In this installment of the Young Guns & Cy Youngs series, I will be reviewing the Rookie of the Year races. Last week, I took a look at the contenders for the Cy Young Award. The week before, I examined the MVP race, which I will return to next week.
This year’s Rookie of the Year race is decidedly unbalanced. The AL race features two Cy Young contenders and the MLB home run leader, while the NL race leaves much to be desired. Indeed, any of my top 5 American League contenders would be leading the National League race, a stark contrast from last year’s NL race which featured phenoms Jose Fernandez, Yasiel Puig and a host of other strong candidates.
AL Rookie Race
1. Masahiro Tanaka, P, NYY: 6-0, 2.17 ERA, 66 K, 58 IP, 0.91 WHIP
In tossing a 4-hit shutout of the Mets in his last start, Tanaka has solidified his place as the AL’s best pitcher through the early part of the season. His 0.91 WHIP leads the league, aided by a miniscule 1.1 BB/9, which combined with his excellent 10.2 K/9 gives him a stellar 9.43 K/BB ratio. Even in his worst start of the season, Tanaka still went seven innings, gave up just three runs and walked no one. In my Cy Young review I mentioned that Tanaka has been giving up too many home runs, he has allowed seven through eight starts, but he hasn’t had one hit out in his last two outings. The only player to ever win a Rookie of the Year and a Cy Young in the same season was Fernando Valenzuela in 1981. Perhaps Tanaka can be the second.
2. Jose Abreu, 1B, CWS: .271/.320/.620, 15HR, 41RBI, 28R
In the first installment of this series, I predicted that Tanaka and Abreu would be fighting for this award all year long. Thus far, that has been the case as these two are not just having Rookie of the Year seasons, but contending for the Cy Young and MVP awards as well. Abreu leads the majors in home runs and sits second in RBI, just one behind the Marlins’ Giancarlo Stanton. The Cuban defector strikes out a ton (up to 48 on the season), doesn’t walk much (just 10 so far) and has been suspect at best defensively but if he keeps slugging, he should continue to challenge Tanaka for this award.
3. Yordano Ventura, P, KC: 2-3, 2.40 ERA, 53 K, 48.2 IP, 1.13 WHIP
While no one doubted his stuff, the 22-year-old Ventura faced questions about his consistency and control when he won a spot in the Royals’ rotation this spring. While his 3.0 BB/9 is is certainly troubling, Ventura has been getting plenty of strikeouts and hasn’t allowed many hits, which has kept his ERA and his pitch counts low. Indeed, Ventura has pitched at least 6 innings in six of his eight starts, but has just once surpassed 110 pitches. That kind of efficiency from a 22-year-old power pitcher speaks volumes about Ventura’s future as an ace.
4. Yangervis Solarte, 3B, NYY: .325/.403/.504, 4 HR, 23 RBI, 17 R
Coming into the season, Solarte was expected to be a replacement-level player; a last-ditch attempt to cover the hole left by Alex Rodriguez’s suspension. So far, however, Solarte has been the Yankees best hitter and his ability to play second, third and shortstop gives the Yankees’ aging infield some much-needed flexibility. Whether he can keep it up is the question here, as his previous two seasons at AAA saw Solarte post a .745 and.727 OPS respectively. However, in 2011 playing a full season in AA, Solarte hit .329/.367/.466 in 121 games. The Yankees have to hope that his numbers thus far have been more than just a mirage.
5. Roenis Elias, P, SEA: 3-2, 3.69 ERA, 42 K, 46.1 IP, 1.38 WHIP
Though over shadowed by fellow Mariners’ pitching prospects Taijuan Walker and James Paxton, Elias quietly put up a solid season in AA last year, posting a 3.18 ERA with 121 Ks in 130 innings. Though seldom great in any of his starts, and only making it past the fifth inning three times, Elias has been everything the Mariners could have asked for thus far. He walks a few too many guys (3.9 BB/9), but has otherwise been a perfectly acceptable starter. I doubt he’ll win this award, but he has been solid nonetheless for a strengthening Mariners team.
NL Rookie Race
1. Chris Owings, SS, ARI: .270/.315/.370, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 10 R, 4 SB
Owings gets the nod here by default, leading an unimpressive NL field. Winning the shortstop gig over Didi Gregorius out of spring training, Owings has thus far been the opposite of his reputation. Posting a .330/.359/.482 line in 125 AAA games last season, the only thing keeping him from being handed the job outright was his questionable defense. So far, Owings has posted a 92 OPS+, with 100 being league average at his position, and a 0.9 defensive WAR, good for 4th in the National League. He’ll need to either keep up his stellar defense or start hitting if he hopes to stay in contention.
2. David Hale, P, ATL: 1-0, 1.65 ERA, 19 K, 32.2 IP, 1.16 WHIP
Opening the season in the Atlanta rotation, Hale impressed in his four starts, going 1-0 with a 2.31 ERA in 23.1 innings. He has since been pushed to the bullpen, where he has pitched 9.1 scoreless innings. Hale has been a generally uninteresting prospect throughout his minor league career, but has looked solid in his 43.2 major league innings since his call-up last September. It is worth noting that he has yet to allow a home run in those 43.2 innings.
3. Billy Hamilton, CF, CIN: .259/.300/.375, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 17 R, 14 SB
The preseason favorite for this award, Hamilton struggled for the season’s first three weeks, hitting a brutal .203/.246/.266. In 17 games since, he has hit a sparkling .333/.373/.521. For Hamilton, who possesses game-changing speed, he merely needs to get on-base at a semi-respectable clip and he’ll be a very valuable asset for the Reds. However, his blinding speed can lead to mistakes and over-aggression, as he’s been caught stealing a league leading five times. Still, if he can hit respectably the rest of the way, I see little reason why he couldn’t run away with this award (pun definitely intended).
4. Chris Withrow, P, LAD: 0-0, 0.95 ERA, 25 K, 19 IP, 1.16 WHIP, 2.8 H/9
Even in a loaded Dodgers bullpen, Withrow has stood out. He throws hard and has no idea where it’s going, as evidenced by his ugly 7.6 BB/9. But when you give up just 6 hits and no homers in 19 innings, you aren’t gonna get hurt too often. Withrow’s walk and hit rates should normalize, but even last year’s 3.4 BB/9 and 5.2 H/9 in 34.2 innings are perfectly acceptable for a hard-throwing late inning reliever.
5. Mike Olt, 3B, CHC: .181/.264/.467, 8 HR, 19 RBI, 12 R
Blocked by Adrian Beltre in Texas, the power-hitting Olt was traded to the Cubs in the Matt Garza deal. After hitting 28 homers in 95 AA games in 2012, Olt struggled mightily last season, hitting just .203/.303/.381 in AAA. Those struggles have partially carried over as, eight home runs aside, Olt has looked totally over-matched against major league pitching. Still, those eight homers count for something and are enough to put him above the other sub-Mendoza line rookies the senior circuit has to offer.
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