For years, the Philadelphia Phillies were lucky: They were reaching the Playoffs, largely due to having the greatest first baseman, second baseman and shortstop in team history, all at their peaks.
But now Ryan Howard has fallen victim to injuries that have rendered him not even ready to be a designated hitter, Chase Utley developed an old man’s knees, and Jimmy Rollins is no longer as effective as he once was. There are other facts in the Phillies’ collapse from reaching five straight postseasons, including back-to-back pennants and a World Series win, but this one is the most shocking.
It looks like this big three is nearly finished, at least as regular contributors to a winning team. Is any of them worthy of Hall of Fame election?
Ryan Howard
He has a lifetime batting average of .269 (not good), on-base .358 (better), slugging .540 (very good), OPS+ 133 (very good). Hits, 1,224; home runs, 332; in each case, good, but not nearly enough. He’s had only one season batting at least .300, but has had six seasons of at least 30 homers, four of at least 40, and topped out at 58, the most of any National League lefthanded hitter ever, and tying Jimmie Foxx of the old Athletics for the most in Philadelphia history. He had six seasons of at least 100 RBIs; for comparison’s sake, Mickey Mantle had just four. Still, given that Citizens Bank Park is a hitters’ park, he should have bigger numbers, both seasonal and career.
He has three All-Star berths and the 2006 National League MVP, and three other times has finished in the top five in the MVP voting. That’s not enough. Baserunning doesn’t help him: 12 stolen bases for a career; nor does fielding: no Gold Gloves. In postseason play, he came through in the 2008 NLCS and World Series, the 2009 NLDS and NLCS (MVP in the latter), and the 2010 NLDS and NLCS. But in four other series, he was poor, including a World Series record 13 strikeouts in 2009.
Looking at Baseball-Reference.com’s ten “most similar batters” to Howard, none of them are currently in the Hall; of those, only Prince Fielder has a legitimate chance to make it. There’s no serious evidence that he used performance-enhancing drugs, but he does fit the profile: From ages 25 to 31, he was one of the best sluggers in the game; since then, he’s been plagued by injuries and just hasn’t been getting it done.
Chase Utley
Lifetime BA .288 (good), OBP .373 (very good), SLG .498 (good), OPS+ 127 (good). Hits, 1,477; home runs, 221; in each case, decent, but not nearly enough. He’s batted .300 twice, and is actually batting .318 at this writing. Three seasons of at least 30 homers, four of at least 100 RBIs; given his ballpark, there should be more.
He has five All-Star berths, but his highest place in the MVP voting has been seventh. Baserunning doesn’t help him much: Only 130 career steals. Fielding doesn’t help much: No Gold Gloves. He has been inconsistent in postseason play: He was great in the NLDS in 2009, ’10 and ’11, in the NLCS in 2008, and the World Series in 2009; however, in four other series, he was nearly invisible. In the 2008 World Series, he only got three hits, but two were home runs, for four RBIs.
His most similar batters include interesting players like Nomar Garciaparra, Carlos Guillen, and the still-active Robinson Cano, David Wright, Hanley Ramirez and Victor Martinez; but the only one of the ten already in the Hall is Joe Gordon. There’s no evidence that he cheated, but, as with Howard, there is a big statistical dropoff and injury tendency from age 31 onward.
Jimmy Rollins
Now, we’re talking about a different kind of player: He’s known as a contact hitter, good baserunner, good fielder, and team leader; more a Derek Jeter type than a big boomer, Miguel Cabrera type like Howard; or a scrappy but powerful middle infielder, Robin Yount type like Utley.
He has a lifetime BA of .268; OBP, .328; SLG, .425; OPS+, 97; hits, 2,226; home runs, 205. Aside from the career hits, none of those statistics suggests even All-Star status, let alone Hall of Fame. He’s never batted .300 in a season, has four 20-homer seasons but only one reaching 30, and has never had a 100-RBI season.
He has, however, led the NL in triples four times and in runs scored once. He’s had ten seasons of at least 30 doubles, and four of at least 40. That suggests a little power, and good baserunning. That thought is backed by his 432 career stolen bases, including ten seasons of at least 30 and four of at least 40; however, he has only led the league once. His fielding also helps him, as he’s won four Gold Gloves. But he’s only made three All-Star teams, none since 2005. He has won an MVP, in 2007, but that’s the only time he’s come close in the voting.
He’s been the Phils’ sparkplug, their leader on the field and off, getting them to postseason play five times and nearly two others. He excelled in the 2008 NLCS, and hit well in the 2011 NLDS. Other than that, he hasn’t been a positive factor, including batting .222 with just two RBIs in his two World Series (11 games).
His ten most similar batters provide an interesting look: Two of them, Barry Larkin and Pee Wee Reese, are in the Hall; a third, Alan Trammell, has some supporters for his election (including this writer). In each of the four cases (counting Rollins himself), the defense helps a lot.
Just in the last year, there has been talk of disputes between Rollins and Phillies’ manager Ryne Sandberg, and it has coincided with a statistical decline. From ages 22 to 33, he was one of the leading figures of National League baseball. After that, he’s been just another player.
My conclusion: Ryan Howard and Chase Utley are good guys, and were once great sluggers. And Jimmy Rollins was one of the most exciting players of our era. They were once winners. But; barring big-time comebacks at late ages, none is worthy of the Hall of Fame.
And that’s something I never would have expected to say as recently as 2011.
For more on sports injuries, check out our friends at Sports Injury Alert.
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