Remember that Texans team that went 12-4 two years ago? Newer and younger faces are slowly replacing members of that team. The Texans are retooling their roster. QB Matt Schaub was sent to Oakland this offseason, TE Owen Daniels is now in Baltimore and WR Andre Johnson is rumored to want to be traded. Even young RB and leading rushing in 2013 Ben Tate was not resigned.
Yet, the Texans should be much improved this year, and made a great choice in the 2014 NFL draft by selecting DE Jadaveon Clowney #1 overall. However, he won’t be impacting the offensive side of the ball (as far as we know). This team struggled last year to put points on the board last season, as they averaged 17.2 points per game, good for 31st in the league. The team did put up lots of yardage however (347.2 yards per game, good for 11th best), but this effort was mostly due to the team trailing in many football games. The team only won two games, and fired Head Coach Gary Kubiak and replaced him with Bill O’Brien from Penn State. The offense should be much improved this year without Matt Schaub at the helm, so there is upside for the roster in 2014. The team will benefit from a very easy schedule this season, and I could see O’Brien coaching this roster to an 8-8 finish and helping stabilize the offense.
Houston Texans Fantasy Outlook
Quarterback
New coach Bill O’Brien is known for being great with QB’s ever since his days in New England with Tom Brady. However, he better on his A-game this year, as Houston doesn’t have a solid QB on their team. Houston shocked many by passed on taking a QB in the first three rounds of the draft. They finally took QB Tom Savage out of Pittsburg in the fourth round, and he should see the field at some point this season. Savage has a strong arm, and although he started for only one college season, he flashed potential. He fits nicely into O’Brien’s offense, and could end up being Houston’s long-term QB if O’Brien develops him correctly.
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is the scheduled starter for week 1, but don’t expect great numbers from him. He doesn’t have many talented options around him, and he has proven that he isn’t a great starter in the league in both Buffalo and Tennessee. Fitzpatrick threw for 2454 yards, 14 TD’s and 12 INT’s last season in Tennessee while filling in for Jake Locker. He was not great, and the only reason he is starting in Houston is because the Texans know he is better than either Savage or Case Keenum right now. Don’t draft Fitzpatrick unless you are in a very deep league and you need a second QB.
Running back
Houston has been dependent on the running game to set up the pass for many years under Kubiak, and this trend should continue under O’Brien. Houston will return star RB Arian Foster from back surgery. Foster ran for 542 yards and 1 TD on in 6 games last season. In the six that he played, he produced four double digit point games. Foster has been a featured part of Houston’s offense for multiple seasons now, and this trend will continue in 2014. He is the best offensive weapon on the team, and should see plenty of touches in both the running and passing game. He is fragile, and his back surgery may slow him a little, but Foster could easily return to star form and have a great year.
The offensive line figures to be better as well. The line played well last year, and the team added the best guard in the draft in Xavier Su’a-Filo from UCLA. Foster can turn small holes into big gains, and the line should help give Foster running room and protect the QB.
If Foster were to go down, the backup situation is a little scary. The team let leading rusher Ben Tate leave in free agency, and instead signed RB Andre Brown to backup Foster. Brown is very injury prone, but is effective when healthy. He will see carries, and is worth being on your roster if Foster were to go down. Overall, Houston’s running game should produce plenty of points, and Foster should finish in the top 10 backs.
Wide Receiver
Last season, only two receivers topped 300 yards on the Texans: Andre Johnson and rookie DeAndre Hopkins. This was due to horrible QB play, so although no other receiver may step up for Houston, Hopkins and Johnson should have better years. Johnson is currently not happy with both his contract and the fact that Houston isn’t positioned to make the playoffs this year, so has been rumored to want a trade. If Johnson were to play elsewhere, his value would rise, but he will most likely play the 2014 season in Houston. He saw 181 targets last year, and had 1407 yards and 5 TD’s. Johnson had all of his touchdowns in a span of two weeks, as he had 3 against Indianapolis in a monster game (229 yards, 3 TD’s) and two the following week against Arizona (weeks 9 and 10). Otherwise, Johnson’s stats were mediocre for the rest of the season. I expect Johnson to have around 1400 yards again, and increase his TD total from 5 to around 8. He is borderline WR1/WR2.
However, I don’t think he will see as many targets because of the emergence of DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins flashed signs of potential last year, but saw half the targets that Johnson did. Hopkins had 802 yards and 2 TD’s last year, and is primed to surpass 1000 yards and 5-6 TD’s in 2014. Receivers grow a lot from year one to year two, and with a better QB under center, Hopkins should benefit. No other receiver on this roster has the talent to make a fantasy impact, so look for Johnson and Hopkins to provide most of the scoring.
Tight End
The new offense in Houston will feature many two-TE sets, and Houston has a couple talented young tight ends. The first is Ryan Griffin, a second-year player out of UConn who played well when both Owen Daniels and Garrett Graham were injured in December. Griffin had two 6 point games and a 4 point game to end the season, but was more valuable in the actual game than in fantasy terms. Griffin runs routes well, and should see plenty of time this season. The second TE on the roster is as mentioned above, Garrett Graham.Graham had a decent year last season, but his weekly scoring often relied on whether he scored a TD. Graham was injured at the end of the year, but is fully healthy and is ready for the start of the year. However, he will be splitting time more with other TE’s this year, so don’t expect as good of stats as last season. The third TE on the roster is rookie C.J. Fiedorowicz. This young man is a good athlete, and should help the passing game and fit into O’Brien’s offense perfectly. He could easily surprise us and play more than we expect, but for right now, he is listed as the TE3 on the depth chart.
However, the problem with all three of these guys is that they will share targets. As a result, I don’t expect one individual to break out and post big numbers. I could see all of them finishing in the top 20-25, and maybe one cracking the top 15, but overall I would stay away from Houston TE’s unless you want to draft a back up. If so, take Griffin.
Conclusion
Overall, Houston should be improved this season, and multiple guys should step up, including Arian Foster and Andre Johnson. There is no fantasy star on this roster outside of the possibility of Foster returning to pre-injury form, but there are multiple players that should score points and are worthy of roster spots.
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