The New England Patriots have dominated the AFC East for over a decade, winning five straight divisional titles and ten of the last eleven. Last season was no different, as the Patriots finished four games ahead of both the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins. Will someone finally step up to the plate and challenge the Patriots, or will Tom Brady and Bill Belichick continue to prevail for the next few years?
AFC East Predictions
New England Patriots: 2013 Season Record (12-4)
America loves to “overvalue” their beloved teams, whether it be the Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Lakers, or New York Yankees. But, for some reason, the New England Patriots sometimes don’t get their due respect. What Tom Brady and the Patriots did last year, finishing with a 12-4 record with a hobbled team filled with a bunch of holes, is nothing short of spectacular.
Brady had to try and develop some unproven youngsters at the wide receiver position in Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson. Danny Amendola was supposed to be the heir apparent to Wes Welker, but he was injured and never found a groove. Speaking of injury, tight end Rob Gronkowski missed the majority of the season with a torn ACL and MCL. If they can both stay healthy, added to Julian Edelman, I expect Brady and the Patriots offense to have a bounce-back season. Brady, now 36-years-old, saw his yards-per-attempt drop to a paltry 6.9, and his completion percentage was his lowest since his first season as a starter at 60.5%.
Where the Patriots will receive the biggest gains, though, is on defense. They got torched on many occasions last season in pass coverage. So, they went out and signed legendary cornerback Darrelle Revis as well as complementary cornerback Brandon Browner from the Seattle Seahawks. This will be a huge upgrade for them, as they now have one of the best secondaries in the NFL. Three of the four losses the Patriots had in 2013 were decided by four points or less, so even a slight improvement will keep them atop this division by a mile. The Patriots are a stellar home team as well. Since 2003, the Patriots are 85-15 as hosts and were 9-0 last year, including a playoff win.
2014 Projection: 12-4
MIAMI DOLPHINS: 2013 Season Record (8-8)
Last season, the Miami Dolphins were expected to have a stellar offense with the signing of Mike Wallace from the Pittsburgh Steelers. Things didn’t pan out as planned, however, as the offense averaged a meager 19.8 points per game. The Dolphins do have a decent wide receiver next to Wallace in Brian Hartline, who seemed to click with quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Tight end Charles Clay was a huge part of the offense last season as well, with six touchdowns and 759 yards. He will be an even more integral piece moving forward in 2014.
The offense will get a nice boost at the running back position with the signing of Knowshon Moreno from the Denver Broncos. The issue with Moreno is staying healthy, especially after a knee injury this offseason. That will allow for a very underrated Lamar Miller to shine as the go-to back in 2014. They will need everyone to step up on offense, as Tannehill is blossoming into a great quarterback.
The defense is another story, as is the offensive line. There are holes and weaknesses at almost every defensive position, and the offensive line is in rebuild mode after all of the locker room turmoil last season. Tannehill was sacked a ridiculous 58 times last year, which will impede any young quarterback’s growth.
Miami may be the second-best team in the division, but they are still a long way away from challenging the Patriots.
2014 Projection: 7-9
Buffalo Bills: 2013 Season Record (6-10)
Coming into training camp, I anticipated picking the Bills to make a run at a decent nine- or ten-win season. Once the Bills brightest young star, linebacker Kiko Alonso, went down with a torn ACL, I started to have second thoughts. Combine this with the departure of stellar free safety Jairus Byrd, and the powerful Bills defense starts to look quite diminished. EJ Manuel was very fragile as a rookie, and the jury is still out on what the Bills have in him as a quarterback. He has the tools and the potential to be a bonafide starter for years to come. Staying healthy is going to be his biggest challenge in 2014, as well as gelling with the young regime that coach Doug Marrone has built.
The Bills traded up in this year’s draft to acquire Sammy Watkins out of Clemson. Watkins is the real deal and many tout him to have the skills that will make him a perennial Pro Bowl candidate. If his amazing 2014 Orange Bowl performance (16 receptions for 227 yards and MVP) is any indication, Buffalo fans are looking at the future face of the franchise. They already have a majestic backfield in CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson. Spiller led the league in yards per carry in 2012 before struggling at times last season. Jackson seemed to surpass Spiller as the go-to back in Buffalo, and he is a true workhorse at the running back position. Spiller is the better running back, but he will need to take the leap in 2014.
The Buffalo “Williams” (yes, I called them by their lengthened name) now have six starters with the same surname. Defensive end Mario Williams, defensive tackle Kyle Williams, left guard Chris Williams, safety Aaron Williams, safety Duke Williams and newly-acquired wide receiver Mike Williams out of Tampa Bay all share this surname. A totally irrelevant tidbit, but when a team hasn’t had a winning season since 2004, there is not a lot of relevant information to discuss. Expect Buffalo to challenge Miami for second fiddle in the AFC East.
2014 Projection: 7-9
New York Jets: 2013 Season Record (8-8)
Rex Ryan is entering his sixth season as head coach of the New York Jets. With the talent the Jets had, I take my hat off to Ryan and the coaching staff on somehow getting this team to an 8-8 record in 2013. They have been pushing the Patriots, with tough smash-mouth defense, in this division for five hard years, but they are a shadow of the team that hit the field over the last few seasons.
This year, they went out and acquired a couple household names that will bring excitement to the Big Apple, sell a whole pile of jerseys, and fill the stands: quarterback Michael Vick from the Philadelphia Eagles, running back Chris Johnson from the Tennessee Titans and wide receiver Eric Decker from the Denver Broncos. Vick is an injury-prone turnover machine in the twilight of his career that just does not have the mobility to be a threat anymore. Chris Johnson doesn’t have the speed to break tackles that he once had. Four years ago, he was a dynamo that cracked the 2,000-yard barrier and averaged 5.6 yards per carry. In 2013, he barely broke 1,000 yards and his yards per carry dipped to 3.9. Coming off of a torn meniscus, he will never be back to his former glory. Decker is a decent wide receiver, but excelled mostly due to balls being thrown his way from one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game in Peyton Manning. Geno Smith and Vick aren’t quite the same caliber. Decker was grossly overpaid this offseason. Most players that leave a Super Bowl contender to sign big contracts on a sub-par team never excel, as they are just chasing the money.
With a brutal opening to the schedule in 2014, I expect the Jets to be out of the running very early. Thus, they will potentially be in “throwing in the towel” mode, and be in the chase for the top pick in the 2015 NFL Draft: Oregon stud quarterback Marcus Mariota.
2014 Projection: 5-11
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