Finally, after a couple of long months on clay, we’ve hit the peak. The French Open draw is released on Friday, which means in around two weeks’ time we’ll either have Serena Williams lifting yet another major trophy, or we’ll all be relatively surprised. While Serena is definitely the odds-on favorite in Paris, I see four other players that could stand in the way of her 18th Slam crown.
1) Serena Williams
2013 result: Champion (defeated Sharapova 6-4 6-4)
Serena is without a doubt the player to beat for the next two weeks. Before Rome we had a few questions about her form and health, but she answered both by romping her way to the title, defeating 11th-ranked Sara Errani 6-3 6-0 in the final. The greatest news for Williams fans is she definitely controls her own destiny. If she plays even 75-percent of her maximum capacity, I think she wins her third French Open title two Sundays from now.
The one and only concern I have about Serena is if she’s forced to play through injury. A tweak of her back or turn of an ankle coupled with a dangerous opponent could mean a relatively early-round exit from the world number one. However, based on her Rome performance this won’t be an issue. It’s difficult (and probably stupid) to bet against her this tournament. The draw isn’t out yet, but count on Serena lifting the trophy if all’s well with her body.
2) Maria Sharapova
2013 result: Final (lost to Williams 4-6 4-6)
Though she may not be able to beat Serena head-to-head, Sharapova is without a doubt the next best clay-courter in the women’s game. Before her third round loss to Ana Ivanovic last week in Rome, she hadn’t lost to a player besides Williams on dirt since the 2011 French Open. Last year she rolled pretty impressively to the final and actually fought very hard in both sets. The dream scenario this year would be to be placed in Agnieszka Radwanksa’s quarter, and on the opposite half of Serena. This would give her a great shot the final, and if Williams happens to stumble I think Maria would take home the trophy.
However, Sharapova’s ranking drop off since her surgery last fall leaves no guarantees of a safe draw. The current world number eight could even find herself facing Serena as early as the quarterfinals, which would definitely be the nightmare scenario. I feel like I’ve mentioned Williams a lot, but it’s impossible not to when examining Maria’s chances this fortnight. While I suppose it’s possible we could see an early exit given a dangerous draw (like everyone else), in my opinion her title chances almost certainly depend on two things: the draw and Serena Williams’ health.
3) Simona Halep
2013 result: 1st round (lost to Suarez-Navarro 6-3 2-6 2-6)
Many tennis fans may have not even heard of Halep at this time last year. She did begin her big 2013 season with a semifinal appearance in Rome, but after Roland Garros is when she really blossomed. Simona won four clay titles during that summer, and continues to go nowhere but up. This week she checks in at a career high ranking of four, which means avoiding the likes of Serena, Li Na, and Radwanska until the semifinals.
Halep’s game shines on clay, and defending only first round points means she will very likely widen the margin significantly between herself and the players close behind. She did pull out of Rome last week with an injury, but I’d guess this is only precautionary. She came back to beat Madison Keys 6-7 6-0 6-1 before withdrawing in the next round. That doesn’t smell of bad health to my nose. While our top two contenders have never lost to Simona, she’s one of the few women I think could beat either of them at whatever stage they see each other. I can’t say enough how well her game fits this surface. I’m all in with Halep, but it’d be a nightmare to draw a Sharapova quarter along with being in Serena’s half. Back-to-back wins against those two is an ultra tough ask.
4) Li Na
2013 result: 2nd round (lost to Mattek-Sands 7-5 3-6 2-6)
The 2011 champion hasn’t played a huge sample of clay matches in 2014, but she’s had decent results. Li lost to Sharapova in the Madrid quarterfinals in a tough three setter before falling to Sara Errani in Rome. The world number two (and current Road to Singapore leader) will always be a threat to beat anyone (including Serena) with her offensive mindset and outstanding backhand. However, that offensive mentality also entails the possibly of going cold and falling in an early round. Li did win the 2011 French Open, but other than that, her clay results haven’t been the most solid.
This is a big opportunity for the Chinese star to pick up a lot of valuable points and widen the gap between number three Radwanska and herself. She currently leads by over 1100 points, but I’m sure Li wouldn’t mind more tournaments on the opposite half of the draw from Serena. Like I said, she COULD win this thing, but she could also crash out in the first round.
5) Ana Ivanovic
2013 result: 4th round (lost to Radwanska 2-6 4-6)
No, I’m not joking. Many would scoff at labeling the 2008 champion a real contender, but I’m here to say she absolutely is. Ana already beat Serena at the Australian Open this year, and has backed it up with many solid results. More importantly, she’s found her old rhythm on clay unlike anything I’ve seen from her since the dream year she had six years ago. Her three losses this season on dirt were the Stuttgart final to Sharapova, a quarterfinal loss to Halep in Madrid, and a semifinal loss to Serena in Rome. She pushed both Maria and Serena and showed everything she needed to to label herself as a top contender in Paris. Trust me, Ana is going to be a force at the 2014 French Open.
The problem with Ivanovic (like Sharapova) is her ranking. She sits at number twelve, which means we could conceivably end up with a Serena-Maria-Ana quarter. Please, tennis draw gods, don’t do this to us! These three deserve to be matched up in a semi or final, not the fourth round. Enough speculation though, only a little bit longer (Friday morning, in my timezone) until we get to see the draw, which will give us a more clear view of how can we can expect Paris to play out. Ana’s fate likely depends on not being handed a gauntlet of top players.
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