Finally! The day that you have anticipated for eight long months is here. Draft day, baby! You’re so excited that you log into your fantasy draft lobby an hour early, but you realize that you weren’t fortunate enough to land a top pick. Crud.
As you scroll down the draft order, you finally see your team in no man’s land, seventh overall, stuck right in the dreaded middle. What do you do? Is your season doomed before it even starts? Don’t worry, take a deep breath, crack open a cold one, draft a QB, and follow along as I explain everything.
After reviewing the combined ADP (Average Draft Position) of five well known fantasy sites, it’s clear to see that there is a premium on elite running backs. They are flying off the board early and rightfully so. Ever since offensive coordinators began to lean on a two headed rushing attack, a true workhorse RB is endangered, but not yet extinct.
Having the seventh pick, we are going to assume that we will not be able to land any of these top tier running backs. I like to use 2013 fantasy points per week (Total 2013 FP/Games Played) as a gauge of a player’s value. I prefer the cold hard statistics over the projections and hype.
| ADP | Player Name | FPPW | Position | Team |
| 1 | LeSean McCoy | 17.4 | RB | PHI |
| 2 | Jamaal Charles | 20.5 | RB | KC |
| 3 | Adrian Peterson | 14.6 | RB | MIN |
| 4 | Matt Forte | 16.3 | RB | CHI |
| 5 | Eddie Lacy | 13.8 | RB | GB |
| 8 | Marshawn Lynch | 15.0 | RB | SEA |
| AVERAGE | 16.3 |
*FPPW= Fantasy Points per Week (Total 2013 FP/Games Played)
Being on the wrong side of the running back bubble brings you to a crossroad that will influence how the rest of your roster will be constructed. And here is why you need to take a QB.
Taking an elite QB (Manning, Brees, Rodgers) will give you a 7-9 point advantage on average at the QB position in almost every fantasy matchup. That is higher than a top tier RB advantage (6.5), and the WR matchup advantage (5.2).
Moreover, taking an elite QB will give you a point scorer that can help combat deficiencies and weaknesses at other positions. I prefer the QBs in that order listed above; however you can make the case for any three of those three bad men to be the first QB taken off the board.
The following chart shows how many more points Peyton Manning averages a week vs. other QBs.
| ADP | Position | Player Name | FPPW | Difference |
| 7 | QB | Peyton Manning | 26.4 | 0 |
| 15 | QB | Drew Brees | 22.6 | -3.8 |
| 17 | QB | Aaron Rodgers | 18.8 | -7.5 |
| 40 | QB | Matthew Stafford | 17.7 | -8.7 |
| 43 | QB | Andrew Luck | 18.0 | -8.3 |
| 55 | QB | Robert Griffin III | 16.7 | -9.7 |
| 56 | QB | Cam Newton | 18.7 | -7.6 |
| 60 | QB | Nick Foles | 20.0 | -6.4 |
| 61 | QB | Tom Brady | 15.8 | -10.5 |
| 70 | QB | Colin Kaepernick | 17.0 | -9.4 |
| 71 | QB | Matt Ryan | 16.0 | -10.4 |
| 87 | QB | Tony Romo | 17.4 | -9.0 |
| 93 | QB | Russell Wilson | 17.5 | -8.9 |
| 103 | QB | Jay Cutler | 15.3 | -11.0 |
| 105 | QB | Philip Rivers | 18.3 | -8.1 |
| 125 | QB | Ben Roethlisberger | 16.9 | -9.5 |
| 131 | QB | Andy Dalton | 18.4 | -8.0 |
Not only does drafting a QB give you a positional matchup advantage, it also provides great value for your pick. Compared to the potential picks that could go 7-12, a top tier QB will average 13.2 more fantasy points per week than other potential first round picks.
| ADP | Position | Player Name | FPPW | Difference |
| 7 | QB | Manning/Brees/Rodgers | 25.0 | 0 |
| 9 | TE | Jimmy Graham | 13.8 | -11.2 |
| 10 | WR | Demaryius Thomas | 14.2 | -10.8 |
| 11 | RB | Arian Foster | 10.6 | -14.4 |
| 12 | RB | Montee Ball | 5.5 | -19.5 |
| 13 | WR | Dez Bryant | 12.5 | -12.5 |
| 14 | RB | DeMarco Murray | 14.7 | -10.4 |
| 16 | WR | A.J. Green | 13.0 | -12.0 |
| 18 | RB | Le’Veon Bell | 13.2 | -11.8 |
| 19 | WR | Brandon Marshall | 12.6 | -12.4 |
| 20 | WR | Julio Jones | 13.6 | -11.4 |
| 21 | RB | Giovani Bernard | 10.4 | -14.6 |
| 22 | RB | Doug Martin | 9.7 | -15.3 |
| 23 | RB | Alfred Morris | 10.6 | -14.4 |
| 24 | WR | Jordy Nelson | 11.2 | -13.8 |
After you’ve selected your weapon of choice, it is time to look at what you should do with your second round pick. Looking at the WRs, there are eight that can be considered elite.
