We start our 2014 College football Season Previews with a lock at the 2014 SEC East. Last season the conference’s East division was won by the Missouri Tigers. But with a new football season, its all up for grabs again.
2014 SEC East Preview
Florida Gators
Coming off an embarrassing, injury-riddled losing season- their first since 1979- the Gators have several questions on offense. Junior quarterback Jeff Driskel is healthy after suffering a broken leg last season, but he’s going to be throwing to several new targets. Senior Quinton Dunbar is the only starting receiver to return, and he may have to play a big role as the guys around him get their feet wet. Sophomore running back Kelvin Taylor established himself in the second half of last season; he and senior Mack Brown will share carries. The biggest question may be the offensive line, where just one of last year’s starters is back. They do get back two experienced linemen who missed time last season due to injury.
The Gators’ defense should be reasonably good. Seven starters are back, including all three linemen and three of the four linebackers. The secondary, beyond returning sophomore Vernon Hargreaves, is young and unproven. Hargreaves is an excellent young cornerback, but he’ll need some guys around him to establish themselves as well. One area in which the defense needs to improve is sacks- they averaged under two per game last year.
In 2012, punter Kyle Christy was a finalist for the Ray Guy award. Last year, he lost his starting job. He’ll be trying to reclaim it this season. Florida had serious issues in the kicking game last season, going just 12-of-22 on field goal attempts. Obviously, that number has to improve substantially.
Prediction: I don’t see the Gators suffering another losing season; however, I don’t see them avoiding a losing season by much. Their non-conference schedule is a cakewalk (other than Florida State, of course), but they face Alabama, LSU, Missouri, Georgia, and South Carolina. I think 6-6 is a reasonable expectation.
Georgia Bulldogs
Quarterback Aaron Murray may be gone, but senior Hutson Mason should prove to be a capable replacement. Mason knows the offense, having backed up Murray for three years, and he got the opportunity to play two and a half games after Murray was injured late last season. The receiver corps has a fair amount of depth and experience, and junior Todd Gurley is a true stud at running back. So is fellow junior Keith Marshall, who tore his ACL last October but should return to play this season. Three starters are gone from last year’s offensive line, but their replacements have all seen spot duty. If everyone stays healthy, the line is the only real question mark.
Ten starters are back from a defense that gave up a school-record number of points last season. Their coordinator, however, is not, as Todd Grantham is replaced by Florida State’s Jeremy Pruitt. The run defense wasn’t terrible last year, but the secondary was a glaring weakness. The dismissal of safety Josh Harvey-Clemons won’t help them there, but a year of experience and the hire of Pruitt, who will also coach the defensive backs, should.
Marshall Morgan went 22-of-24 on field goals last season and was All-SEC. Junior punter Collin Barber needs to be more consistent.
Prediction: The ‘Dogs have three tough games on tap: road games at South Carolina and Mizzou, and Auburn at home. I’m predicting 10-2, with one or two losses coming in those aforementioned games and an unexpected one somewhere along the line. They’ll be the SEC East champs.
Kentucky Wildcats
The Wildcats return five starters from an offense that ranked 98th in passing last season. The starting quarterback has yet to be chosen (although it should be any day now) from among four candidates, and there’s only one returning starter at wide receiver and running back combined. Is there any good news for Kentucky fans? Well, four starting offensive linemen are back. That’s good news for the running game. And while none of the running backs have started before, a few were very highly regarded coming out of high school. With no idea what the passing game will look like, it’s hard to overstate the importance of a good run game.
Defensive end looks to be the strong point on the defense, where the massive Za’Darius Smith (6’6″, 264 lbs.) and Bud Dupree (6’4″, 267 lbs.) combined for 13 sacks last season. Both starting outside linebackers return, and the secondary looks to be in decent shape with multiple starters returning, as well as 2012 starter J.D. Harmon, who was academically ineligible last year.
Punter Landon Foster was injured for much of the 2013 season, but is healthy and should be back to his 2012 form. Redshirt freshman Austin MacGinnis was one of the highest-ranked kickers in the country coming out of high school.
Prediction: The Wildcats’ non-conference schedule, other than in-state rival Louisville, is a cakewalk. Their conference schedule doesn’t include Alabama or Auburn, (although they play at LSU) and South Carolina and Georgia are both at home. In other words, it could be worse. I think they double their win total from last season and go 4-8.
Missouri Tigers
Last year’s surprise SEC East champion Missouri has four starters returning from an offense that no one saw coming a year ago. Quarterback James Franklin is gone, but now-sophomore Maty Mauk filled in better than anyone could have expected when Franklin missed several games. That experience should serve him well as the unquestioned starter in 2014. It’s not clear, however, exactly who will be catching Mauk’s passes. The top three receivers from last year’s team are gone- two to graduation, and former top recruit Dorial Green-Beckham to dismissal from the team. (Green-Beckham has transferred to Oklahoma). Leading rusher Henry Josey has also graduated, but Russell Hansbrough and Marcus Murphy did a more-than-adequate job backing him up; the run game should be in good hands. Both starting tackles, as well as the center, return on the offensive line.
