What to Make of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's US Open Chances?

When Jo-Wilfried Tsonga stunned the tennis world by making the finals of the 2008 Australian Open, it seemed like he was on his way to winning multiple majors.  He displayed the rare combination of elite power and feathery touch that most players can only dream of.  After Tsonga hit seemingly dozens of breathtaking drop volley winners in his straight sets win over Rafael Nadal, it was hard not to become a fan.  While Tsonga has had plenty of success since that time, he hasn’t made his way back to a Grand Slam final.

After his dominating performance at the Rogers Cup Masters tournament in Toronto, the US Open suddenly looks like it may be Tsonga’s best chance to win a major.  He did lose his first match in Cincinnati to Mikahil Youzhny, but that was expected given his draining week in Toronto and the short turnaround time between tournaments.

Tsonga finds himself looking at a US Open field that is less intimidating than any he has seen in years.  Rafael Nadal will likely return from his wrist injury to play, but he won’t have played any tournaments since Wimbledon.  It’s hard to imagine Nadal will be ready to play his best tennis with so few recent matches.  Andy Murray hasn’t been himself all year, and doesn’t seem like a threat to do too much damage in New York.  Roger Federer has been playing very well as of late, but Tsonga knows he can beat him after their match in the finals of Toronto.  Novak Djokovic should be the tournament favorite no matter what he does in Cincinnati, but he seems vulnerable as well given how easily Tsonga took him out in Toronto.

There will be plenty of other threats to Tsonga’s chances, but many of them have serious question marks.  Tomas Berdych and Stan Wawrinka have cooled off considerably since their hot starts to the year, and David Ferrer hasn’t been playing his best tennis as of late either.  Younger stars Grigor Dimitrov and Milos Raonic should be poised to make deep runs at the Open, but both still seem a year away from challenging for the title.

Tsonga’s confidence will clearly be as high as it has been in years, and he should be healthy and rested heading into the tournament.  Much has been expected of him before, and he has failed to deliver at the highest levels.  However, he has had the unfortunate luck of playing his prime years in the era of the “Big Four.”  Now that the “Big Four” is showing some signs of vulnerability, and the next generation isn’t quite here yet, this might be the perfect chance for Tsonga to step in and steal a slam.

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