Every league has that guy who knows nothing about fantasy football, yet still pulls off four wins every year. This scenario constantly repeats itself because fantasy football has a lot of luck involved. Injuries, match-ups, bye weeks and costly turnovers can turn the, “Best Sunday Ever” into “The Worst Day Ever.” However, there is some skill involved in the game, and I am here to make sure you do not fall victim to “Lucky Larry”. An active owner scours the waiver report every Tuesday morning and reads the latest info from Adam Schefter, but most importantly makes his best decisions on draft day. Draft day is one of my favorite days of the year, and here is the first strategy of my upcoming series that should help create a dominant roster.
I am going to tell you something you have probably never heard before: draft a tight end within the first 3 rounds. You are probably laughing right now, but I am dead serious. Tight end is one of my favorite positions to draft every year. Unlike other positions, the tight end position does not have depth in fantasy football. The waiver wire always has available quarterbacks, receivers or defenses that can produce respectable numbers, but the same cannot be said for tight ends. Have you ever struggled to pick up a tight end when your mediocre one can’t get you more than 6 points? I have. Therefore, having a good one gives you a huge advantage. There were only 3 tight ends last season that scored more than 140 points (8.75 points per week) according to ESPN standard scoring: Jimmy Graham, Vernon Davis and Julius Thomas. By comparing that number to the amount of receivers (18) or running backs (19) that broke 140, the data suggests that having a consistently good tight end is very valuable. To even further my point, only 10 tight ends scored more than 100 points throughout the whole season while 31 kickers scored more than 100 points! I cannot compare to quarterbacks due to the amount of points that they have, but you get my point. Tight ends are not generating lots of points, so make sure to draft a good one on the earlier side of your draft and rely on the depth of other positions later in your draft.
The Value of the Fantasy Tight End
Last year, I drafted Jimmy Graham in the second round, and then Jordan Cameron in the last round in my league. Cameron was an upside-pick due to all the rumors from Cleveland (I highly recommend using last round picks on pure upside guys), but Graham was such an advantage because of the scoring gap between him and the next best tight end. I took Graham with the idea that I would have 5-8 points on every opposing tight end matchup each week. I may have suffered 2-4 points per week in receivers, but 5-8 is more than 2-4, and that resulted in many wins for my team. Below are the stats listed for the top 5 running backs, receivers and tight ends. Everyone values running backs, and I agree with that mindset. I consistently spend a first round pick on a running back in order to make sure I can get points from that position. However, where most owners mess up is when they draft receivers before good tight ends.
Look at the point differential of the first five. Where running backs and tight ends usually have a drop in points, the receivers are bunched together.
Points last season (2013)
Running Back:
- Jamaal Charles 308.1
- LeSean McCoy 278.7
- Matt Forte 261.3
- Marshawn Lynch 239.3
- Knowshon Moreno 236.7
Wide Receiver:
- Josh Gordon 227.4
- Demaryius Thomas 227.0
- Calvin Johnson 218.9
- A.J. Green 208.6
- Brandon Marshall 201.5
Tight End:
- Jimmy Graham 217.5
- Vernon Davis 161.0
- Julius Thomas 150.8
- Jordan Cameron 133.7
- Jason Witten 133.1
Here are two scenarios:
2nd Round: Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski (I project around 190 points)
Later Round: Golden Tate or Reggie Wayne (I project around 145 points)
OR
2nd Round: Demaryius Thomas (I project around 210 points)
Later Round: Jordan Cameron or Jason Witten (I project around 110 points)
The projected combined points of the Graham scenario is higher than the latter. Graham is currently slated as the 10th best overall player in the ESPN Top 300, and I think he is worth a top 15-20 draft pick. I actually think he will have similar numbers from last season. Keep in mind that Graham had 49 catches for 746 yards and 10 TDs through Week 9, but was bothered by plantar fascia and his production was just never the same for the final 7 weeks. With the departure of Darren Sproles, who had 71 receptions for the Saints, look for Graham to get a similar amount of targets from Drew Brees.
Here are the following tight ends that are worthy of being selected in the first 3 rounds: Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski and Julius Thomas. Vernon Davis is more of a 4th round pick in my opinion. They all fall under the new “hybrid” tight end: tall, freakishly fast athletes who don’t block much and see lots of targets in the passing game. They all also share an elite signal caller delivering them passes. Therefore, make sure to grab one of these guys in your draft.
I am not telling you to reach and draft a guy like Antonio Gates or Jordan Cameron in the second round. However, if one of those main three guys is available starting in the second or third round, I would draft him. With all of this said, keep this in mind come draft day when choosing your team: how much of a weekly advantage do you want?
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All stats referenced are taken from Fantasy Football Today and are according to ESPN Standard Scoring format.
Main Photo Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