| ADP | Position | Player Name | FPPW | Difference |
| 6 | WR | Calvin Johnson | 15.7 | 0 |
| 10 | WR | Demaryius Thomas | 14.2 | -1.5 |
| 13 | WR | Dez Bryant | 12.5 | -3.2 |
| 16 | WR | A.J. Green | 13.0 | -2.6 |
| 19 | WR | Brandon Marshall | 12.6 | -3.1 |
| 20 | WR | Julio Jones | 13.6 | -2.1 |
| 24 | WR | Jordy Nelson | 11.2 | -4.4 |
| 26 | WR | Antonio Brown | 12.7 | -2.9 |
As you can see, Calvin Johnson only averages 2.8 more fantasy points per week than the rest of the WRs in his tier. This small difference shows you that you will be able to be competitive at the WR1 matchup, and still maintain a healthy cushion from the QB matchup.
These top tier WRs don’t provide a big enough positional advantage to warrant a first round selection. Selecting an elite WR in the second round will keep you competitive within that WR matchup.
Fine, I’ll talk about running backs, but only in the form of an ESPN 30 for 30 commercial.
What if I told you the elite running back tier only averaged 6.5 more fantasy points per week than the next 30 drafted running backs last season.
That Arian Foster is being taken 97 picks ahead of Danny Woodhead, but only averaged 1.4 more fantasy points per week than him.
What if I told you that if you don’t get one of the top 6 RBs, it doesn’t really matter who you draft.
| ADP | Player Name | FPPW | Position | Team |
| 11 | Arian Foster | 10.6 | RB | HOU |
| 12 | Montee Ball | 5.5 | RB | DEN |
| 14 | DeMarco Murray | 14.7 | RB | DAL |
| 18 | Le’Veon Bell | 13.2 | RB | PIT |
| 21 | Giovani Bernard | 10.4 | RB | CIN |
| 22 | Doug Martin | 9.7 | RB | TB |
| 23 | Alfred Morris | 10.6 | RB | WAS |
| 25 | Zac Stacy | 11.2 | RB | STL |
| 31 | Andre Ellington | 8.4 | RB | ARI |
| 32 | Reggie Bush | 13.2 | RB | DET |
| 35 | C.J. Spiller | 8.1 | RB | BUF |
| 37 | Ryan Mathews | 11.5 | RB | SD |
| 46 | Frank Gore | 10.9 | RB | SF |
| 49 | Toby Gerhart | 3.4 | RB | JAC |
| 53 | Rashad Jennings | 9.2 | RB | NYG |
| 54 | Chris Johnson | 12.4 | RB | NYJ |
| 58 | Ben Tate | 7.9 | RB | CLE |
| 63 | Shane Vereen | 10.9 | RB | NE |
| 65 | Ray Rice | 7.9 | RB | BAL |
| 72 | Joique Bell | 10.1 | RB | DET |
| 76 | Stevan Ridley | 8.4 | RB | NE |
| 77 | Steven Jackson | 9.6 | RB | ATL |
| 89 | Maurice Jones-Drew | 9.3 | RB | OAK |
| 91 | Pierre Thomas | 8.5 | RB | NO |
| 95 | Knowshon Moreno | 14.8 | RB | MIA |
| 97 | Darren Sproles | 7.0 | RB | PHI |
| 99 | Fred Jackson | 11.7 | RB | BUF |
| 101 | Lamar Miller | 6.1 | RB | MIA |
| 108 | Danny Woodhead | 9.2 | RB | SD |
| AVERAGE | 9.8 |
As you can see, the QB positional advantage of 7-9 points can cover your disadvantage against top tier RBs. You can also find value and quality starters throughout the draft that will keep your RB matchup competitive. With the ever looming chance of injury that comes with the position, you need to draft a high volume of running backs and see which ones stick. If you can average around 20-25 points per week from your two running backs, you will be competitive in every fantasy matchup.
Hopefully you found this to be insightful and I hope it helps you back up all that trash talking that you’ve been doing all summer!
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