steve Hansen I’d also smile a bit more!
I have the All Blacks protecting the Eden Park mystique and winning by 10
Of course I could easily end up with egg on my face at the final whistle – but at least I won’t be saying “Oh yes – I thought all along that….”.
Frankly it doesn’t matter if you agree with my prediction for next Saturday or think I’m talking nonsense – we’ll know soon enough and sitting on the fence is not my style – not when I can be on the sofa with a pasty and pint!
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Main Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images
