Back to the MVP race this week. For last week’s Rookie of the Year review, click here. For the Cy Young review a week before, click here. Next week I’ll return to the Cy Young race. All stats are as of June 13th. The number in brackets represents the players position in the last set of rankings.
The MVP races are heating up. While the leaders remain the same, some new contenders have hit their way into recognition, with both races being considerably closer than they were three weeks ago. Last year’s MVPs Miguel Cabrera and Andrew McCutchen have both stepped up their game, and seem more than capable of reclaiming their titles.
AL – Bautista remains in front
1. (1.) Jose Bautista, RF, TOR: .310/.432/.547, 15 HR, 45 RBI, 51 R, 51 BB
Bautista’s 2014 is looking a lot like his 2011 season, in which he hit .302/.447/.608 with 43 homers and 132 walks, finishing 3rd in an MVP race he very easily could have won. The difference between this year and that year, however, is that the Blue Jays are leading their division with the second best record in the American League. I don’t factor team performance into my rankings, but the BBWAA certainly does meaning Bautista has a good shot at winning this award in his age-33 season.
2. (2.) Josh Donaldson, 3B, OAK: .258/.347/.508, 17 HR, 50 RBI, 52 R
Since the beginning of last year, Josh Donaldson has established himself as a star. His average has taken a noticeable dip, though last year’s .301 mark seemed like an outlier given his minor league track record, but he has been hitting for far more power and playing stellar defense; his 1.8 defensive WAR is the best of any player in the majors. If Donaldson keeps making plays and hitting homers, he is far more valuable than his mediocre batting average would suggest.
3. (-) Nelson Cruz, LF, BAL: .303/.374/.622, 21 HR, 55 RBI, 43 R
To say Cruz had a good May would be a bit of an understatement. The oft-injured outfielder hit .339/.388/.748 with 13 homers and 27 RBI for the month in his first season in Baltimore. His 1-year, $8 million contract is looking like a crazy bargain. Still one cannot blame the Rangers for parting ways with Cruz as he averaged just 131 games with a .319 OBP and unwatchable defense over the last three seasons, albeit with 27 homers per season. His defense is still awful, but even if he comes back down to Earth he looks poised to set career highs in homers, RBI and walks.
4. (-) Miguel Cabrera, 1B, DET: .325/.374/.567, 12 HR, 54 RBI, 37 R, 22 2B
Speaking of players who had incredible months, we have reigning back-to-back MVP Miguel Cabrera coming off a .380/.423/.704 May with 8 homers and 34 RBI. That type of play has vaulted him ahead of Mike Trout once again. Miggy, however, is not without some concerning numbers as his walk rate has fallen significantly (he’s drawn just 20 in 62 games after averaging 88 the past four seasons) and his power has dropped back to his pre-2012 level. Still, it stands a testament to his greatness when his .940 OPS would be his worst showing since his first full season in 2004. If he continues to put his terrible April behind him, he could very well win his third straight trophy.
5. (5.) Mike Trout, CF, LAA: .293/.380/.556, 12 HR, 45 RBI, 41 R
Once again, Trout finds himself sitting behind Miguel Cabrera in the MVP race. And once again, it’s a virtual tossup as Trout’s .936 OPS sits four points behind Cabrera. While I’d have put Trout higher each of the last two seasons, I gave the nod to Miggy this week as he has the 30-point edge in BA, with OBP and slugging essentially a tie, and with Trout’s running game significantly diminished. We’re halfway through June and Trout has just 6 stolen bases, after swiping 33 last year and 49 the year before. That, along with his rising strikeout rate, are causes for concern for the 22-year old superstar.
Off the list –
(3.) Brian Dozier, 2B, MIN
(5.) Victor Martinez, DH, DET
NL – Tulo lapping the field
1. (1.) Troy Tulowitzki, SS, COL: .356/.448/.667, 17 HR, 43 RBI, 53 R
Tulowitzki’s outrageous season continues, as he has followed up his ridiculous April with an equally stellar May and a fine first half of June. His 1.115 OPS and 5.1 WAR lead the majors and, should he stay healthy, he appears ready to destroy his career highs in just about every meaningful offensive stat. Playing for the Rockies, a significant home-road split is to be expected, but Tulo’s slash line in Colorado looks straight out of a video game: .477/.550/.872. Obviously that level of play is completely unsustainable, but given his talent, and the fact that he is hitting a mere .234 on the road, those numbers could normalize and Tulo would still be hands down the best player in the National League.
2. (2.) Giancarlo Stanton, RF, MIA: .299/.394/.582, 17 HR, 53 RBI, 47 R
This season, Stanton has been doing exactly what he does best: hitting mammoth home runs. Like Tulo, with whom he is tied for the NL lead in homers, the 24-year-old is on pace to set career highs across the board and for the first time in his career, the Marlins are playing respectable baseball. Leading a lineup of emerging stars and playing excellent defense, the sky is the limit for Stanton’s potential.
3. (4.) Andrew McCutchen, CF, PIT: .321/.435/.550, 10 HR, 37 RBI, 36 R, 48 BB
After hitting just 4 homers over the first two months of the season, and none in the month of May, McCutchen has found his power stroke, hitting .429/.500/1.071 with 6 homers and 9 doubles. Of his 18 hits over that span, 15 have gone for extra bases. That power surge has vaulted him up the rankings, sitting just behind Stanton. McCutchen seems to get better every season, as he has upped his walk rate significantly, currently leading the NL with 48 against 46 strikeouts. He is also 8-for-8 on the basepaths after getting caught over 10 times each of the past four seasons. Such trends, and the arrival of top prospect Gregory Polanco, bode well for the reigning MVP’s chances of a repeat.
4. (3.) Yasiel Puig, RF, LAD: .328/.420/.569, 11 HR, 40 RBI, 35 R
Like McCutchen, Puig has shown far more patience at the plate this season, as his 31 walks in 61 games far outpace the 36 he drew in 104 last season. However, unlike McCutchen, Puig hasn’t had more success of the bases, as he is just 7-for-12 on the season. Such numbers speak to how Puig, whole showing obvious signs of maturity this season, still has a ways to go in terms of avoiding lapses in judgement both on the bases and in the outfield. Regardless, Puig has been one of the best hitters in the National League this season, and looks to have a bright future ahead of him.
5. (-) Carlos Gomez, CF, MIL: .310/.377/.557, 12 HR, 37 RBI, 43 R, 11 SB
Gomez is proving that his great season last year was no fluke, as his current slash line sits above his numbers last year in all three categories. On a near 30-30 pace, Gomez could become to first player since 2012 to accomplish the feat. With his elite defense, blinding speed and 20-home run power, Gomez has emerged as one of the best all-around players in the league, a far cry from the Gomez who put up a .243/.291/.357 line in over 1500 ABs between 2007-2011.
Off the list –
(5.) Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, ARI
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