To fully understand just how difficult and complex it will be to pick the teams that will compete in the College Football Playoff this upcoming season, let’s look at last year and see what the possibilities were. Last year did not have too much controversy and drama over who played in the National Championship Game, but plenty of teams had a pretty solid claim on being in the top four. At least eight teams could have made a logical claim to being in that top four. As we parse through them, we can see what conundrums the selection committee would have faced last year, and what similar situations they are likely to face in the future.
Let’s start with a given that Florida State, as an undefeated major conference champion, was in. Going undefeated has long been the Holy Grail of college football and, even though it is not so rare, it is almost always rewarded. We can assume that an undefeated power conference champion will get in almost every year. Certainly one that was as dominant as Florida State was last year should never be left out.
After that, though, things can get murky. There are seven more teams with a case for those last three spots. And while Auburn seems like it would be an obvious pick, was it really? Their schedule was not much better than Alabama’s, but their loss was worse. After all, losing to 12-1 Auburn on the road on a miracle is nowhere near as bad as getting trounced by 9-3 LSU. A similar case could have been made by Ohio State (which we’ll get to later).
But, even if we assume that the whole “worst loss” arguments won’t work and that Auburn is in, there are still six candidates for those last two spots. For all the way public opinion favored Alabama from day 1, the Crimson Tide and Ohio State had relatively similar resumes. Stanford was the only major contender with two losses, but they also were the only one with a top 5 SOS. Knowing what the committee would have done with Stanford would have been a very clear benchmark on how much weight they will give SOS.
Similarly, knowing what they would have done with Alabama (we’ll assume they get the nod over Ohio State because of the season-long eye test and public perception) will tell us how willing they are to give teams that didn’t win their conferences a chance. Alabama certainly had a better only loss than Michigan State or Baylor. They had a similar overall resume to the Spartans and probably a stronger one than Baylor. Baylor had a tremendously flashy offense and the media loved them, but their schedule was weak and their defense at times was sketchy. And again, what about Stanford with their two losses but insane SOS? So what would the committee have done between these four teams, with only two spots left?
Does the committee even look at Ohio State? Ohio State had a similar resume to Alabama, but their main point of contention would be if Michigan State got in. They had a similar resume to the Spartans, but a better loss. Of course, there were qualms about the Buckeyes’ schedule all year, but the computer SOS numbers put them in the same ballpark as Michigan State and Alabama. Does the eye test, which the Buckeyes at times failed, count them out immediately?
All of this, of course, does not even mention UCF. The Knights played some poor games against bad competition late in the year, but they competed with top-talented teams when the opportunity presented itself. Their only loss was by a field goal to top 10 South Carolina. They could have made a pitch to the committee that they deserved a shot. And once we go there, one-loss Louisville could also claim they deserve a chance, especially as they were regarded as one of the most talented teams in the nation for most of the year. They lost to UCF, but they could certainly claim that they met the nebulous criteria of being one of “the best four teams” in terms of raw talent.
In short, for last year, we have one guarantee (Florida State) and a second team that we can pretty confidently say would have been in (Auburn). After that, there are four teams with very solid claims (Alabama, Stanford, Michigan State, and Baylor) for the last two spots. Which of those four get left out? And then there are two more teams (UCF, Ohio State) that could have made solid claims, though they fell slightly behind those last four. And all of this still ignores Louisville.
It certainly is not an easy job for the committee, especially because the farther you go down the rankings, the closer the teams are bunched together. It’s often relatively easy to find the #1 or even the #2 team. But once you get down to #3 and #4, a whole lot more teams can start making perfectly logical claims for their inclusion. It’s a tough job, but the 13-person committee has to do it.
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