With his newest French Open title, and 14th Grand Slam total, Rafael Nadal is suddenly only three majors behind Roger Federer on the all-time list. In the months and years to come, there will be much focus on whether Nadal can pass Federer’s 17 slams. Assuming he can maintain his health for at least a few more years, Nadal has to feel good about his chances.
I’m not sure if anyone would be surprised to see Nadal win one or two more French Open titles, and one or two more slams elsewhere. If he pulls it off, the record will have gone from Sampras to Federer to Nadal in the span of around 15 years. What people aren’t talking about, however, is how safe the Grand Slam record might be when Nadal retires (whether it belongs to Federer or Nadal). If the changing demographics of the game hold true, it is likely the record will not be approached again for the foreseeable future.
It has been well documented that players are peaking at older ages than ever before. Not only are there no teenagers in the top 100 anymore, it is rare for players to under 21 or 22 to be in the top 100. Most players these days don’t have significant success on the ATP tour until they are in their mid-twenties. The current “young” generation of Dimitrov, Nishikori and Raonic are finally starting to make their move into the top 10, but the youngest of them is 23. It will likely be another year or two before these three are seriously competing for grand slam titles.
It is certainly true that on the other end, players are able to compete at a high level into their thirties like never before. Tommy Haas is still going strong at 36, and 32 year olds Roger Federer and David Ferrer are still firmly entrenched in the top 10. Stan Wawrinka just won his first slam at 28, and countless others are reaching career high rankings in their late twenties. Despite the trend of peaking at older ages, it is still rare for players past 30 to actually win Grand Slam titles. (A 30 year old Federer did win Wimbledon in 2012). It appears there might be the occasional 30 year old who adds a slam, but that there will not be 30 year olds winning majors on a regular basis.
What this means is that the window to win Grand Slam titles is shrinking. At least for the next several years, it appears that most titles will be won by players between the ages of 24 and 30. This will make it significantly harder for players to rack up Grand Slam title counts approaching the double digits.
Most of the all-time greats (with the highest Slam counts) started winning major titles in their teens or low twenties. Winning two slams a year from ages 24-30 would leave you with 14, still several shy from the record. Thus, unless some phenom comes along who picks up a couple majors from ages 20-23, it is unlikely any player will approach the record in the foreseeable future. Unless they are physically able to compete with the top guys from a young age (something that does not seem realistic based on recent trends), it simply will not matter how talented they are or how dominant they are in their prime. It will be extremely difficult for any future player to reach anything close to 17 slams. Upon Nadal’s retirement, either Nadal or Federer should be able to relax knowing that the record will be theirs for a while.
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