Sometimes we get excited about the four majors but deep down know that in the end it will come down to the same old results. Serena Williams wins if she fancies it, Novak Djokovic is likely to win hard-court tournaments and, as sure as night follows day, Rafael Nadal reigns supreme at Roland Garros.
But this year there’s uncertainty as we enter the season’s second Grand Slam. There’s a sense of change on both tours, a sea change. Yet we can rest assured that the old warhorses will not go down without a fight. Moreover, it’s not just young, ‘new’ names in the fray; there are former champions coming back to the fore. You can make a case for up to six different winners in each draw. Picking is a fun task!
Nadal has lost matches in the past six weeks that he would never have lost in the past decade. His first loss in Barcelona in eight years, losses to David Ferrer, Nicolas Almagro and a lucky escape against an injured Kei Nishikori – Mr Invincibility has suddenly become very conquerable! He will hope that his superman aura will return in time for his title defence and there were late signs of promise in Madrid with a high-quality turnaround against Andy Murray and a demolition job on rising star Grigor Dmitrov before losing to Djokovic in the final.
The Serbian himself has taken some time to get into the groove but now seems in fine clay court form ahead of another tilt at the one major that eludes him. Beating Nadal a week before the tournament starts will have put his head in a good place and hopefully his wrist injury doubts are behind him; the tournament and tour needs a fully-fit Rafa and Novak.
Other contenders at Roland Garros
The Australian Open champion Stanislas Wawrinka is as good a bet as any after a clay court season that started well but stuttered recently. An early loss to rising star Dominic Thiem in Madrid and a defeat at the hands of evergreen Tommy Haas in Rome should not get in the way of the fact that in the Monte Carlo Masters event, Wawrinka cleaned up in a full-strength tournament. He now believes he can beat any of the top players and that can stand him in good stead in Paris.
Does Ferrer have a chance at Roland Garros? I think he does. Although it would be a tough ask to win his first major at 32, he’s as fit as ever and will be better for his experience in the final last year. He has clay court wins over Nadal and Dimitrov already this year, but Nishikori seems to trouble him more.
The Japanese is on the verge of a big breakthrough. Could it happen here? I remain unconvinced. He seems plagued with niggling injuries and stamina concerns, much like Djokovic earlier in his career. Two retirements and a walkover loss in the past three months are all you need to know. To ask him to do serious damage in five sets is unrealistic.
I know I’m in the minority but I happen to believe Andy Murray can win the French Open in his career. Blessed with a good draw, he can do well and play himself into shape and form in time for his Wimbledon defence. But he will not yet be the King of France.
Women’s Contenders at Roland Garros
On the women’s side, defending champion Serena Williams will be where the smart money goes. As is often the case with the dominant American, she appears to have played herself into form in perfect time. Her victory in Rome last week was ominous; the previous two occasions she did that, she lifted the French Open trophy three weeks later. The thing with Serena is, as we all know, nobody matches up to her in a head-to-head record. In fact, nobody comes close. So it’s hard to predict her losing, and even harder to pick where exactly that loss occurs. But she does have off days, so there is hope for others.
The 2012 champion Maria Sharapova struts into Paris feeling pretty good about herself. Her clay season has yielded two trophies and victories over most of the women with a shot. She has lost only once on clay this year, to Ana Ivanovic in Rome. I’m not sure if it was a tactical loss to give her more time to prepare for Paris. Note: she usually wins a major every two and half years, give or take a few months. She is due this summer!
Ivanovic is another former champ with a chance; the belief that beating Serena Williams in Melbourne has given her is enormous. A fine season on the dirt (a final and SF), and she will be amongst friends in Paris. The oft-unforgiving Roland Garros crowd actually likes the Serb and they will be on her side should she reach the latter stages.
Best of the rest
2011 champion Na Li should never be discounted but her form isn’t good enough to place her as a favourite. Simona Halep is the break-out star of 2014 but expect an early loss here as she gets used to coping with heightened expectation. Agnieszka Radwanska has never performed at her best in Paris but if she avoids Sharapova and Serena she can still make her customary Grand Slam semi-final berth.
Winners
For all my talk of new faces, I’m backing two familiar ones to seal the deal. Over five sets at Roland Garros, I don’t see anybody denying Rafael Nadal a ninth title. I expect the gap to be the smallest so far, but he will be biting the trophy in a fortnight’s time. On the women’s side, I’m going for Sharapova to win for a second time in three years, beating Serena on the way, if need be. One of those winners was always a clay specialist, who’d have ever thought the other one would be?!
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