With the conclusion of the Italian Open today, the long road to Roland Garros is almost at an end. Most of the WTA and ATP’s big names won’t play again until the year’s second major begins next Sunday.
ATP – Novak Djokovic is the Emperor of Rome
Novak Djokovic’s impressive 3-set victory over Rafael Nadal today told us two things. Firstly, it’s safe to assume that he’s recovered well from his recent wrist injury that caused him trouble in Monte Carlo and forced him to pull out of Madrid. This is encouraging news, as wrist injuries can be very nasty – just ask Juan Martin del Potro, currently on a second long hiatus after wrist surgery, or Laura Robson, who’ll miss at least the grass court season this year. The absence of the man likely to be Nadal’s main challenger in Paris would have diminished the tournament greatly, so it’s good to see Djokovic fully fit again.
Secondly, it showed us that not only is Djokovic fully recovered, he’s also back at the top of his game. Some of the tennis he played against Nadal in the Rome final was breathtaking, and he was a deserved winner – Nadal didn’t lose this match, Djokovic most certainly won it, hitting over three times as many winners as his opponent.
This makes the prospect of their meeting in Paris a mouth-watering one – Nadal’s only ever lost once on the Parisian clay, and it’s Djokovic who’s come the closest to inflicting a second defeat on him. Last year, Nadal won their semi-final 9-7 in the fifth – if they meet again at the end of the fortnight, expect another tight battle.
Of course, we didn’t just learn about Nadal and Djokovic’s prospects this week. Andy Murray played his best clay-court match in years, handing a breadstick 6-1 set to Nadal before going down 7-5 in the third. If he plays like that in Paris, he’ll go further than many expect him to – it’s often forgotten that he’s a former French Open semi-finalist, even if he has never reached a final on clay.
Milos Raonic showed us that he can do damage on the surface, reaching his second Masters semi-final and pushing Djokovic extremely close. If he gets a good draw, he could also do well, even though the slow surface doesn’t help his big-serving style.
There are another couple of players worth mentioning here – Grigor Dimitrov reached his first Masters semi-final this week, before losing tamely to Nadal. While the manner of his loss was disappointing, he beat Djokovic in Madrid last year, and has been having some excellent results recently – he’s won his first three titles all in the last 7 months.
Roger Federer is a bit of a mystery at the moment – having rushed back from the birth of his second set of twins to play Rome, an early loss isn’t too much of a surprise – he must be extremely distracted. If he can refocus well, then his excellent start to the clay season would suggest he’ll do very well in Paris, but it would be no great surprise to me at least if he suffered another early loss.
In the doubles tournament, it’s worth watching out for the team of Daniel Nestor and Nenad Zimonjic. They’ve reformed for this season, and despite their combined age of 78(!), they won their second consecutive Masters event this week. They’ve beaten the Bryan twins in both title runs, and are beginning to catch them in the Race to London. Last time they played a season together, they finished No.1. It’ll be intriguing to see whether they can do so again.
WTA – Serena Williams Reigns
Serena Williams is having an odd season. Just when people were starting to count her out a little, on the basis of a withdrawal from Madrid with a thigh injury and an early exit in Charleston, she wins the last big tournament before Roland Garros. It seems difficult to make an argument against her being the Roland Garros favourite given her performance this week, but she’s not been her usual dominant self this season so far, which puts a little doubt out there.
Serena Williams would certainly start as favourite against any opponent, but what more often seems to be Serena’s undoing is the pressure she puts herself under to repeat her successes – she certainly credited her first-round loss in Paris in 2012 with that. Injury has often been her downfall this year too – she had back problems during her loss at the Australian Open (which also caused her to withdraw from Doha) and of course withdrew before her quarterfinal in Madrid. If she’s fully fit – this week would suggest that she is – and at ease, she should take the title.
Despite her loss to Ana Ivanovic this week, I’d still install Maria Sharapova as the second favourite. Ivanovic was the first player aside from Serena to beat Sharapova on clay since Li Na the 2011 French Open – an impressive run of almost 50 matches unbeaten against all but one player. If Serena loses in Paris, Sharapova is still for me the favourite to take the title. However, with the form Ivanovic has been in recently, she’ll face tough competition – Ivanovic is also a former French Open champion, from way back in 2008, and has reached at least the quarterfinals in every clay tournament she’s played so far this year.
There are other players that deserve a mention after this week too. Sara Errani is an impressive clay court player who’s been having a tough year, at least until Rome. The Italian reached the final, defeating Li Na along the way, before ultimately falling to Serena. She injured herself during that final loss, but if she can overcome that in time, expect this former French Open finalist to go far again this year. Another name to look out for is Carla Suarez Navarro. She’s particularly dangerous on clay courts, and Ivanovic needed three sets to overcome her this week. She could go far in Paris.
I can’t remember the last time I looked forward to the French Open as much as I am this year. The King of Clay has a tough task in defending his crown from Djokovic and others, while Serena, who’s 53-2 on clay in the last three years, has looked vulnerable at times this year. Roll on Roland Garros!
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