With six weeks left until the season begins, fantasy football build up is in full swing, both here on Last Word on Sports and beyond. With many drafts taking place in the next fortnight, making sure you know who is being over and under drafted is an easy way of getting an upper hand on your opponent. Using my rankings and average draft position (ADP Analysis) data from ESPN.com, I’ve found which players are currently being over and under drafted, so that you don’t make the same mistakes when picking your team.
Overdrafted
1) Ben Tate, Cleveland Browns
My Ranking- 34, ADP Ranking- 17, Average round taken in a 10 team league- 4
After signing a relatively large deal with Cleveland in free agency, many expect Ben Tate to be their starter and to finally prove why Houston traded up to take him in the second round of the 2010 draft. As a result, he is currently being taken as a low-mid RB2 in 10 team leagues. But there are major question marks surrounding Tate which mean this is a risky proposition.
Firstly, Tate isn’t even guaranteed to be the Browns starting runner. Terrance West handled most of the starting RB reps at the recent minicamp; and has been tipped by many, including NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah, to become the team starter. But even if Tate does start opening day, there are still questions. He has a long history of injuries, from not playing a single game in his first year due to a broken ankle to being put on IR last year after his fifth cracked rib. The Browns also have the fifth toughest schedule in terms of fantasy points for RBs, which won’t make things easier. Although he has the potential be a valuable asset, the risks surrounding him mean he is currently being draft too high.
2) Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens
My Ranking- 40, ADP Ranking- 23, Average round taken in a 10 team league- 6
It’s very hard to argue that Ray Rice had anything short of an atrocious year in 2013. Only 4 times did he surpass 50 yards last season, and he averaged 3.1 YPC. Yet he is still being taken as an RB2 in 12 team leagues. This is far too high for a player coming off an awful season who can’t play in the first two games (assuming he regains the starting job after that). Although Rice has some value as a low RB3/ high RB4, there is simply too much risk involved to consider taking him as early as he is now.
3) Knowshon Moreno, Miami Dolphins
My Ranking- 65, ADP Ranking-32, Average round taken in a 10 team league- 9
I do not understand how Moreno is considered anything close to a flex starter, as his ADP would suggest. He is currently recovering from arthroscopic knee surgery, and will therefore miss the start of training camp. Considering many believed Moreno would need to have a fantastic training camp if he was to start for the Dolphins, after disappointing in OTAs and turning up overweight; it may now be a question of whether he makes the team, rather than if he starts.
This may surprise many after his great year, but last year was an anomaly and follows a pattern of RBs having success with Peyton Manning. The lack of teams going after him in free agency says a lot about the confidence many in the league have in the former Georgia star. Unless things change greatly, there is no reason to look at Moreno in your fantasy drafts.
Underdrafted
1) Andre Ellington, Arizona Cardinals
My Ranking- 9, ADP Ranking- 20, Average round taken in a 10 team league-5
One of the most important things to look for in a top fantasy running back is a lack of competition for carries. This is true for Andre Ellington, who faces no risk of losing carries to Stepfan Taylor. This makes him an extremely promising prospect for fantasy owners, following a rookie season where he put up the same number of fantasy points as teammate Rashard Mendenhall despite having 45% less runs. Considering he has top-10 potential, he offers great value in his current position as a borderline RB2/flex in 10 team leagues.
2) Bishop Sankey, Tennessee Titans
My Ranking- 14, ADP Ranking- 29, Average round taken in a 10 team league-8
One of the most important things to look for in a top fantasy running back is a lack of competition for carries. This is true for Bishop, who faces no risk of losing carries to Shonn Green. The rookie clearly has the support of the front office, after he was the first RB taken in the 2014. As a result, he should see quite a lot of opportunities from the off, especially as the team ranked 8th in rush % last year. Confidence can also be taken by Sankey’s pre-draft measurable, which produced an incredible agility score (the same metric which led PFF’s Shawn Siegele to rank Zac Stacy as his number 2 rookie RB last year). If any rookie runner is worth starting week one this year, it’s Bishop Sankey.
3) Toby Gerhart, Jacksonville Jaguars
My Ranking- 17, ADP Ranking- 30, Average round taken in a 10 team league-9
One of the most important things too look for in a top fantasy running back is a lack of competition for carries [yes, this pattern is deliberate]. This is true for Toby Gerhart, who faces no risk of losing carries to anyone, if the words of Jaguars OC Jedd Fisch are anything to go by. After being stuck behind Adrian Peterson in Minnesota, Gerhart finally has the chance to prove he deserves to be a starting running back in the NFL, and build upon his promising 4.7 career YPC. Not only should he get lots of carries, but his physical style means he should still get lots of use around the goal line too. Another player who should produce far more than his current ADP would suggest, Gerhart is a steal as the 30th ranked RB.
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