As we approach the dawn of the Premier League season there seems to be a trend in season previews when it comes to Arsenal Football Club. Most previews can be summarized something like this: “Having finally broken the bank open to buy Mesut Ozil last season, Arsenal continued their spending this summer, bringing in Alexis Sanchez, Mathieu Debuchy, and Calum Chambers thus far. While Arsenal appear set to contend for the title, they will probably suffer their inevitable end of season collapse, and finish 4th yet again.”
The narrative of the Arsenal late season collapse is a popular one. Journalists seem to particularly enjoy writing about how Arsenal will fade down the stretch to finish 4th year in and year out. However, there’s a problem with this narrative. True, Arsenal do seem to have a recent habit of finishing 4th. They’ve qualified for the Champions League every year since Arsene Wenger took charge, while not being serious contenders for the title in recent years. That said, the narrative of the Arsenal late season collapse just simply isn’t true. Despite all the attention given to this narrative, Arsenal do not tend to collapse as the season goes on.
Myth of Arsenal’s Late Season Collapse
A Glance at the Table
For proof, here’s a glance at Arsenal’s last 5 seasons.
2013/2014 – Arsenal did suffer a mid-season slide, which coincided with a vicious rash of injuries which saw almost every key player miss time. In this period, they slide from 1st at the end of December to 5th place after 33 matches. However, form turned as health returned, and Arsenal won their last 5 matches in the league to finish 4th, and topped it all off with an FA Cup trophy. Yes, there was a mid-season dip, but when it counted at the end, the team actually stepped up their play.
2012/2013 – Sitting in 6th place after 24 matches, 4 points out of 4th, and having suffered a difficult loss to rival Spurs and elimination from Champions League in a short period, things looked bleak. It appeared that Arsenal’s run of consecutive UCL qualifications may be over. Then, Arsenal won 11, drew 2, and lost only 1, earning 35 points in their final 14 matches, best in the Premier League by 5 points over that period. So much for collapse. More like the opposite.
2011/2012 –After 24 matches Arsenal sat in 6th place, 10 points out of 3rd place, where they would eventually finish. This time Arsenal won 9, drew 3, and lost 2 of their last 14, earning 30 points to vault into 3rd place, making up a 10 point gap.
2010/2011 – In the last 5 seasons this was the one year where they actually did have a bit of a collapse to end the season. After 33 matches played Arsenal sat tied for 2nd, just 6 points out of first. Their last 5 matches included only 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses as they slumped to 4th, 12 points off the top.
2009/2010 – This season was the marker of consistency. After ending November in 4th place, Arsenal moved up to 3rd by the end of December and ended every month thereafter in 3rd place, where they also finished the season.
So why the narrative?
There are two explanations that seem most likely as to why this narrative is so popular among sports journalists. First, it’s easy and it’s popular. Arsenal have finished 4th so frequently that it’s become almost a joke, and the idea that Arsenal should finish higher than 4th may lead some to buy into the narrative. For those looking for a quick piece to write without much work, the annual collapse of Arsenal is easy bait.
Second, it may have something to do with the fact that Arsenal have tended to bow out of the Champions League, FA Cup, and contention for the title (whether a collapse or simply running out of time) around the same time in recent seasons.
Take the 2012/2013 season for example: From February 16 – March 13 Arsenal lost to Blackburn in the FA Cup, lost their round of 16 tie with Bayern Munich, and fell to Spurs in what appeared to be a death blow to their season. In less than a month they were eliminated from two Cup competitions and for all practical purposes eliminated from Premier League contention. Despite turning in a strong closing to finish top 4 and above Spurs, it gives the perception of collapse.
The fact that Arsenal are a club that SHOULD be contending for the EPL title every year, yet don’t, would be fair reason to discuss end of season struggles. It would make plenty of sense to criticize the fact that while Arsenal should be fighting for 1st come the end of the season, they’re routinely fight for 4th. Unfortunately, that doesn’t tend to be the story, and with too many leaning back on the assumption that Arsenal collapses at the end.
If you want to criticize Arsenal, by all means, the club has earned plenty of it, and even this Arsenal supporter will dish it out. But please, if you’re going to criticize, do your homework and make sure you’re criticizing the right thing.
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