Today saw the draws being made for both the ATP and WTA French Open tournaments. Here’s my take on the ATP draw, and my predictions for the champion.
French Open Men’s Draw
First Quarter
As World No.1, Rafael Nadal heads up the draw. He should have a pretty simple opener, against Robby Ginepri, who’s been as high as No.15, but is now way down outside the top 200. He’s also not that comfortable on clay courts, so Nadal shouldn’t have any problem here. More interesting would be a second round match with talented Austrian youngster Dominic Thiem. Thiem had a good win over Stan Wawrinka in Madrid, and while I don’t expect him to beat Nadal, it would be interesting to see how he copes with such a big stage. Nicolas Almagro or Tommy Haas could also stand in Nadal’s way to the quarter-finals, but he shouldn’t have too much trouble with either of them.
The other top-8 seed in this quarter is David Ferrer, who is an experienced and formidable clay court player himself. He has a slightly tougher section, potentially having to face Juan Monaco in round 3, before what could be a testing fourth round match against Grigor Dimitrov. I’d be intrigued to see that match – I’d expect Ferrer to win, but Dimitrov is certainly capable of pulling off a shock.
Semifinalist: Nadal
Second quarter
Stanislas Wawrinka is the top seed here, and he seems to have a very manageable draw until the fourth round – he opens against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, and could face Feliciano Lopez in the third round. His fourth round match, though, could be something to get excited about – he could face the dangerous Fabio Fognini. Fognini, in fairness, is as likely to go out in round one as he is to give Wawrinka a good match in the last 16, but if he plays well he’ll be a difficult opponent for Wawrinka. Another possible opponent is Gael Monfils, who’s as unpredictably talented as Fognini. I’m hoping at least one of them plays well enough to reach that stage.
The other high seed here is Andy Murray, who’s coming off a strong performance in Rome, nearly upsetting Nadal in the quarter-finals. His path to the quarter-finals shouldn’t be too tough – Fernando Verdasco seems to be the greatest threat to his progression, which could be a close match. Gasquet is the other high seed in this section, but he’s been struggling with injury recently and is a bit of a question mark.
Semifinalist: Wawrinka
Third quarter
Roger Federer heads up this quarter, and it’ll be intriguing to see how he does after his early loss in Rome. He opens against Lukas Lacko, and it seems that his first test will come in the fourth round, where he could face Ernests Gulbis, who plays in the Nice final today. Another tricky potential opponent at that stage could be Radek Stepanek, although he seems less likely to reach the last 16.
Federer’s joined here by Tomas Berdych, who plays his first match against Peter Polansky. Berdych could face Roberto Bautista Agut in the third round, who beat him in Indian Wells. Bautista Agut has risen about 30 places in the rankings so far this year, and reached the semi-finals in Madrid – a rematch with Berdych here would be intriguing. John Isner’s also in this section, but I don’t expect him to do particularly well – clay is by far his weakest surface, and he tends not to do so well away from his native USA.
Also here: Tommy Robredo, who won three consecutive 5-set matches here last year. The Spanish veteran also defeated Federer at the US Open last year.
Semifinalist: Berdych
Fourth quarter
As the World No.2, Novak Djokovic resides here. He could potentially have a tough third match against Marin Cilic, who’s having a good year – he’s won two titles so far – but has admittedly fallen off the pace a bit since the start of the clay season. It won’t get any easier in the fourth round either, where he could face Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, although Tsonga is also having a disappointing year. Still, if Djokovic plays like he did to win the title in Rome, he should come through to the quarterfinals.
Milos Raonic heads up the other section, and he has what could be a tricky first match against talented Australian youngster Nick Kyrgios. Raonic answered questions about his clay-court prowess last week with a semi-final showing in Rome, but he has a tough section of the draw here. He could face Gilles Simon in round 3, but the biggest obstacle between him and the quarterfinals is Kei Nishikori, who was having an excellent season before succumbing to injury. Expect Nishikori to be the quarterfinalist from this section
Also here: Marcel Granollers, who’s unseeded but is a capable clay court player. He could face Nishikori in round 3.
Semifinalist: Djokovic
Semifinals: Nadal d. Wawrinka –Nadal seems as though he’s back to playing something like his best tennis, and his 59-1 record in Paris is testament to just how difficult it is to win three sets from him on his favoured surface. I don’t think Wawrinka will be able to keep up the intensity to the absurdly high level it needs for long enough to defeat Nadal at his favourite tournament.
Djokovic d. Berdych – Djokovic is 15-2 against Berdych, and is in the kind of form that will see him extend that lead further. He’s the more complete player, and is itching to take the Roland Garros title to complete his Grand Slam collection. Berdych won’t stop him.
Final: Djokovic d. Nadal – he showed us again in Rome that he’s capable of downing Nadal on clay. It’ll be a huge challenge to do so again in Paris, but he was close last year, and I think this is finally his year to take the title. His win in Rome will have given him the mental edge against Nadal – it’ll be an incredibly difficult match, but I think that this year, Djokovic can finally dethrone the King of Clay.
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