The all Madrid Champions League final will be hyped up to be this intriguing contest, a battle between the wallets (Real Madrid) and the romantics (Atletico Madrid) of Spanish football. A battle between the La Liga winners and the Copa Del Rey holders. Yet the scenario presented for footballing fans is one that could be underwhelming once the 90 minutes is up, because this could be the biggest blowout in a Champions League final.
Of course, I am talking about Real Madrid taking the Champions League trophy home for the tenth time in its remarkable history. For all the footballing romance that Atletico’s season has had, their hearts could very well be broken—as well as many fans of the beautiful game that aren’t fans of Los Blancos.
A month ago it would have been ridiculous to come up with prediction. A stunning victory at Stamford Bridge, Jose Mourinho’s supposed fortress, help secured their spot and their second Champions League final appearance.
And let’s not forget the incredible domestic success that Diego Simeone’s men achieved this season by capturing the league title and ending the Barca/Real duopoly. Atletico Madrid finished ahead of their el Clasico rivals by three points—something which would have been scoffed at if anybody suggested this would happen twelve months ago. Nothing can underwrite their deserved success this season.
Real Madrid’s season almost parallel’s Atletico’s too. The Galacticos achieved some domestic success, despite throwing their league title bid away, by winning the Copa Del Rey. Carlo Ancelotti’s men beat Barcelona 2-1 via a magnificent goal from Gareth Bale and they destroyed their cross-city rivals Atletico 5-0 (on aggregate) en route to the cup final.
Furthermore, the parallels extend to their Champions league success. Like Atletico with their triumphant 3-1 win over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, Real Madrid achieved something that is as equally, if not more, impressive at the Allianz Arena in Munich. They beat the current European champions 4-0 and the result truly reflects how dominant Real Madrid have been in the tournament.
Moreover, neither team have been in exceptional form in the running up to the all Madrid Champions League final. Real Madrid won one of their last four league games—their last one against Espanyol where it no longer mattered. An embarrassing 2-0 defeat away to Celta Vigo meant that their title bid was over in a pathetic fashion. Atletico’s record was similar post Champions League semi-final picking up two out of a possible nine.
So far, so close between the two sides.
But in case anybody has been not catching up on their La Liga football, Atletico suffered two major injuries which one cannot help but think that their chances of Champions League success are severely hindered.
Diego Costa’s injury is the most notable heading into this match. The star striker may not make it into the squad, let alone the starting lineup. His 36 goals in 49 games makes the Spanish striker Atletico’s most lethal hitman and his goals will be hard to replace. Even if he could make it back for the final, Costa will not be 100% fit and he will also have the World Cup to think about too. At least, they do have two other good forwards in veteran David Villa and Raul Garcia (midfielder who can play up front, or just behind Villa) who have managed 32 goals in all competition.
Yet it is Turkish midfielder Arda Turan that Atletico could miss the most if he is unable to get fit and healthy before the final. Along with Garcia and Gabi, Turan has been vital in their La Liga winning season with nine goals and six assists to his name. Replacing Turan is much harder than Costa in terms of the impact to the position.
They survived against Barcelona last Saturday but surviving Real Madrid will prove difficult. The team in white will have a rested Cristiano Ronaldo coming back and will also be buoyed with their 3-1 victory over Espanyol (even if it was meaningless).
Atletico’s defence is one of the toughest in Spanish football with Godin, Felipe Luis, Juanfran and Miranda safeguarding the best young goalkeeper in football Thibaut Courtois. Yet Real Madrid’s attack is relentless and fruitful with Ronaldo, Bale and Di Maria able to switch positions easily. And with Benzema up front, Real Madrid can cause chaos for their defence— their Copa Del Rey semi-final is evidence of how Real Madrid can bully Atletico easily.
There is also a statistical way of looking at the recent history of the Champions League final. In the last ten years, only two underdogs have gone on to win the game. They were Liverpool in 2005 and Chelsea in 2012 and they both won by penalties. Taking this into account and factoring in that this Atletico side are looking incredibly tired and depleted, Real Madrid have to be considered the overwhelming favourites in this all Madrid Champions League final.
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