We’ve all been there. You’re about to make your selection and the player you love is still on the board. The person picking immediately before you seems indecisive and uses the entire clock to make their pick. Just before time runs out he settles on your guy! In a panic, you click one of the ten tabs opened to fantasy football sites in your web browser and happen to see Trent Richardson has the easiest schedule for running backs during the 2014 season and decide to draft him even though the experts seem to think he shouldn’t have gone quite so high. What do they know? He has the most favorable schedule of any running back in the NFL according to fantasy point totals against defenses from the 2013 NFL season. Or so you thought…
Any prideful fantasy football player does their research and we’ve all seen the strength of schedule rankings for each position. Most of these rankings are based solely on fantasy performance against defenses from the previous season. For instance, the Cowboys and Bears allowed the most fantasy points per game last year to running backs 24.59 and 24.44 respectively (standard scoring). The Colts play the Cowboys during Week 16 which is the week of the fantasy championship in most leagues. Your pick of Trent Richardson is looking better and better.
Did you know the Cowboys have a new defensive coordinator and signed four defensive linemen as free agents in the offseason including former Pro Bowler Henry Melton and former first-round pick Amobi Okoye? They also acquired former first-round pick Rolando McClain to fill in at linebacker given Sean Lee’s season ending injury. Will these changes allow the Cowboys to turn their fortunes around against opposing running backs?
The purpose of this article isn’t to plug Trent Richardson or claim the Cowboys are going to be stalwarts against the run this year; it’s to have you call into question strength of schedule rankings when you look at them. Check this out:
Running Back Strength of Schedule
Best Defenses For Running Backs to Face in 2012 (ranked by fantasy points allowed to RB per game)
- Saints
- Bills
- Titans
- Jaguars
- Cowboys
- Raiders
- Chiefs
- Colts
- Jets
- Falcons
Best Defenses For Running Backs to Face in 2013 (ranked by fantasy points allowed to RB per game)
- Cowboys
- Bears
- Titans
- Redskins
- Raiders
- Rams
- Vikings
- Packers
- Falcons
- Jaguars
Only five of the ten best teams for running backs to face in 2012 remained among the best for them to face in 2013. In fact, the Saints were the best for running backs to face in 2012 but one of the ten toughest for them to face in 2013. The Jets also went from among the ten best for running backs in 2012 to the ten worst in 2013.
Moreover, had you used strength of schedule rankings based on 2012 fantasy points too strictly to draft your running backs, you likely would have avoided running backs from the NFC North. Each team in the division finished 2012 in the tougher half of the league for running backs to get points against. In fact, the Vikings, Lions and Bears were all among the ten toughest for 2012 running backs to score fantasy points against. By the time 2013 finished, three of these teams ended up among the defenses fantasy running backs were most productive against.
Rather than using rankings based solely on last season’s numbers to determine which running backs have the most favorable schedules, consider coaching changes, free agent losses and additions and players acquired through the draft to augment the rankings before making your picks.
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