Mizzou is in an unusual situation on defense, in that they lost both starting ends to the NFL, and yet end is probably the last position they’re concerned about. When the two guys replacing your starters combined for 11 sacks and 22 tackles for loss as backups, you’re in pretty good shape. Senior Matt Hoch is a returning starter at nose tackle. Beyond the front three, however, there are some question marks on defense. Kentrell Brothers returns at middle linebacker, but there’s not much experience at that position other than his. The backfield, too, has just one starter returning.
The Tigers’ return game should again be above-average. Kicker Andrew Baggett and punter Christian Brinser are both returning starters. Special teams shouldn’t be an issue.
Prediction: Mizzou hit the jackpot as far as schedule, avoiding Alabama, Auburn, and LSU; they also get conference foe Georgia at home. South Carolina on the road is the only game where I don’t like their odds at all. I see the Tigers finishing 9-3 behind division champ Georgia and South Carolina.
South Carolina Gamecocks
Dylan Thompson takes over at quarterback for good, after performing admirably as the oft-injured Connor Shaw’s backup the last two years. He’s got a talented and fairly experienced group of receivers at his disposal. Junior running back Mike Davis is healthy, and if he can stay that way, the running game is in good hands. He’s not a huge guy, but Davis rushed for 1,183 yards in 2013 despite dealing with nagging injuries. The offensive line has three starters back as well.
The Gamecocks’ defense suffered two huge losses last spring, as junior linemen Jadeveon Clowney and Kelcy Quarles both declared for the NFL draft. That leaves some question marks in the front four. The linebacking corps should be in good shape; sophomore Skai Moore led the Gamecocks in tackles last season as a freshman, and starters are returning at both outside spots. There are questions in the backfield, where depth is a concern.
The kicking game should be in good shape. Punting yardage was a problem last season and needs to get better.
Prediction: The SEC could be decided on September 13th, when Georgia visits Williams-Brice Stadium. I like Georgia in that game, which would give the ‘Dogs the tiebreaker as I see both teams finishing 10-2. South Carolina’s other loss will likely be at Auburn in late October.
Tennessee Volunteers
Senior Justin Worley has emerged from a three-way competition as the Vols’ starting quarterback. He’s got two returning starters at wideout, plus another at tight end, and some freshman and juco talent to throw to. Junior receiver Alton “Pig” Howard has returned to the team as well, after time away for unspecified personal reasons. There are questions about how efficient the running game will be, though. The Vols rushed for 2,261 yards a year ago, but not a single starter from what was clearly a very good offensive line is back. Senior Marlin Lane has had a very nice career at UT, and freshman Jalen Hurd is highly regarded, but if the line can’t open holes for them it won’t matter.
Five starters return on the defense, all but one in the backfield. Senior linebacker A.J. Johnson is the sole returning starter on the two-deep in the front seven, and there are several freshman listed on it as well. The backfield should be in somewhat better shape, so look for teams to rely heavily on the run against Tennessee, especially early in the season.
Kicker/punter Michael Palardy graduated, and his replacement(s) are up in the air. Matt Darr is expected to be the starting punter, but the kicking competition continues.
Prediction: The Vols are still at least a year or two away from recapturing their former glory. To add insult to injury, they have road games at Georgia AND South Carolina, and a non-conference game AT Oklahoma. Ouch. I can’t see them finishing much better than 5-7.
Vanderbilt Commodores
First the bad news for Vandy: they needs to replace two receivers who, according to Athlon Sports, “accounted for 92% of the team’s production at the position”. They’re also apparently still conducting a six-player competition at quarterback. The good news is that they have four starters from the offensive line returning, and two small but skilled running backs in juniors Jerron Seymour (a 2013 starter) and Brian Kimbrow. The team isn’t exactly built to new head coach Derek Mason’s preferences, but like many coaches in a new situation, he’ll have to work with what he’s got until he can get a couple of his own recruiting classes into the lineup.
Going from a 4-3 to a 3-4 base defense has meant some position changes for players. Senior defensive tackle Vince Taylor, for example, will now be the nose guard- a position that should suit him nicely, given his 6’2″, 310-pound frame. Taylor is one of just three returning starters on defense, but with players changing positions anyway, I don’t see that as the negative it sometimes is. The backfield in particular suffered several injuries last year, so many of the young players there have actually played a fair amount- a good thing, since there are no returning starters at safety or corner.
Kicker Casey Spear graduated, and his replacement is still in question. The punting competition hasn’t concluded yet either.
Prediction: The Commodores face both Missouri and Georgia on the road, and South Carolina at home. They lost a lot of talent from last year’s 9-4 team- I can’t see them finishing more than 6-6.
Predicted Order Of Finish
1. Georgia, 10-2
2. South Carolina, 10-2
3. Missouri, 9-3
4. Florida, 6-6
5. Vanderbilt, 6-6
6. Tennessee, 5-7
7. Kentucky, 4-8
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