The first half of the Florida Gator’s schedule is all about getting ready for their two road games against Alabama and Tennessee. Will Muschamp will use his first three games at home to break in the new offensive scheme under Kurt Roper and to make sure his defense stays as healthy and productive as possible before they head to Tuscaloosa.
2014 Florida Gators Schedule Analysis: Games 1-6
The two highlight games of the first half are against both of their SEC West foes. This is one of the dreaded years that both LSU and Alabama fall on the schedule together as the cross-divisional games. The Gators must navigate both of those schools in addition to South Carolina, Georgia, and a surprising Missouri squad.
The Gators will benefit from starting against two teams that had two of the worst defenses in the country last year. That should give them a chance to work out any offensive kinks before conference play. Florida should be hoping for a 5-1 or at the very least 4-2 stretch during this time if they are going to have a successful turn around season. As you will find out in part two, the back half of the schedule is loaded and they will have to come together as a unit during these six games or Will Muschamp’s days in Gainesville may be numbered.
Florida Gators 2014 Schedule Analysis
August 30th, vs. Idaho Vandals, 7:00 p.m. ESPNU
All eyes will be on the offense as Quarterback Jeff Driskel returns from a knee injury and takes the reigns of a new offensive scheme developed by new offensive coordinator Kurt Roper. Driskel’s 2013 season ended in just the third game against Tennessee and the red-shirt Junior will be looking to show he is healthy and ready to go against an Idaho team that had one of the worst defenses in the country a year ago, giving up just over 310 yards passing and 529 yards of total offense a game last season.
The defense has never been the question, so it will be the offense that will have to prove themselves in this opening game and they should be able to do just that considering the quality of opponent. It may not be indicative of how the offense will fare against conference competition, but it should get fans excited about the possibilities that lay ahead.
The offense should be able to stay pretty vanilla in play calling, and you may not see much of the Roper effect early in the season, but the Gators should have enough stud athletes to roll to a victory and get some of the sour taste of 2013 out of the mouths of Florida fans everywhere.
Prediction: Florida 59, Idaho 6
Record: 1-0 (0-0)
September 7th, vs. Eastern Michigan Eagles, 4:00 p.m., SEC Network
The Gators will wrap up the front end of their non-conference schedule by welcoming an Eastern Kentucky squad that had an equally bad defense as Idaho, giving up over 45 points per game. The Eagles were just as bad stopping the pass (258 yards/gm) as the run (178 yards/gm), and did this against MAC level competition. This will be another opportunity for the Gator offense to stay pretty basic, spread the ball out to the play-makers, and let their athleticism take control and carry them to victory. I don’t expect to see anything flashy the first two weeks but we should see a lot of points put on the scoreboard regardless. Points will be a welcome thing in Gainesville.
The defense will face a bit more stiff of a task week two. The Eagles feature a 1,000 rusher in Tyreese Russell, have a very highly recruited QB under center, and surround them with experienced wide receivers and offensive linemen. The Eagles will give the Gators a better look, but the athleticism of the Florida defense will be too much for them. They may rack up some yards, but it won’t equal many points.
The Gators defense will be sporting a single digit point per game total after they dominate in the first two games and will head into conference play with a ton of momentum. It should be a big load of the defense’s shoulders to see the offense putting up points the first two weeks even against lower level competition.
The Gators will roll in this one easy and improve to 2-0 on the young season.
Prediction: Florida 48, Eastern Michigan 9
Record: 2-0 (0-0)
September 14th, vs. Kentucky Wildcats, 7:30 p.m., SEC Network
The Gators begin SEC play by welcoming the Kentucky Wildcats. While the defense got it’s first test last week, this will be the first real test for the offense. Alabama will be next week, so they are still going to want to hold back a bit on offense. The Gators will try to win this game with as little of the playbook as possible. They will open it up as needed. Kentucky figures to be a much improved from the team that went 2-10 last season, but Florida should still be able to score enough early to win the ballgame because of their tremendous defense.
Kentucky will be running a fast paced, passing style offense brought in by former Texas Tech offensive coordinator Neal Brown and overseen by new head coach Mark Stoops. It will be the most athletic and toughest challenge to date for the Gator team as a whole, but Florida should have enough athletes to cover up Kentucky’s play-makers and limit their red-zone opportunities. Turnovers will likely have a big impact, and the Gators defense has the skill to take the ball away. I expect Vernon Hargreaves III to have a big game with Kentucky trying to throw the ball, and he could have a couple interceptions.
In the end Kentucky is improving, but going to the swamp this early in the season will be too much too soon. They will put up some yards the same way Eastern Michigan did, but key turnovers will be their undoing and the Gators will capitalize. They will improve to 3-0 and have a bit of momentum and confidence as they head to Tuscaloosa to face arguably their toughest test of the season.
Prediction: Florida 28, Kentucky 14
Record: 3-0 (1-0)
September 20th, @ ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE Tuscaloosa, Alabama, Time & TV Coverage TBD
The Gators face the first of their many ranked opponents week four when they head on the road to Alabama to face Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide. We all know the way that Alabama’s season ended last year with two consecutive losses, including a heart breaking last second loss to rival Auburn, missing the SEC Championship, and getting blown out in the Sugar Bowl by the Oklahoma Sooners. It’s safe to say they will be coming into this year looking to rip opponents heads off and get back to Atlanta and to the first ever College Football Playoff. Although they face West Virginia in week one, this game against Florida will be their first chance to get their hands on traditional competition and a chance for them to make a statement in front of their home fans.
