We’re back to the Rookie of the Year race this week. For last week’s Cy Young review, click here. For the MVP review the week before, click here. Next week we’ll return to the MVP race. All stats are as of June 19th. The number in brackets represents a player’s ranking on the last set of rankings.
Two weeks ago, the American League Rookie of the Year race was an exciting two-horse race between budding superstars. Unfortunately, Masahiro Tanaka’s elbow injury, while not removing him from contention entirely, has allowed Jose Abreu to build up a sizable lead.
The race is finally starting to shape up in the NL as Mets pitcher Jacob deGrom is has been lights-out in recent weeks and Billy Hamilton has grown into the player the Reds hoped he’d be.
AL – Abreu climbing to the top
1. (2.) Jose Abreu, 1B, CWS: .292/.344/.631, 29 HR, 73 RBI, 50 R
In 39 games since returning the disabled list on June 2nd, Abreu has hit .329/.380/.671 with 14 homers and 31 RBI. While he was certainly no slouch before, that stretch has raised his BA and OBP to the point where he is now a legitimate MVP contender, on top of being the clear Rookie of the Year favorite. He needs to hit 21 homers in the White Sox final 65 games to break Mark McGwire’s rookie record of 49 home runs, set in 1987. I wouldn’t bet against him.
2. (1.) Masahiro Tanaka, SP, NYY: 12-4, 2.51 ERA, 135 K, 129.1 IP, 1.01 WHIP
Last week I had Tanaka removed entirely from my Cy Young rankings, as his the 6-to-8 week best-case-scenario on his elbow injury would ruin his chances at that award. With the Rookie of the Year award, however, that is not necessarily the case. Tanaka has made 18 starts and thrown 129.1 innings. To use a recent comparison, Rays pitcher Chris Archer finished third in last year’s voting, despite throwing just 128.2 innings. Given how utterly dominant Tanaka has been, and the possibility that he could return for a few more starts in September, he cannot be discounted entirely.
3. (3.) George Springer, RF, HOU: .230/.337/.460, 19 HR, 50 RBI, 44 R
George Springer has all the potential in the world, if he could just fill in the gaping holes in his swing. His 19 homers in 77 games equates to 40 bombs over a full 162-game season, and he has shown patience at the plate, as evidenced by the 100-point gap between his BA and OBP. Even his speed has begun to translate to the majors, as he’s stolen four bases over the last two weeks after swiping just one in his first 63 games. The only thing holding him back from superstardom are his league-leading 114 strikeouts. That is a 240 K pace over 162 games, seven strikeouts more than the single-season record set my Mark Reynolds in 2009.
4. Yordano Ventura, SP, KC: 7-7, 3.22 ERA, 88 K, 103.1 IP, 1.26 WHIP
Last Sunday, Ventura picked up the win against the Tigers in the first relief appearance of his career, striking out three batters in 1.2 innings. Overall, Ventura has been everything the Royals could have hoped, a reliable young starter showing occasional flashes of brilliance. Neither his 7.7 K/9 or 2.7 BB/9 are particularly noteworthy on their own, but combined they are more than acceptable and for a 23-year-old fireballer whose fastball averages a major league best 96.8 mph.
5. (-) Brock Holt, 3B/RF, BOS: .326/.371/.460, 3 HR, 22 RBI, 37 R
A super-utility man, Brock Holt has played every position except pitcher and catcher for the Red Sox this season. Originally called up to play third base for the struggling Will Middlebrooks, Holt has been pushed to the outfield since early June by the re-signing of shortstop Stephen Drew. Regardless of his position, the 26-year-old has done nothing but hit since his call-up, and has shown no signs of slowing down.
Off the list –
(5.) Roenis Elias
NL – Jacob deGrom Climbing
1. (1.) Billy Hamilton, CF, CIN: .282/.316/.418, 5 HR, 38 RBI, 47 R, 38 SB
Posting a .327/.348/.500 batting line with 14 stolen bases in the month of June has cemented Billy Hamilton’s claim as the National League’s best rookie. Though doubtless a raw player, as shown by his low OBP and league leading 15 failed stolen base attempts, Hamilton’s blinding speed, stellar defense and completely unexpected power have shaped him into a very good player with plenty of room to grow.
2. (3.) Jacob deGrom, SP, NYM: 3-5, 3.18 ERA, 72 K, 73.2 IP, 1.33 WHIP
Three weeks ago, Jacob deGrom was having a league average season, good enough for consideration in a weak NL rookie field. His last three starts, however, have seen deGrom go 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 27 Ks in 19 innings. He now has two 11 strikeout games on the season and an 8.8 K/9 ratio. He’s 26 years old and has never been considered a big prospect, but with a few more big starts he could challenge Hamilton for this award.
3. (2.) Chris Owings, SS, ARI: .277/.313/.458, 6 HR, 21 RBI, 26 R, 7 SB
Owings has not played since Jun 25th, when a shoulder injury forced him to the DL. Having made little progress and with no timetable for his return, his job at shortstop is in serious jeopardy, to say nothing of his contention for this award. Still, prior to his injury, Owings had been an above-average shortstop on both sides of the field, and had gone 7-for-7 on the basepaths. he no longer looks to be a threat to Billy Hamilton, but if he comes back soon and keep his job, he cannot be discounted entirely.
4. (-) Kolten Wong, 2B, STL: .247/.302/.400, 6 HR, 24 RBI, 24 R, 12 SB
Demoted at the end of April, Wong has his .261/.318/.479 with six homers and nine stolen bases since his return on May 16th. While such numbers hardly pop off the page, they are about league average for his position and, when combined with his good glovework and 92% stolen base percentage, make Wong a more-than-adequate major league second baseman. An acceptable performance and weak competition have made Wong one of the best rookies in the National League so far.
5. (-) Eric Campbell, Util, NYM: .340/.386/.447, 1 HR, 10 RBI, 11 R
Like Brock Holt, Campbell can play any position and has been hitting well since his mid-May call-up. However, unlike Brock Holt, Campbell’s high batting average has been pretty well empty as his counting stats leave plenty to be desired. Campbell did hit .314 with a .435 OBP in 120 games at AAA last season, but did so in the Pacific Coast League, one which is notorious for inflated hitting numbers. Still, a .340 average over 42 games is far better than anything the rest of the NL rookie crop has produced, however unsustainable it may seem.
Off the list –
(4.) Neil Ramirez
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