The San Antonio Spurs ride high into the Western Conference Final coming off a five-game series win over the Portland Trailblazers. Meanwhile, the Oklahoma City Thunder came off a six-game series win over the Los Angeles Clippers. Unfortunately there was a major loss in that sixth game when Serge Ibaka suffered a sprained his left calf in a collision with Chris Paul in the 3rd quarter. Ibaka is expected to miss the rest of the postseason. Ibaka is a Spurs assassin, terrorizing Tim Duncan and shutting down Tony Parker when he penetrates the paint. Without #9 in the starting line-up, it will disrupt the Thunder’s offensive and defensive chemistry.
During the course of the regular season Oklahoma City swept San Antonio 4-0. None of the contests were even close, but this year’s NBA MVP, Kevin Durant averaged just 26.3 points per game versus San Antonio. This was Durant’s lowest scoring average against any team this season. However these stats need to be taken with a grain of salt, as the regular season head to head stat often don’t matter a lot come playoff time. Just look at the recent series between the Brooklyn Nets and Miami Heat. While Brooklyn went 4-0 vs Miami in the regular season they were defeated 4-1 in the playoffs.
The loss of Ibaka is huge those as without the Thunder’s third leading scorer, Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant need to combine for and average of 85 points per game or Oklahoma has virtually no chance to outscore the Spurs who have managed to put up 105.5 points per game so far during the playoffs. The Thunder are essentially a two man team without Serge Ibaka on the court to spread the floor and I just don’t see a two man team beating the well oiled machine that is the San Antonio Spurs, who use a roster 10 guys deep.
Ever since the 2012 Western Conference Final where the Spurs took a 2-0 series lead, only to get blown out in four straight games to lose the series, the Spurs have struggled winning only two of 10 games between the clubs since taking that 2-0 lead. However, the Thunder are without Ibaka who just wrecks havoc against San Antonio, and a young Steven Adams will have to try to fill his shoes. Outside of Ibaka the only other guy who kills San Antonio is the point guard as Russell Westbrook who plays with a rage to win always terrorizes Tony Parker and Gregg Poppovich is forced to send in Patty Mills who arguably is the best back up guard in the NBA. Mills pressures and frustrates Westbrook and shuts down the entire Oklahoma City offense.
The X-Factor in this series will be Manu Ginobili, who comes off the bench averaging 13.9 PPG. Manu is Oklahoma City’s kryptonite, he plays up-tempo, shoots 3’s, plays lockdown defense, drives and sells fouls, and gets the Thunder into foul trouble. With Manu in the game it takes the attention off three point snipers like Belinelli, Leonard, and Green and then the league leading three point shooting team goes off. Ginobli is key, he is truly San Antonio’s MVP. All in all I truly believe the Spurs will knock off the Thunder 4-2, and advance to the NBA Finals and possibly right the wrongs against the Miami Heat.
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