With Wimbledon about half way through, we’re down to John Isner as the last remaining American man. Five to ten years ago this might have been news, but now it’s expected that most American men will be gone within the first few rounds. While countries like France and England have seen (or are in) longer grand slam droughts, now is as good of a time as any to wonder when an American man might actually win a major.
It’s been over ten years since Andy Roddick lifted the US Open trophy, and we could be waiting a lot longer until someone else breaks through. Below is my take on the American player’s prospects of winning a major, broken down by age group.
Next American Male Grand Slam Champion
Players ages 25 and up – John Isner and Sam Querrey: Sam Querrey has had a fine career up to this point, especially for someone who was never destined to be a pro. He played multiple sports growing up, and didn’t fully dedicate himself to tennis until his mid to upper teens. He hasn’t had a very good year so far, but his strong serve and forehand should keep him somewhere within the top 50 for most of his career. However, it’s clear he doesn’t have what it takes to win a grand slam, so the focus here will be on John Isner.
John Isner has only been a top level pro for a few years, so some people don’t realize he is already 29 years old. After four years in college, it took him a couple years to really find his footing as a pro. While he’s never going to be the most consistent guy on tour, he is always a threat to make a deep run or cause an upset. However, he has rarely played his best at the slams, and it seems unlikely he can win seven best of five matches over a two week stretch. If he gets a favorable draw at the US Open in the next year or two, a semifinal showing doesn’t seem out of the question. But in terms of actually winning a grand slam, it’s hard to give him more than a 5% chance.
Stan Wawrinka showed guys can break through and win a slam in their late twenties, but Wawrinka has a much more complete all-around game. Isner may have the ability to beat nearly anyone on any given day, but the reverse is also true. Isner has done his part to keep American men’s tennis from becoming a complete laughingstock, but don’t expect him to break the grand slam drought.
Players ages 22 through 25 – Donald Young, Bradley Klahn, Steve Johnson, Jack Sock, Ryan Harrison, Denis Kudla, Rhyne Williams: Much was expected from this group, but their success at the highest level has been minimal. Most of this group fluctuates between 50 through 120 in the world rankings. They all tend to have stretches where it appears they are ready for a breakthrough, before going into a prolonged slump.
Harrison led this group early, before falling out of the top 100. It then looked like Sock would step up, but his ranking has plateaued around 75. He may have the most potential out of all of them, but his backhand and fitness need some work. If he keeps improving, he should reach the top 25 within a few years, as his serve, forehand, and hands are already at that level. But until he consistently starts winning matches at the ATP level, it would be foolish to say he’ll challenge for major titles at any point in the next several years.
Former NCAA champions Klahn and Johnson have each made good runs during the past year, but both seem overmatched against guys in the top 40-50. Most of their success has been at the challenger level, and they need to show they can compete with the top tier. Young’s struggles have been well chronicled, as he was unable to meet the tremendous hype that was thrust upon him. He seems to have settled in as a top 100 player, and will likely close in on the top 50 as he reaches his mid to upper-twenties. However, he hasn’t given people a reason to believe he will climb much higher than that. Kudla and Williams had relatively strong seasons in 2013, but have both taken a step back this year. They both went from borderline top 100 players to well outside the top 100. They should both return to the top 100, but neither is going to be carrying the torch for American men’s tennis anytime soon. These players certainly have some talent, but it doesn’t appear America’s next grand slam champion will come out of this group.
Players ages 19-21 – Mitchell Kreuger, Bjorn Fratangelo, Marcos Giron, Mackenzie McDonald: While they are all respectable players, none of them has given any indication they are going to be top level pros. It is still early for them, as players aren’t expected to do much on the ATP Tour until they are around 22 years old. But when guys around their age like Dominic Thiem and Nick Kyrgios already have shown they can compete with some of the top players in the world, it’s hard to see this crop of Americans being truly elite. They have all had success either in college or at the futures level (the lowest level of professional tennis), but they have a long ways to go until they’re even competing regularly on the ATP Tour.
Players ages 16-19– Francis Tiafoe, Stefan Kozlov, Jared Donaldson: If an American is going to win a grand slam in the next 10 years, expect him to come from this group right here. (This probably says more about the dismal chances everyone older has, but this is quite a talented group) Francis Tiafoe’s interesting backstory has recently garnered him some national attention. His dad, an immigrant from Sierra Leone, took a maintenance job at a tennis club. Francis began picking up the sport while hanging around the club with his father, and has become America’s brightest prospect. He is one of the top juniors in the world at only 16 years of age, and currently sits at 8th in the junior world rankings. (He has been as high as number two). Like most Americans he could improve the form on his backhand, but he hits a heavy ball, has an explosive forehand, big serve, and good defensive skills. We’ve seen many times that being a top junior doesn’t guarantee anything as a pro, but Tiafoe may have the talent to compete for slams several years down the road.
Sixteen-year old Stefan Kozlov currently sits at 6th in the junior world rankings, and reached the finals of the Australian Open juniors tournament earlier this year. He has smooth groundstrokes off both sides, and should be able to add some power to his game as he gets bigger in the next few years. It’s hard to tell if his game will be big enough to be an elite pro, but he is definitely one of America’s best prospects.
Jared Donaldson is currently seventeen years old, and has already won a couple of futures titles this year. He made it to the final round of qualifying at last year’s US Open, and it appears he is on his way to reaching the game’s higher levels. For some reason he plays a lot of his futures tournaments in Turkey, but at least he isn’t afraid to play tournaments outside of the United States. If he continues to improve, he could be one of America’s best players within the next 5-7 years.
We can’t know how these three player’s games will develop over the next few years, but they are some of the best in the world at their age. Someone from this age group will have to win a grand slam eventually, and they have shown they are as good as anyone. It may be way too early to hang our hopes on one of them to win a major, but at least there are reasons to be excited about this group’s potential. Since it doesn’t look like anyone older than them will be breaking the drought first, it’s nice to know there’s some hope for the future.
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