For teams on the bowl bubble, six is a lucky number. It’s that threshold in terms of wins that gets you into college football’s postseason. Miss it by one or more and you’re sitting on the sidelines while other teams get a few extra weeks of practice, television exposure, and a payout that can stretch into the millions of dollars even for lower level bowls.
To say that it’s been a challenge for the Indiana football program to reach this win total over the past two decades or so is a gross understatement. Since 1993, the Hoosiers have been bowl-eligible three times and played in just two bowls: the 1993 Independence Bowl and 2007 Insight Bowl. In his fourth year as head coach, Kevin Wilson has the team trending in the right direction as their win total has improved in each of his three previous seasons.
The Hoosiers finished a victory short of making a bowl in 2013, with the defensive issues I’ve discussed, costing them dearly in two close losses to Navy (41-35) and Minnesota (42-39). With some new names on the defensive coaching staff and an added year of experience for the returning personnel, the mentality amongst the team and fans has to be “bowl game or bust.”
What does the schedule have to say about Indiana’s prospects for a bowl in 2014? With the Big Ten at 14 schools and the Hoosiers in a division that includes Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State, conference victories will come at a premium. It will be of utmost importance to get vital out-of-conference wins against teams they’re favored against.
With that in mind, I’ve put together a list of six must-win games for Indiana that they need this year if they want to have any shot of extending their season past November. I’ve organized it by how probable I think a victory is, starting with the easiest.
August 30th – Indiana State
The Hoosiers open the season at home with clearly their easiest opponent. Last year, they put up 73 on the Sycamores and even had the ball in the red zone late before calling off the dogs and taking a knee. A win is obviously expected here, but I’ll be looking to see how convincing the defensive unit is against this FCS opponent. They gave up 35 in last season’s meeting, which was clearly a harbinger of things to come on that side of the ball.
October 4th – North Texas
Indiana’s first true road game of the Kevin Wilson era back in 2011 was a trip to Denton to christen North Texas’ brand new stadium. It did not go well, as the Mean Green took a 24-0 lead into the 4th quarter. Despite a valiant comeback to cut the deficit to 3, the Hoosiers fell 24-21 en route to a lackluster 1-11 campaign. A home victory on the way to a bowl berth three years later would be sweet revenge.
November 29th – Purdue
The annual Old Oaken Bucket showdown with the Boilermakers comes to Bloomington for the second consecutive year, a beneficial quirk in the schedule associated with Maryland and Rutgers becoming part of the conference this year. Purdue should still be in rebuilding mode after a 1-11 season in coach Darrell Hazell’s inaugural campaign. Indiana had one of their best games of the 2013 season in a dominant 56-36 performance, but quarterback Danny Etling should be much improved for the Boilers going into this year’s season finale.
November 15th – Rutgers
Speaking of those new conference foes, a long biannual road trip to New Jersey awaits the Hoosiers now that Rutgers joins them in the Big Ten East Division. They travel to Piscataway late in the season and if Indiana has only four wins going into this game, it becomes an absolute must-win road contest. After they play the Scarlet Knights, only two games remain, including a date at the Horseshoe against national title contender Ohio State the following week.
September 27th – Maryland
Maryland travels to Memorial Stadium for their first-ever conference game in late September. It would be a massive momentum boost for Indiana going into league play to defend home field and take down the Terps. A win here, coupled with three out of four in non-conference play, would make IU 4-1 to start the season and in much better shape going into the rough and tumble Big Ten slate.
On a side note, this could be the most aesthetically over-the-top game of the year in the Big Ten when it comes to the uniform combinations you can expect to see from each team. Both schools have gone the Oregon route recently in unveiling different wardrobe schemes on a weekly basis.
September 13th – Bowling Green
An out-of-conference matchup with a MAC opponent may not seem like much, but make no mistake, this is the defining game of the year for Indiana. These two teams met in Bloomington last year, with IU turning in perhaps their best defensive performance of the season in a 42-10 drubbing of the eventual MAC Champions.
This time around, the Hoosiers make the roughly 250-mile journey up to northwest Ohio to take on a team expected to repeat as front-runners of the MAC. The game is sandwiched in between a bye the previous week and a massively challenging road test against defending SEC East champions Missouri the following week. I’m sure that when IU initially scheduled these two teams a few years back, they weren’t expecting the Falcons and Tigers to become such juggernauts in their respective conferences in such a short time.
If Indiana can escape Doyt Perry Stadium with a valuable road victory over a capable, payback-minded Falcons team, it could serve as a watershed moment early on in the season that continues the trend of improving in the win column each year during the Kevin Wilson era. Only in 2014, that improvement will translate into bowl eligibility and the associated positives from a program-building standpoint that come from such an achievement.
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