There’s always a “best-case/worst-case” sentiment associated with analyzing a team’s schedule in the preseason. From the standpoint of Ohio State’s first six games of 2014, that best-case scenario is a 6-0 record going into the home stretch. If there are opportunities for slip-ups if the Buckeyes aren’t careful, it’s in their two non-conference matchups with Virginia Tech and Cincinnati, as well as game one of Big Ten play at Maryland.
If the Buckeyes can exit the first half of the year unscathed in the loss column, they should figure to be highly regarded when the selection committee for the College Football Playoff releases their first rankings around the season’s midway point. More than ever now, it’s not just wins that are important, but also the quality of those wins. Ohio State’s out-of-conference slate should be a positive in this regard, especially if they’re undefeated.
Having already analyzed the opening six games of Ohio State’s 2014 campaign, let’s now turn our attention to the final six opponents they will face in their quest for Big Ten supremacy and Playoff inclusion. Times and TV coverage will be included if available, but the Big Ten customarily announces late season game times on the Monday previous to the week the game takes place.
Ohio State Buckeyes Schedule Analysis
October 25 – at Penn State, 8 pm, ABC ESPN or ESPN2
The second half of the season commences with a trip to Happy Valley for a date in prime time with a Nittany Lions team riding a lot of momentum going into 2014. Former Vanderbilt coach James Franklin was about as good a hire as the program could get after current Houston Texans head coach Bill O’Brien did as admirable a job in his two years as you could expect given what Penn State has gone through recently.
The Nittany Lions will be chomping at the bit to erase memories of the 63-14 shellacking they received from the Buckeyes last year in Columbus. Quarterback Christian Hackenberg should be much improved as a true sophomore, and has a potential playmaking weapon in true freshman wideout DeAndre Thompkins. Much like Ohio State though, the offensive line is inexperienced. Major injuries in spring didn’t help, so pass protection could be an issue against the Buckeyes’ battle-hardened front seven.
Prediction: Ohio State 45-21
Record: 7-0 (3-0 in Big 10)
November 1 – vs Illinois, 8 pm, ABC ESPN or ESPN2
The final month of the regular season opens with the Buckeyes returning to the Horseshoe to face a Fighting Illini team that showed flashes of brilliance last season yet still finished 4-8. Oklahoma State transfer Wes Lunt figures to succeed the school’s all-time leader in yardage in Nathan Scheelhaase at quarterback, although he still has to impress in August to guarantee he’s the starter.
Ohio State gave up the second-most points of the year in Champaign last season when Illinois scored 35 on them. Unfortunately for the Illini, they also conceded 60 themselves, and defense will continue to be the sticking point in 2014. Head coach Tim Beckman is reportedly on the hot seat, and I don’t think this game helps his cause.
Prediction: Ohio State 55-24
Record: 8-0 (4-0 in Big 10)
November 8 – at Michigan State, 8 pm, ABC
It’s possible that the Big Ten loosened its rules on playing night games in November for epic showdowns like this one. If the Scarlet and Grey want revenge against the opponent that ruined their conference title hopes in last year’s championship game, they’re going to have to travel to East Lansing to get it. Win this one and the Buckeyes massively improve their Playoff hopes if they run the table the rest of the way, even with an early loss.
From a defensive standpoint, the roles could be reversed between these two teams from their Big Ten Championship meeting last December. Michigan State clearly had the upper hand on that side of the ball in Indianapolis, but Ohio State returns practically their entire front seven while the Spartans only return five regular starters on defense altogether.
This is a tough one to call but I think home field advantage takes precedence here. Expect a low-scoring slugfest that comes down to the last team that has the ball. Spartan quarterback Connor Cook had an MVP performance in the Rose Bowl and outplayed Miller passing-wise in their last meeting. If the game is tied late and MSU has the ball, Cook is undoubtedly capable of driving down the field and putting kicker Michael Geiger (15/16 in FGs last season) in position to pull off the victory.
Prediction: Michigan State 20-17
Record: 8-1 (4-1 in Big 10)
November 15 – at Minnesota, Time-TV TBA
TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis is the final road destination for Ohio State on the 2014 calendar as the Buckeyes and Gophers meet for the first time since 2010. Minnesota was one of the great stories in college football last year, putting together an eight-win season despite head coach Jerry Kill’s need to take a leave of absence midway through the season to treat recurrent epilepsy.
Ultimately, what transpires between the Buckeyes and Spartans the previous week might have a spillover effect into this matchup. If Ohio State loses and perceives their national title hopes to have been dashed, they could be due for a hangover here. The problem for the Gophers is the fact that they have virtually no returning skill position starters on an offensive unit that was among the nation’s worst in passing last season.
Prediction (if OSU defeats MSU): Ohio State 38-10
Prediction (if OSU loses to MSU): Ohio State 30-24
Record: 9-1 (5-1 in Big 10)
November 22 – vs Indiana, Time-TV TBA
For the second year in a row, Ohio State welcomes the Hoosiers to Columbus. From Indiana’s perspective, that’s not a good thing considering they haven’t won a game at the Horseshoe since 1987. The quirkiness of the conference schedule associated with Maryland and Rutgers joining the Big Ten works to the benefit and detriment of essentially all teams. IU gets to host their archrival Purdue in consecutive years, but on the other side of the coin, they are forced to face the Buckeyes at their best on two straight occasions in Ohio Stadium.
Prediction: Ohio State 41-20
Record: 10-1 (6-1 in Big 10)
November 29 – vs Michigan, Time-TV TBA
The school pejoratively referred to as “That Team Up North” invades Buckeye country to close out the 2014 regular season. The Wolverines came agonizingly close to spoiling the Buckeyes BCS title hopes a week early in last year’s meeting at The Big House, salvaging an otherwise disappointing season. A failed two-point conversion attempt at the end of regulation preserved a 42-41 Ohio State victory, their ninth in the last ten meetings.
This year is make or break year for Michigan head coach Brady Hoke, coming off of a less than stellar 7-6 season defined on offense by shoddy running back play and constant uncertainty on the offensive line. The last thing Wolverine fans, alumni, boosters, etc. want to see is a déjà vu moment where a mediocre Michigan team is trying to ruin Ohio State’s national title hopes.
(You can find Michigan’s schedule analysis here: Games 1-6, Games 7-12)
Prediction: Ohio State 35-31
Record: 11-1 (7-1 in Big 10)
The most optimistic appraisal of the season would see the Buckeyes progressing to the Big Ten Championship, winning it, and getting a three or four seed in the College Football Playoff to likely face the SEC champion in the semifinal, where I think they come up short. At the very least, with a loss or two, they should get an invite as the Big Ten representative to one of the non-Playoff major bowls, most likely a second straight appearance in the Orange Bowl.
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