The first schedule analysis article has NC State coming out of the first half of 2014 with four wins, but they may be stuck on that total for a while. The Wolfpack’s slate in the second half consists entirely of ACC opponents, and they’re still looking for Coach Doeren’s first conference win. I could see the Wolfpack favored in one of these games: the home finale vs. Wake Forest. Other than that, a lot of things would have to fall in place for NC State to come up with another win in these six games.
I don’t think a bowl game is a crazy dream, but getting to five wins would be a successful season. A bowl game would be icing on the cake, and unexpected. If State manages 4-2 in early October, and pulls off an upset somewhere along the line, then they could be bowling in December. If the defense doesn’t improve this season, it could be zero ACC wins again.
For information purposes, all games are on Saturday, and no times have been given as of this writing. If ranked, the number reflects the USA Today Coaches Preseason Poll. The spread for the UNC game is from the Golden Nugget’s Games of the Year lines that came out this summer, highlighting their top games of each week and opening betting lines.
2014 NC State Wolfpack Schedule Analysis: Games 7-12
Game 7: vs. Boston College, October 11
Opening the second half against the Eagles won’t get NC State back on the winning path. Even with the loss of RB Andre Williams to the NFL, the Eagles will have too much offense for the Pack to combat. Pack goes to 4-3 (0-3 ACC).
Game 8: at Louisville, October 1
The new guys on the block will not be very welcoming to the Wolfpack. Taking the place of Maryland, Louisville will bring offensive firepower and old coach Bobby Petrino into the ACC Atlantic mix. After two road games this will be Louisville’s first home game in October, and being back in the friendly confines of home will help. I don’t think NC State can hang in this one either. Teddy Bridgewater may be gone to the Minnesota Vikings, but it won’t slow them down against the Pack defense. Pack drops to .500; 4-4 (0-4 ACC).
Game 9: at Syracuse, November 1
State gets a bye week before headed to New York. The Orange will have played Notre Dame, Florida State, Louisville, and Clemson in four of their previous five games. That’s a tough slate that the Wolfpack can potentially take advantage of. With extra prep time during the bye weel, and barring unforeseen injuries, I think State comes to play. In their final game out of the state of North Carolina, NC State will give Syracuse all it can handle. But, being battle-tested may help the Orange, and I think they can keep the Pack at bay. State drops under .500 to 4-5 (0-5 ACC).
Game 10: vs. Georgia Tech, November 8
With only four starters back on defense, Georgia Tech will rely on the triple-option to outscore opponents this season. Tech scored 30 or more points several times last season, and if NC State can put up some good offensive numbers against a young defense, we could have a shootout in Raleigh. That might be the story in this one. One big defensive stop could sway the momentum. I think GA Tech has enough offensive power and trickery to get a high scoring, double-digit win. NC State drops to 4-6 (0-6 ACC).
Game 11: vs. Wake Forest, November 15
If there’s a shot to get Coach Doeren his first ACC win, this is it. The Demon Deacons have a new coach for 2014 and are in the same phase as the Wolfpack. Neither team expects to compete for a conference title, but both believe they can improve on their previous seasons. The final home game of the year will be the perfect setting to get a conference win, and move within one game of being bowl eligible. I think State gets by Wake to move to 5-6 (1-6 ACC).
Game 12: at #23 North Carolina, November 29, Favorite: UNC -20
Both teams are starting 2014 with different expectations. NC State is trying to rebound after a dismal season, and UNC is being picked by some to win the ACC Coastal. Along with Miami and defending division champ Duke; the Tar Heels top the Coastal Division in preseason hype. The Wolfpack will travel 28 miles to Chapel Hill to face their Tobacco Road rivals with perhaps a bowl berth on the line. UNC could be playing for a spot opposite the Atlantic Division Champ in the ACC Title Game.
No matter what story lines or stakes there are in this rivalry, these teams want to beat each other. They’d play every week if they could, because bragging rights in North Carolina are like currency. Last season in Raleigh, the Pack played the Heels close, cutting the score to 21-19 late in the 3rd quarter. UNC would tack on a touchdown in the 4th to close out a 27-19 win.
There are no moral victories in football, especially in rivalries. NC State will not want to just keep it close in Chapel Hill. I think they will keep it close again this year, but I don’t think it will take a 4th quarter touchdown to seal it. I think it’s close at the half; UNC pulls away and wins by two touchdowns.
A season-ending loss would leave the Wolfpack at 5-7 overall with an ACC record of 1-7. This would be an improvement over the goose egg they put up in conference last season, but still short of a bowl game. NC State may put up a good first half, but the second may keep them in the cellar of the ACC again this year.
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