Just over half-way through the 2014 MLS season the results map for FC Dallas looks eerily familiar. In 2013 FC Dallas got off to a scorching start to the season and sat comfortably atop the Western Conference standings through the early stages of the season. However, beginning with their 14th game of the season, FCD fell apart, winning only 3 of their last 21 games and slumping to an 8th place finish in the Western Conference.
The 2014 season began much the same. Through seven games the team had 16 points, the exact total they began with in 2013, and again sat atop the Western Conference. Within a few games though, playmaker Mauro Diaz, who had unquestionably been FCD’s best player up to that point, went down with a long-term injury and the collapse of last season seemed destined to repeat itself.
Following their blistering start, FCD went through an 8-match winless streak in which they lost 6 and drew 2. While maybe not a shock, a rash of injuries highlighted by the previously mentioned loss of Diaz, the stretch was disappointing nonetheless.
Following last season’s collapse the team parted ways with longtime coach Schellas Hyndman and brought in club legend Oscar Pareja to take the reins. After leading a young Colorado Rapids team to a surprise playoff run last year, the club obviously hoped that Pareja could solve the problems that led to last season’s collapse.
Statistically, there doesn’t appear to be a significant difference in Dallas’ play in from their early season success to their recent struggles, though a few things do stand out:
- In their first seven games they averaged 52% of possession; in their eight match winless streak they only had 48%, not a huge difference, but perhaps significant.
- Goals conceded jumped from 1.4 per game in the first seven games to 1.75.
- Most significantly, goals scored fell from 2.4 goals per game to 0.75 per game.
I don’t think the goals scored and conceded are unrelated. In the first seven games, Mauro Diaz created 18 of Dallas’ 56 goal scoring chances (per Squawka stats), accounting for 32% of Dallas’ chances. That’s a high reliance on a single chance creator. By comparison, below is the share of chances created by MLS assist leaders:
- Diego Valeri (Portland) 26% of team’s chances
- Fabian Espindola (DC United) 27%
- Cristian Maidana (Philadelphia) 19%
- Lloyd Sam (NYRB) 22%
- Pedro Morales (Vancouver) 26%
Clearly losing Diaz was a blow to the Dallas attack. However, when a team loses a playmaker of the quality of Diaz it also allows the opposition to press more in the attack without fearing the counter-attack. Without Diaz to slice through opposition defenses, opposing teams no longer feared the Dallas attack, and could press their own attack.
Crucially, Diaz has also drawn 2.8 fouls per game this season. FC Dallas have scored 53% of their goals this season on set-pieces. So essentially, drawing 2.8 fouls per game is the same as creating nearly three chances per game. While fouls obviously don’t exactly translate to chances, if the 2.8 fouls are counted as chances, Diaz is creating 5.2 chances per game, an astounding number, especially when it is suddenly removed from the lineup.
That said, the 2014 season may not be all doom and gloom for FC Dallas. In fact, the break that MLS took for the 2014 World Cup may have saved Dallas’ season. With 17 days between games as the league took a break for the group stage, Dallas had time to regroup and get healthy, and it is showing. After going into the break with four points from two games, the team has come out of the break with a draw against a good Columbus team in difficult conditions, and a 2-1 win against an improving Philadelphia Union in a game which saw Diaz make his return as a substitute.
Now that the defense is healthy and Diaz is back, the next few weeks are crucial for FC Dallas. Good results in their next few games could see the season turned around and set the team up for an exciting playoff push. However, a couple of bad results could see the fall continue, and concerns of a repeat of last season only substantiated.
Aside from the return of Mauro Diaz, the US Open Cup, and Dallas’ no quit attitude make me believe they’ll at least contend for the playoffs last year.
Last year when the results started to go against them the team quit. You could see it happening right on the field. This year has been different. Even during their bad stretch, the team battled every game. Now that they’re healthy, that attitude is turning close losses into wins.
Not only that, but Dallas is also in the US Open Cup semi-finals, and a good run in the Cup seems to have given the team a boost of confidence, and Diaz scoring in last week’s quarterfinal win can only increase that feeling.
If Mauro Diaz can return to the form he was in pre-injury Dallas should have no trouble contending for and making the MLS playoffs.
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