Matthew Stafford: One of the NFL’s most fascinating quarterbacks to cover. Opinions are often divided on this 26 year-old passer, ranging from underrated to overrated.
On one hand, Stafford has shown terrific arm strength and impressive stats in his first five years in the NFL, including being one of the few quarterbacks to pass for at least 5,000 yards in a season (2011, 5,038 yards).
On the other hand, being the sole quarterback to make 700 pass attempts in a season (727 in 2012) isn’t exactly something to proud of either. There has also been skepticism on how good Stafford’s passing stats would be without star wide receiver Calvin Johnson, otherwise known as the best wide receiver in the league right now.
Pro Football Reference’s Scott Kacsmar has compared Stafford to former NFL quarterback Drew Bledsoe, calling him “A talented, volume passer good enough to get you beat close.” Indeed, Bledsoe originally held the single season pass attempt record (691 attempts in 1994) before Stafford broke it in 2012.
There are good assets for Matthew Stafford, however. He is the 3rd fastest QB to reach 70 touchdown passes in NFL history (ranking behind QB legends Kurt Warner and Dan Marino), taking 38 games to get there. And in 2011, Stafford became one of just seven quarterbacks in NFL history to throw at least 40 touchdowns in a season (41), also leading Detroit to the playoffs that year. He’s got that going for him, as well as three consecutive seasons passing for over 4,500 yards.
However, some of Stafford’s other stats aren’t as good as his passing yardage. He has a 59.5 completion percentage in five years, and an average passer rating of 83.1. In addition, since 2011, Stafford’s completion percentage has declined (2011, he had a 63.5 percentage on passes). His 2012 season was a mixed bag. Despite nearly passing for 5,000 yards again (4,967 yards), he had a TD-INT ratio of 20-17, barely above mediocre.
And finally, we look at the theory claiming that Calvin Johnson makes Stafford better. Take a look at the chart below. Although Calvin Johnson has been on the Lions since 2007, the below chart starts in 2009, as Stafford was drafted that year.
Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson TD Comparison
– Matthew Stafford is “MS”, Calvin Johnson is “CJ”.
–Yds% relates to how many receiving yards Calvin Johnson got divided by how many yards Stafford threw for per year.)
-TD% relates to how many touchdowns Matthew Stafford threw to Calvin Johnson divided by the total amount of touchdown passes Stafford threw that year. In 2010, Stafford was injured for most of the season, hence the reason the stats for that year are blank.
| Year | MS YDS | MS TD | CJ Yds | CJ TD | Yds % | TD% |
| 2009 | 2227 | 13 | 984 | 5 | 44.2% | 38.5% |
| 2010 | – | – | – | – | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2011 | 5038 | 41 | 1681 | 16 | 33.4% | 39.0% |
| 2012 | 4967 | 20 | 1964 | 5 | 39.5% | 25.0% |
| 2013 | 4650 | 29 | 1492 | 12 | 32.1% | 41.4% |
| Total | 16882 | 103 | 6121 | 38 | 36.3% | 36.9% |
In comparison, let’s take a look at a classic QB-WR duo: Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison, in Peyton Manning’s first 5 seasons in the NFL.
Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison TD Comparison
-This set of data starts in 1998 (Manning’s first season) and ends after 2002.
-Peyton Manning is “PM” and Marvin Harrison is “MH.”
-Yds%=Number of receiving yards MH got/Number of passing yards PM passed for
-TD%=Number of TD’s MH caught/amount of TD’s PM threw
| Year | PM YDS | PMTD | MH YDS | MH TDS | Yds % | TD% |
| 1998 | 3739 | 26 | 776 | 7 | 20.8% | 26.9% |
| 1999 | 4135 | 26 | 1663 | 12 | 40.2% | 46.2% |
| 2000 | 4413 | 33 | 1413 | 14 | 32.0% | 42.4% |
| 2001 | 4131 | 26 | 1524 | 15 | 36.9% | 57.7% |
| 2002 | 4200 | 27 | 1722 | 11 | 41.0% | 40.7% |
| Total | 20618 | 138 | 7098 | 59 | 34.4% | 42.8% |
As you can see from the 2 charts above, the Yds% and TD% from Matthew Stafford to Calvin Johnson in Stafford’s first five years are significantly lower than the Yds% and TD% from Peyton Manning to Marvin Harrison during Manning’s first five years. Although times have changed since 1998-2002, taking a look at where Manning is right now should make Lions fans sleep easy about Stafford.
The difference for Manning, however, is that he had a completion percentage of at least 62.0% in 4 of his first 5 seasons (only one below that was his rookie year in 1998, a 56.7 completion percentage). Stafford has only finished with a completion percentage of at least 60.0 once in his career. In order for Stafford to see the success Peyton Manning has seen in his career, his decision-making has to improve.
That said, there is the possibility that Stafford’s inconsistent play thus far was due to poor coaching. Former Lions head coach Jim Schwartz was hired in the same year Stafford was drafted by the team, and lasted until 2013, getting fired on December 30th. Numerous Lions fans I’ve talked to agree with this. With new head coach Jim Caldwell in to play, we should be able to get a proper judgment on Matthew Stafford once and for all.
Of course, Stafford also has to be willing to improve. Earlier this year, reports came about that the quarterback didn’t think he needed to improve at all. While confident, it’s a stubborn attitude, something that Caldwell must fix in order to save Stafford’s career.
If I could describe Matthew Stafford in one phrase, it would be this: “Very talented quarterback with star potential, good yet very inconsistent.” While it is obvious the Lions do not need another quarterback, the question of how Stafford can improve his flaws is still in question, yet the amount of potential is there. As a result, expect 2014 to be the “make or break it” year for perhaps the most interesting quarterback to cover in the NFL today.
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(Stats via espn.com, pro-football-reference.com, and sportscity.com)
