The whole state of Florida has struggled with sports lately: neither the Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars nor Tampa Bay Buccaneers had great NFL seasons last year; the Miami Heat just lost LeBron James, and the Orlando Magic have not been relevant since Dwight Howard left. In baseball, the Tampa Bay Rays have been one of the more disappointing teams in baseball, while the Miami Marlins can’t seem to get fans in their stadium, even when they are close to .500. Heck, even the Florida Gators had one of their worst seasons in school history last year (although the basketball had a great year). Florida State football will just have to continue dominating, as they will attempt to repeat as champions in the new playoff system.
However, Florida is a humid state, and the droughts are going to end. With that in mind, don’t look at the Jacksonville Jaguars as the savior. Jacksonville really struggled last year, as they were the worst team in football (somehow went 4-12), even though they didn’t get the first pick. In fact, any time one of your guys was playing against this defense last year, illegal fireworks went off in your house like the Fourth of July in New York City.
This team hit rock bottom last year: they were 31st in yards per game (293.8) and dead last in points scored per game (15.4). So although they are trending up, it isn’t saying that much. Yet we have to give Gus Bradley credit, as he is a good head coach, and this team had a solid 2014 draft that added multiple potential impact players down the line. With many new players, this will be a rebuilding year, but there may still be some production to be found.
Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Outlook
Quarterbacks
Wait… Am I missing a college in Florida that had a great year? Yes, UCF had a fantastic year, beating Baylor in the Fiesta Bowl led by star QB Blake Bortles. Guess who Jacksonville took with the third pick? Bortles. He is their future, yet he isn’t their present. Jacksonville insists that the mistake they made with Gabbert was playing him too early, so Chad Henne is currently listed as the starter for week 1 over Bortles. The reason Gabbert played bad was because he wasn’t worthy of a top 10 pick, and Bortles wasn’t either in many analysts’ minds. However, he is out to prove them wrong.
Chad Henne has had his moments with Jacksonville (3241 passing yards), but doesn’t deserve to be drafted. The only reason to take a Jacksonville QB is that they will be behind in games, so there will be lots of pass attempts, as shown by their 37 attempts per game last year, but this is a horrible reason. Jacksonville only threw 16 TD’s last year, so I would stay away from either QB here as the scoring will be minimal. I expect to see Bortles on the field as the season progresses, and he may have some magic in him, but until then, don’t pick up any of these guys unless you want Bortles for a dynasty league.
Running backs
Running back is the most intriguing position on this roster. The team let Maurice Jones-Drew walk after a disappointing last season, and signed Minnesota Vikings’ backup Toby Gerhart to replace him. Gerhart had a great collegiate career at Stanford, but hasn’t seen much playing time due to playing behind star Adrian Peterson. Gerhart’s stats show he is one of the best backs after contact, as he is a tough physical runner that should help take some pressure off of the Jaguar’s QBs.
Jacksonville was 31st in rushing yards last year (1260), and had a meager 7 TDs. This was due to the fact that the line was awful last year. They let up 50 sacks last year, good for 2nd best in the league. Zane Beadles, a really good guard from Denver, was signed to help bolster the line and the team used a third round pick on guard Brandon Linder, so some improvement should come. I could see Gerhart as a solid flex option this year, as he should post double digit TDs. He could wind up as a lower end RB2 option, but don’t expect anything too much. His backup, Jordan Todman, isn’t much of a threat, so this is not someone you should look at picking up unless Gerhart gets injured.
Gerhart’s current ADP on ESPN is 76, but I would grab him anywhere between the 60th and 80th pick.
Wide Receivers
Poor quarterback play comes with poor receiving play, and the Jaguars struggled with both last year. Top receiver Justin Blackmon has struggled with discipline issues ever since being drafted and is currently suspended indefinitely. Don’t draft him unless you can know his suspension will be removed (very unlikely). Cecil Shorts is currently the WR1 in Jacksonville, but he is struggling in that role. He only had 777 yards and 3 TDs last season as the WR1, so don’t expect much production. If Blackmon were playing, Shorts would thrive because defenses would stop focusing him. Shorts had 66 receptions on 125 targets. Yes, that is barely over 50%.
The problem is that Jacksonville didn’t and still doesn’t have much else. Ace Sanders is a mediocre slot, as he 484 yards on 51 receptions last season. However, there are two new rookies that should help with passing game. Both were drafted in the second round, and the first is WR Marqise Lee out of USC. Lee’s name was floating around in the first round, so to get him in the second round is a steal. I watched Lee play in college, and he was unstoppable two years ago. He is a talent, and if coached right he could be a great receiver in a couple of years. Lee has the most upside out of any receiver on the team, and I could see him being a hot pick up after the first few weeks.
The second is WR Allen Robinson out of Penn State. Robinson is a big target with good hands, and he has proved that he is capable of seeing lots of targets. I don’t think he will make a big impact this year, but in a couple of years he will be a solid player.
Tight end
I would not bother drafting Mercedes Lewis this year. He has underachieved expectations the past few seasons, and I don’t think anything special will happen here. If the receivers are struggling to produce, don’t bother with the tight end. Unless Bortles or Henne have magical years, Lewis is not worth being a back up tight end. He had less than 400 yards receiving last year, so don’t expect anything.
Conclusion
Jacksonville doesn’t have many options, as they have one of the worst offenses and will not produce many fantasy points. Blake Bortles may be worth a late pick in a dynasty league, and the same can be said about Marqise Lee, but other than that I wouldn’t bother drafting anyone here. Gerhart may have a decent year, but that is about it.
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