The A’s are confident in their ability to win it all this year. 2014 is the perfect storm for the Oakland A’s, and not just because of their own roster. Big market teams such as the Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs, Phillies, and Mets are either mediocre or just flat-out bad. The Tigers added Price, but still possess one of the worst bullpens in all of baseball. They also lost an above average center fielder in Austin Jackson.
Their isn’t a $200 million dollar team that’s standing in the A’s way this year. The Dodgers could be a possible exception, but the two would only meet in the World Series anyway. The time is now for Billy Beane and the A’s.
Prior to the Lester deal, the A’s division series (5 games) rotation was:
Samardzija
Gray
Kazmir
Hammel
Samardzija
Following the trade, the Oakland rotation projects to be
Lester
Samardzjia
Gray
Kazmir
Lester
So, in the event the series goes 5 games, Lester replaces Samardzija as the game 5 starter. A marginal upgrade considering the two are established top of the rotation starters.
In the ALCS, this deal means that Kazmir only makes one start instead of two. Without Lester the rotation would have been:
Samardzija
Gray
Kazmir
Hammell
Samardzija
Gray
Kazmir (if necessary)
Now, the rotation projects to be:
Lester
Samardzija
Gray
Kazmir
Lester
Samardzija
Gray (if necessary)
So, Samardzija and Gray are still scheduled to make 2 starts. The addition means that Kazmir makes one less start in favor of Lester.
Are the A’s more likely to win with Lester on the mound and Gomes in left field or Kazmir and Cespedes?
Scott Kazmir poses durability concerns for the A’s. He hasn’t thrown over 168 innings in over 7 minor and major league seasons. It’s impossible to overlook Kazmir’s history of arm injuries. He dealt with triceps tightness during spring training. Kazmir was also removed from a start in mid April after experiencing pain in his left triceps.
Jon Lester, meanwhile, has thrown over 200 innings in 5 of the last 6 seasons. The three time all-star is locating his four pitch mix better this year as evidenced by his 1.5 K/9 increase from last year. His BB/9 meanwhile, has decreased by almost a full point.
In addition, the A’s are hitting a mere .242 against left handed pitching. The acquisition of Jon Lester means they avoid the possibility of facing him in the playoffs.
The wild card game is essentially a one game playoff this year. The addition of Lester increases the A’s chances of avoiding the “coin flip game.” This way, the A’s make the Angels deal with the wildcard game while they set themselves up for the division series.
The trade makes sense for the Red Sox as well. Being 10.5 games out of the wild card race, the Sox want to sacrifice wins this year with the goal of remaining competitive in 2015. Cespedes at $10.5 million next season is a team friendly contract, and Boston can pursue Lester via free agency.
Cespedes is a right-handed powerful pull hitter who projects to hit for a better average and more power in Fenway park.
The Red Sox also receive the second pick in the competitive balance Round B of next years draft. It’s been established that a 2nd round pick is worth over $3.5 million in surplus value to a team. The competitive balance round B follows the 2nd round of the draft.
It’s a trade that generated headlines and I see it improving both teams. Jon Lester will help the A’s avoid the one game playoff and propel them deep into October. Cespedes approach at the plate will provide ample offense in Fenway park.
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