This will be the fourth week under the new QB, which figures to be Florida State transfer Jacob Coker. He should be starting to settle in at the position since he has the luxury of having T.J. Yeldon in the backfield and Amari Cooper on the outside, among many other weapons. This may be the most talented offense that Alabama has had under Nick Saban. The Gators are going to have to mix it up on defense and find different ways to bring pressure and try to confuse whoever is back their throwing the ball, weather it be Coker or senior Blake Sims. Florida’s only chance in this game is to create turnovers for their offense, giving them short field position, and hope they play flawlessly and put up points when given the ball.
Jeff Driskel has shown he can be efficient and protect the ball as he did in 2012. He is going to have to play that way and hope that ball control and grinding out the game will tire the Alabama defense and eventually they will be able to take their shots. This will be the first game that the offense opens up the full playbook and the Tide will have to be ready for everything. The Gators will have to surprise them with a few things they haven’t seen and hope they get the explosive plays on offense that lead to touchdowns.
In the end I think the home crowd, the Alabama defense, and the question marks surrounding the Gator offense will be too much for Florida. They will be competitive throughout the ballgame and it will be an encouraging sign for the rest of the season, but they will come away with their first defeat of the season just because this Alabama team is too good. They have the talent on offense to go with their always stacked defense, and if Jacob Coker can protect the ball and make enough plays, they should be able to stay undefeated on the young season.
Prediction: Alabama: 24, Florida 17
Record: 3-1 (1-1)
September 27th, BYE WEEK
It will be crucial for the Gators to rest up and get as healthy as possible before they head to Tennessee. The injury bug was brutal last season and with a little luck they will be relatively healthy at this point in 2014. Tennessee showed great signs of improvement in Butch Jones’ first season at the helm and they figure to build upon that this season. Florida has dominated the series in the past decade and the Volunteers would like nothing more than to knock the Gators off at Neyland Stadium in front of their home fans. Muschamp will have to use this week to get his team ready and make any adjustments necessary to get this club rolling in the right direction. He can not afford to drop this game and have this be the year that Tennessee gets over the hump.
October 4th, @ TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS Knoxville, Tennessee, Time & TV Coverage TBD
The Gators will carrying plenty of extra motivation to the field after a loss to Alabama when they play Tennessee, not that they need it for this traditional rivalry game. The Gators have won the last nine games in the rivalry and 17 of the past 21. Tennessee is thirsty for a win in this series, they crave it. They have had this game circled on the calendar for months and will give their best effort in this one.
The Gators will have the offensive playbook wide open at this point. Everything is on the table and Jeff Driskel is expected to carry this club as the experienced junior. The offense is now in it’s fifth game in the new system, they have had fall and spring practices, and should be showing the full dynamics of Kurt Roper’s scheme as well as the full range of Driskel’s NFL capable skills. I expect the offense to finally explode and put up big numbers against SEC caliber competition in this one.
Tennessee will be breaking in as many as seven or eight new starters on defense, along with an entirely new offensive line on the other side of the ball. Both of those things are recipes for disaster. The one thing they do have going for them is that they will be battle tested having just traveled to BOTH Oklahoma and Georgia the previous two weeks prior to this game. That also may hurt them if they get run all over and the team loses confidence or players due to injury, which I believe will be the case as they drop their third straight game in this one.
Prediction: Florida 41, Tennessee 14
Record: 4-1 (2-1)
October 11th, vs. LSU Tigers, Time & TV Coverage TBD
The LSU Tigers come to the Swamp and provide the first test at home for Will Muschamp and company. The season will be off to a good start at this point and the fan base will be rejuvenated causing an ELECTRIC atmosphere in the swamp for this game. I believe that is going to have a huge impact as will the experience under center once again. The majority of teams in the SEC are breaking in a new QB this season and the Tigers are no different. LSU will be bouncing back and forth between sophomore Anthony Jennings and true freshmen Brandon Harris all season, never allowing either guy get in a rhythm. Their offense will suffer because of it and be inconsistent all season. The only bright spot will be freshmen RB Leonard Fournette who will be dynamic even with defenses stacking the box.
However, the Gators defense will be one of the few that will be able to contain Fournette. Add that with the fact that the young QB will make a few key mistakes under the bright lights and pressure in the Swamp, and you have a recipe for a low scoring, grind it out Gator victory. Just the way Will Muschamp wants to play.
This will be a classic Will Muschamp victory. Much like two years ago, he will get a small lead, grind out the clock, play the game of field position, and let his defense come up with the big plays. Only this time, he will get a few big plays from his growing offense as well. This victory will be huge and really send the Gators off into the second half of the season with tons of momentum.
Prediction: Florida 20, LSU 17
Record: 5-1 (3-1)
1st Half Outlook:
The first half of the season will come to a close with a tremendous back and forth battle that comes right down to the wire and gives Gator fans a huge amount of confidence heading into the second half of the year. Coming off a 4-8 campaign, a 5-1 start is beyond what most fan expectations are heading into this season and should do a lot to calm the chatter for Muschamp’s job. However, there is another entire half a season of football to be played with a schedule that includes South Carolina, Georgia, Florida State, and Missouri. It will be all about how the Gators finish, now how they start.
Although this is a hell of a start.
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